New England DIII XC

anyone want to take a shot at ranking all 11 teams and maybe top 10 individuals in the men's race?

Teams:

1 Middlebury (Returning champs, great probs best 1-3)

2 Tufts (A lot like midd, but not as packed up front I think)

3 Williams (Farwell can coach)

4 Bates (great up front, though tend to under perform later on in season i think)

5 Conn (Leduc, have a kid who runs 14:20s...)

6 Bowdoin (will choke)

7 Amherst (home course, no studs w/out yocum/corsello)

8 Wesleyan (skyler, marsh hasn't been running superb yet)

9 Hamilton (no kosgei, who knows)

10 Trinity (beat colby earlier in the season)

11 Colby (its colby)

Individuals:

1 Schmidt (strong, a lot more XC experience)

2 Rand (basically interchangable with schmidt, ill give nod to the top returner)

3 Koima (Dirty kicker, move up in the last mile)

4 Leduc (peaks well and can surprise like last year)

5 Hannan (running well)

6 Wallis (impressive this season, see no reason why he doesn't belong here)

7 Davies (strong and will run with the chase pack)

8 Dilts (always with tully)

9 Some freshman (canadian kid, what other freshman look good in the confrence?)

10 Some other Williams kid that'll step up

team:

1. Midd (one through four looks good right now)

2. Bates (Despite being beaten by Tufts, they seem to be rounding into excellent shape, great depth)

3. Tufts (Narrow loss to bates, just ahead of Williams)

4. Williams (good team as usual, but they dont seem to quite have the firepower this year)

5. Bowdoin ( Horowitz up top, and they have a very solid pack, could surprise Williams if they have a real good day)

6. Amherst (home course, nice little pack)

7. Conn (couple good runners, with Leduc up top, but dont quite have the depth that Bowdoin or Amherst does)

8. Wesleyan (having an alright season, should put them above the rest)

9. Hamilton (meh, a pack of mediocre guys)

10. Colby (not good, but they'll beat trinity)

11. Trinity (when your fifth guy is running 30:30, you know something has gone terribly wrong)

Individuals

1. Schmidt

2. Rand

3. Horowitz

4. Graboys

5. Koima

6. Davies

7. Wallis

8. Leduc

9. Hannan

10. Dilts

I expect Hebble and Sans to be right there in the 11 to 15 spots, and give Midd enough of a cushion for their fifth guy to get in before the depth of 3 4 5 of Bates, WIlliams, and Tufts.

Top frosh, Colin Cotton of Williams.

Are there any other good frosh besides Cotton in the NESCAC? Compared to last year, this freshman class seems weak.

Stem wrote:

Are there any other good frosh besides Cotton in the NESCAC? Compared to last year, this freshman class seems weak.

I agree generally, but MIT has some pretty solid frosh at least based on HS prs. For whatever reason they've either not started or dropped out of several races, so I think they've been flying under the radar. They might surprise at regionals, they might bonk though.

More importantly, what do people thinking about NESCACs this weekend? My predictions:

1. Midd 47

2. Bates 58

3. Tufts 68

4. Williams 69

5. Bowdoin 96

6. Not worth thinking about.

[/quote]

More importantly, what do people thinking about NESCACs this weekend? My predictions:

1. Midd 47

2. Bates 58

3. Tufts 68

4. Williams 69

5. Bowdoin 96

6. Not worth thinking about.[/quote]

Doesn't anyone care about the epic showdown between Amherst, Conn, and Wesleyan to see if Amherst can fend off their competitors at home and redeem themselves from their eighth place finish last year, raising themselves (sort of) out of the crappier half of the NESCAC? I know I do.

I'll go out on a limb and say:

1. Bates

2. Midd

3. Williams

4. Tufts

5. Bowdoin

Tufts could still take it though, who knows.

I think there are some freshman sprinkled around the region who are flying under the radar but do have potential. KC Fussell of Amherst isn't really a standout, but could end up becoming a factor. Bates might also have a few who could step it up. I think the class looks relatively weak since last year's class had a bunch of guys at the front of the pack.

Crazy if you think top 5 score <100 points. The top team probably rings in around 65.

1. Bates(a year experience over last year, coming into form. Hard to actually believe they're this good, but they're this good)

2. Tufts (solid and deep pack makes all the difference at CACs)

3. Williams (inertia. Last year you would have looked at their returners and said they were finally done for. Their depth and talent can rise up at any point)

4. Midd (Schmidt is a prime-time-performer in NE. Not sold on the rest. Probably will fall the most over the next few weeks)

5. Not Bowdoin (Horowitz is inconsistent, the rest are not proven, overrated for a while now -- years)

5-8. Amherst, Wesleyan, Conn, Bowdoin (Take your pick - Any could easily crack top 5 (except for Bowdoin) The first three simply have more upside than Bowdoin)

Individuals:

Tier 1

Schmidt, Rand, Koima

2:

Dilts, Hannan, Horowitz, Raduazo, Davies

3. 2xwilliams, 2xtufts, graboys, cummins, 2x conn, amherst 1, hamilton 1, bowdoin 2

jkhb wrote:

Individuals:

Tier 1

Schmidt, Rand, Koima

2:

Dilts, Hannan, Horowitz, Raduazo, Davies

3. 2xwilliams, 2xtufts, graboys, cummins, 2x conn, amherst 1, hamilton 1, bowdoin 2

If this tier prediction is correct, then Williams would almost have to be the favorite. For your team predictions to be true, Bates would probably have to get at least one more, say Wortham or Martin, within that third tier with the likes of Fitzhenry, Wallis, or LeDuc. Also, even if it is on their home course, I don't think Amherst can get someone up with guys like those three or Graboys/Cummins. Erskine just hasn't been doing too much this fall. He could do something big on the track though.

The team that will win at NESCAC's will have 4 all NESCAC, 2-first team, 2-second, and their fifth top 20... that is my prediction. I think the favorite team to win is who ever has the strongest 5th man... which team is that? we will find out.

Also which team has the best 1-5 spread, that is a good indicator? And some teams might actually have a 6-7th man that is fast enough to displace... if that matters.

----- wrote:

The team that will win at NESCAC's will have 4 all NESCAC, 2-first team, 2-second, and their fifth top 20... that is my prediction. I think the favorite team to win is who ever has the strongest 5th man... which team is that? we will find out.

Also which team has the best 1-5 spread, that is a good indicator? And some teams might actually have a 6-7th man that is fast enough to displace... if that matters.

Bates? Quite an amazing spread the past 3 races, and that's going into their subvarsity team as well

Williams has had a similar spread though. One then wonders where the spread will start. I think Koima will be faster than anyone from Bates, but Bates at least has the potential to put four in front of Willaims' two. On the flip side, I could see Williams put four ahead of all of Bates but Dilts and Hannan.

Midd was 24th last year @ Open New Englands, won NESCACS.

4th this year @ Open NEs with a new coach. What does that mean? Might have been their best showing of the season.

Bates wasn't there, so they've got to be the dark horse. If Graboys is on, they can sneak by everyone who's too preoccupied with Panther/Eph/PolarBear jerseys.

Farwell always has Williams prepped to shock with their deep middle. Even without a top-3 guy, they'll be up there.

nescac predictions:

WILLIAMS (Drinking the Little3, T-Bear Kool-aid...these guys are like the San Antonio Spurs...fighting till the end, always deep, calm and dangerous...a true dynasty, pack 4 in top 12 to eke out a close one vs. Midd)

MIDD (after breakout in track it's Patrick Hebble's show, second team all-nescac w/Davies...Schmidtt 2nd overall)

BATES (Hannan+Graboys = legit finish for Bobcats)

TUFTS (Rand wins the meet, their top 4 are all in...but where's the 5-spot??)

BOWDOIN (Horowitz tries to do it all, hangs in lead pack @3 miles, fades)

CONN

AMHERST (the curse of Tomas Morrisey)

WesXC (Cummins is on the cusp)

HAMILTON

TRINITY

COLBY

I'll take Mikey Schmidt for the win, Rand in runner-up, and Koima for 3rd. After that, in no particular order, lets go with Hannan, Horowitz, Wade Davis (sweet name), Davies, Cummins, LeDuc, Dilts, and a smattering of Williams/Tufts/Bates dudes to round out all NESCAC.

I like Bates for the win, mostly because the concept is novel and funny to me. But hey, last year Middlebury won, so anything can happen, right? For spots 2-4, I'll go Williams in second, followed closely by Middlebury and Tufts. After that, we'll see an unprecedented 4-way tie for 5th place between Amherst, Bowdoin, Conn, and Wesleyan (and as we all know, there's no such thing as a tiebreaker in NESCAC championship rules).

Midd - looked very strong at Opens. Schmidt and very solid 1-4

Tufts - Rand to win, also strong pack if Macarthur/cassidy steps up into the 5 spot

Williams - unknown 3-5, could outperform this spot

Bates - overrated, no front runner (though this will hurt them more at regionals then nescacs

Bowdoin - not a top tier team, but still stands out from the rest of the other teams

conn/amherst/wesleyan - who cares

hamilton/trinity/colby - lol

Isn't Dilts the 3rd returning performer from regionals? also if I'm not mistaken Hannan finished 10th at NESCACs last year and is in arguably much better form this year.

Schmiddty wins overall for men (25:50ish)

Williams wins team (49)

Bates/Bowdoin tie for second (79)

Eph women 1st, Midd #2

Results?????

Results and recap available here: http://nescac.com/sports/xc/2011-12/championship/championship_release