Hypothetical race between Jim Ryun and Steve Ovett in their respective primes. Who would win?

Interesting how that old 'cut and paste' job that's been posted on here years ago from a fan, compares with the top 10 list compiled by 3 of the world's most well known statisticians in the book, "World's Greatest in Athletics" in 2015.

1. El G

2. Coe

3. Morceli

4. Elliott

5. Cram

6. Ovett

7. Snell

8. Keino

9. Walker

10. Ryun

Looks more accurate and from independent experts. Based on their judgement, looks like Ovett would beat Ryun in a hypothetical race on a synthetic track, especially in a championship setting. Ryun would more likely win on a cinder track.

Deanouk wrote:Looks more accurate and from independent experts. Based on their judgement, looks like Ovett would beat Ryun in a hypothetical race on a synthetic track, especially in a championship setting. Ryun would more likely win on a cinder track

is this a joke ???

ovett never even broke 3'30 on a synthetic

his best 800 time was 1'44.0

Ryun ran 1'44.3 on soft asphalt, not even a proper synthetic, with huge amount of wide running on bends, when ill, on hugely windy day from vid & all with a prelim coupla hours before !!!

how is ovett going to beat that ???

I may have been cutting and pasting my own work, Deano. It was a bit of fun. A little witty I like to think. Can't see how the experts had Ryun at 10. How'd they get it so wrong?

Again, to quote John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious." Do you live in Colorado?

No. I'm probably a little biased against coe.

Deanouk wrote:

Interesting how that old 'cut and paste' job that's been posted on here years ago from a fan, compares with the top 10 list compiled by 3 of the world's most well known statisticians in the book, "World's Greatest in Athletics" in 2015.

1. El G

2. Coe

3. Morceli

4. Elliott

5. Cram

6. Ovett

7. Snell

8. Keino

9. Walker

10. Ryun

Looks more accurate and from independent experts. Based on their judgement, looks like Ovett would beat Ryun in a hypothetical race on a synthetic track, especially in a championship setting. Ryun would more likely win on a cinder track.

El Guerrouj, Coe, Snell and Keino have the best track records.

eqwrpoiqwj wrote:

If Ryun ran 3:33.1 with an opening 300 in 46.5, then he ran his last 1200m in 2:46.6, which is slightly superior by himself with no perfect conditions, no pacer something like the last 300, whereas Manangoi had the pacer to the last 100, and no Mondo track to Manangoi's 3:33.62 World Champ's win. Cheruiyot, who paced Manangoi until the end, ran 3:33.99. The 1st lap was in 1:01.63, and the first 300m appeared to be 46 flat, maybe a couple tenths slower at most, with a slightly slower 2:47.6 and 2:48 close...

there is now a huge controversy over Ryun's finishing 300

i used to accept the iaaf pdf of saying he split 2'53.5 at 1200, meaning 39.6 finish which is 52.8 pace !

however, i felt uneasy at the 100m by 100m splits on that race which seem odd as wouda needed helluva lot of timers for this

therefore some uncertainty creeps in

then a guy who has listed all of Ryun's races offers this

offers 2'55.0

i doubt it is a 1320y time as the 880y time is hugely off from iaaf book : 1'56.0 v 1'57.7

the most shocking is this where blogster gives quite detailed account

"And what a showdown it was. With a pedestrian opening 400m of 60.9, Ryun and Keino lurked at the back of the pack, content to let others do the work. Upon hearing the first 400m split, though, Keino decided he'd go from over 800m out and floored it.

The next 400m was covered in 56.6 seconds as Ryun tucked in behind Keino.

800m slipped by in 1:57.5. It wasn't World Record pace, but it was a race.

Desperate to escape Ryun's punishing kick, Keino kept the pressure on but could not shake Ryun. The third 400m was covered in 58.5 for a 1200m split of 2:56 flat. Virtually neck and neck with Ryun, Keino strained to summon additional speed while Ryun dropped his head and started his kick. A gap appeared as Ryun took the lead with 300m to go.

5 meters then 10 then 20-Ryun was moving away with ease. Keino was beaten, but Ryun was was not done. 20 meters became 30 and at the top of the homestretch, Ryun's lead grew to almost 40 meters as he crossed the line in 3:33.1.

His final 300m had taken only 37.1 seconds, equivalent to a 50 second last 400m. His last 1200m was clocked in 2:46, one of the fastest ever recorded."

that claim is utterly shocking !!!

37.1 is 49.4 !!! pace !!!

a 37.1 finish in a 3'33.1 on a well used dirt track with temperatures in the 90s !!!

this is beyond belief !!!

Ryun definitely did all the work in the last 300

he was level with Keino upto ~ 1200 but then put in that incredible kick

Keino apparently put in a last lap of 57.5 & if you assume he ran even pace

( he was damn well trying on that last lap as he even dipped on the line on a now extinct vid on youtube

Keino although well beaten still wanted a fast clocking ! )

if Keino extrapolated ran 43.1 for last 300 assuming even pace, for Ryun to take out 40m on someone running this comes to a calculation estimate of when Keino has run 300 - 0 = 260m, Ryun crossing the line

-> 43.1 * ( 260 / 300 ) =

37.3

this tallies with above & if Keino actually also sped up in last lap which is likely, say, 42.5 - 42.75, the estimate rvises to

36.83 - 37.05

it's possible though Keino may have run fastest lap of his race in last lap which is standard which maya been closer to 42.0, but all that does is offset if the gap wasn't quite 40m at the end

suffice to say, there is plent of evidence to show 37-flat is quite possible for Ryun's last 300

visual evidence does indicate Ryun's last 300 was likely much more like 37-flat than 39.6 as iaaf claim

here is brief vid of part of last lap showing how huge the gap grew in last 300

( also Ryun did some wide bend running at start of last lap, it may have been quite prolonged

he also ran wide on 2nd bend of 1st lap chasing Keino, so there was some extra distance run by Ryun in this race

someone may have the full vid & it hopefully has a running clock

No. This is possibly more laughable than Ryun being a 1:38/3:24 man!

I was looking the other day in a reference book which had Ryun's 100m splits given for his 1500m WR in 67, to the nearest 0.1. Now I haven't seen the entire race (has anyone?) but I think I'm right in thinking that the track in LA was a 440yd one?

IF it was, then I find it doubtful that anyone could have kept accurate split times for each 100m stretch, whether there in person or looking at a video copy of the race. So on this I agree with your questioning.

On a 440yd track, I guess they would have a mark for 110yds, 220yds, 330yds.

Well obviously it's easy enough to run a Mile, it's just 4 laps with the same start and finish lines. 4 x 440yds = 1760yds = 1609.344m

That means that each lap on a 440yds track is = 402.336m. Let's say 402.34m

Therefore, when I looked into the breakdown of a 1500m run on a 440 (402.34m) track, I realised that there could be up to 19 different marks on the track for the duration of a 1500m!

N.B. I am not sure, and I would welcome any info from posters who have had experience of running on 440yd tracks, especially from the 60's, but I presume a 1500m race would finish on the same finish line for all other races!? In other words, the same finish line as a 220yd sprint, Mile, etc.

If this is the case, then a 1500m would be 3 complete laps of the track, plus the initial "3/4 ish" start on 1st lap.

402.34 x 3 = 1207.02m. Let's round it to 1207m

That means a 1500m race would be 3 complete laps (1207m) plus an initial 293m at the start.

So a 1500m would start at 0m, and the line would be 293m from first going through finish line, and 109.34m past the finish line (i.e. they start at a point 109.34m anti-clockwise from the finish at end of home straight).

The first 100m gone mark would therefore be 193m from the finish, which is the same as 209.34m past the finish line.

Around this first 100m into the race, there would also be marks on the track (wouldn't there?) for 220yds (201.17m from the finish). The distance between this line and the first 100m into a 1500m would be 8.17m (201.17 -193m).

It gets even more complicated when you realise that to take 100m splits, there would need to be another mark for 500m into a 1500m race, which would be 195.34m from the finish line and 207m past the finish line on the second lap.

You would also need a mark for 900m ~ 197.68m from finish, 204.66 past the finish line.

And yet another for 1300m, which would be the 200m from home mark and be situated 202.34m past the finish line.

So there would be 5 marks on the track - i) 100m into a 1500m race gone, ii) the 500m into a race, iii) 900m, iv) 1300m (200m from home) and v) the 220yds line. That's 5 marks to take splits from within a distance of 8.17m.

There would be similar problems at the start of the straight, where again 5 different markers would be needed to take accurate splits. You would need ones for 200m into the race, 600m, 1000m, 1400m (100m from the finish) and there would probably be a line for 110yds.

5 lines within a space of 7.58m (110yds = 100.58m from finish line, 200m into a 1500m would be 93m from finish)

Near the finish line, only 4 marks are needed: - The finish line, 300m into a 1500 race (7m past the finish line), 700m gone (4.6m past the finish line) and 1100m into a 1500 race (2.34m past the finish line)

Then we have the start line.

Apart from the 1500 start line, which is 293m from the finish line (109.34m past it), there will also be:-

-a 330yds line , 301.76m from the finish (100.58m past it);

- a 400m line into a 1500m, which will be 295.34m from the finish (107m past it);

-an 800m into a 1500 race line, which would be 297.68m from finish (104.66m past it);

-a 1200m into a 1500m race line, which would be 300m from the finish (102.34m past it).

That's 5 different marks needed to record 100m splits for a 1500m race, all within a stretch of 8.76m. That's about 1.1sec in time terms for someone running a 50 sec lap.

I find it highly unlikely that there was 4 or 5 official timekeepers situated in 4 different points around the track to get all those split times for metres and yards!

Looking at the only (edited) video footage I've seen, here,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WhkjIrzTiEA

there is no onscreen clock and no obvious markings for the split times I've outlined above, on the track. So I think it would be almost impossible to offer 100m splits from footage viewed on a screen.

In addition, it would be quite likely for timekeepers to make the odd mistake, if they have to remember which of the 5 lines is which, and at which one to take each of the 3 or more split times. Choosing just one line wrong at each of the 4 points around the track would seriously skew the overall split times. If a couple of mistakes are made, then the split times start looking ridiculous.

If, on a 440yd track, someone takes the 1200m split time at the start line, which is exactly where it is taken from on a 400m track, then he is actually recording the athlete's time for 1207m, not 1200m. Therefore the last 300m split could be out by 0.9secs. That will then have a knock on effect of making the penultimate 100m (from 400 to 300m from home) look too slow, and the 100m between 300 and 200m from home too quick.

Even if you just use the 110yd, 220yd, 330yd splits, there is a lot of recalculation that needs to take place.

If you use the 220yd mark on a track, then you have to add on 8.17m of time to find the 100m split time, add on 5.83m to find the 500 split, 3.49m to find the 900m split, and then take off 1.17m of time to get the 1300m and last 200m split!

I think this is why there seem to be quite a few anomalies in split times I've seen for metric races run on an imperial 440yd track.

The next question is why would you accept the split times given on a website by someone you don’t know, the provenance of which you also don’t know, and dismiss splits given by more recognized and respected sources like T&FN or the IAAF?

I agree with you that the IAAF book does have some anomalies in it, and certainly shouldn’t be taken as 100% accurate without some further investigating. I would question how Hymans got 100m split times, BUT we have other sources to work with.

The split’s given on the link you gave are quite clearly 440yd splits. Let’s focus on the last lap.

T&FN (taken from their publication, “The Milers”) quotes Ryun’s (we have to hope it wasn’t Keino’s, as he was still in front of Ryun at this point) time ‘with 440yds to go…was 2:39.2’. This supports the fact it was a 440 track and not a 400m one.

440yds = 402.344m, so if his last 440 was 53.9, then his last 400m would have been c 53.6.

Meaning his time with 400m to go (his 1100m split) should have been 2:39.5.

Now the IAAF book has it at 2:39.8. So we can pretty much guarantee that his last 400m was somewhere between 53.3 (IAAF’s split) and 53.6 (T&FN).

Now the 2:55.0 that the link gives is backed up by T&FN, which states that he went ‘past three quarters in a fast 2:55.0’.

¾ of a mile = 1207m. So if he passed 1207m in 2:55.0, then his time at 1200m would have been 2:54.0. That means his last 300m was 39.1.

This is backed up by other split times given by T&FN. It states that after passing Keino at the ¾ mark, his ‘next 210yds (N.B = 192m) took only 24.6 seconds,..’

24.6 for 210yds = 25.6 for 200m. Therefore if his last 300m was 39.1 (based on a 1200m split of 2:54.0) and his next 200m was 25.6, then his time at 1400m should have been 3:19.5. ……….AND the T&FN article goes on to state that Ryun ‘continued …. with a last 100m of 13.5’. Which is exactly what it should have been based on 2 other split times given.

T&FN also states, ‘Ryun’s last 320yds (!?) took only 38.1 seconds (equivalent to 300m in 39.3)’.

Now actually if you work it out, that is actually wrong…….

320 yards = 292.608m.

If you divide 38,1 by 292.608 and then x by 300m, you get 39.06 (39.1)

The IAAF book agrees on the last 100m being 13.5. It also has his last 200m as being 26.6.

Now they give Ryun’s last 300m as 39.6, which is 0.5 out from the T&FN figures. This is a bit of a discrepancy, but could be explained somewhat if it was based on Keino’s split going through 1200m rather than Ryun’s, who would have been likely 0.2-0.3 behind.

Either way there is a lot of evidence to propose these as the following parameters for Ryun: -

Last 400m ~ somewhere between 53.3 and 53.6;

Last 300m ~ somewhere between 39.1 and 39.6;

Last 200m ~ around 26.6

Last 100m ~ around 13.5

Anything suggesting his last 300m was close to 37 seconds is nonsense

no

i answer with 1 handle

is this a joke ?

the short Keino offered little drafting for 6'2 Ryun

we aren't talking giant in Billy drafting runt like coe in firenze !!!

Ryun ran ~ 2.75m extra on 2nd bend & likely same amount on penultimate bend as well wide of Keino at start of bend & when vid shows end of bend

Ryun ran at worst, just those 2 bends ~ 5.5m extra, meaning his route-1 time was at worst

~ 3'32.2

before even considering whatever extra run on other bends/dirt track/jog to 300m/95F/etc

can't you listen for 100th time :

"i looked up at temperature clock & it said 95 degrees"

tell us what your temperature reading was trackside ???

impress board !!!

is this a joke ???

some guy 6000 miles away in a studio commentaing on news film, not actual live tv saw temperature clock ???

is this a joke ???

anything above 75F ruins a 1500

it was 95F for his race !!!

is this a joke ???

it is still dirt

dirt is dirt

it had been chewed-up by time Ryun ran WR

it was not 1st run of meet on pristine dirt

95F & dirt ruins all those comparisons

so surely you ask not to dare compare to noah's 3'32.07 or bayi's 3'32.16, the fastest ever championships 1500s, followed by 3'32.32 by hicham then bernie in 3'32.44

you can even include '99 when hicham ran even quicker, beating esteves 3'30.57, cacho 3'31.54, dias 3'31.83

these are greatest championship ever 1500 runners as they ran fastest ever clockings after rounds

any one else is so damn slow they don't get a mention...

is this a joke ???

he says stadium clock said 95F

what was your observation from the stands ?

he ran it in busy meet with lot of races in those 2 days

badly chewed-up track

Ryun ran 3'51.1 solo

bayi beat it by 0.1s on synthetic

impress us, who else ever ran fast mile solo ?

or even fast 1500 ?

i remember when coe once tried to solo a mile on a dirt track

he coudn't even break 3'54 !!!

absolutely worthless !

is this a joke ?

Ryun ran at least 5.5m extra on bends just from brief footage online

you think 6'2 Ryun woud get much drafting from a 5'9 Keino ???

do you understand simple physics ?

woud you expect Ryun to have got full-drafting if paced to any bell by this guy

is this a joke ???

it was 95F !!!

how is that reasonable for 1500 ???

chewed-up dirt in 2 day meet

just rubbish 3'32.5 drafted to virtual end

field killed of by brutal US trials & aouita coudn't run 1500/5k

aouita ran 3'34.82 that year with 36.14 finish

wouda totally crushed anyone in the 1500 !!!

anyhows. hicham, noah, esteves, bayi, cacho, dias, bernie, all hugely quicker than Ryun ever ran for 1500

i'd call those the greatest 7 championship 1500 guys of all time, as they have fastest ever clockings after rounds

calculo wrote:

Credit Limit wrote:Clearly Calculo

anyhows. hicham, noah, esteves, bayi, cacho, dias, bernie, all hugely quicker than Ryun ever ran for 1500

i'd call those the greatest 7 championship 1500 guys of all time, as they have fastest ever clockings after rounds

The 1999 & 2000 1500m races were paced finals, this is a false premise. If you take these two races out of the mix the real fastest Championship racers are Coe, Bayi, Walker then Jipcho.

Specifico wrote:Highest recorded temp in LA on July 8th 1967 was 71F! according to one site, and 22C (71.6F) according to another. That's almost identical to the temp in London for the World 1500m

is this a joke ???

do you have no clue about bowl effect in a stadium ???

So we have 2 independent US websites offering historical data, that are identical

is this a joke ???

see above & bowl-effect

Ryun said temperature clock in stadium said 95F

what was your measurement that day ???

No way was Ryun running in 97F. If he or someone claimed to see it on a thermometer, then it was wrong or they couldn't read it properly. Or it had been placed directly in a focused area of sunlight

is this a joke ???

what as your measurement of stadium temperature ???

The official temperature was 71F, perfect conditions for running a mile

no

outside temperatures, NOT stadium temperature

what was your stadium reading ???

air temperature was a relatively moderate 90 degrees, the stadium court was baking at 122 degrees

that is 32F difference !!!

Surface temperatures on the rubberized hard courts rose to 153 degrees during the match, while air temperatures outside the stadium were 104 degrees

that's a 49F difference !!!

how about book stating 95F ?

you there in stadium to measure it different ???

"the temperature was 95F...

offer your stadium temperature reading that day ???

how about emma in rio :

The Olympics last year, I had ran a lot of it solo and it was 95 degrees

official temperature for that mid-morning race was only 75F

stadium was

20F !!!

higher !!!

so why she claim 95F if official airport temperature was only 75F ???

why woud WC lie ???

impress board

after that, impress board with what you recorded the temperature at ringside in the coliseum that day for Ryun's 3'33.1

what was your clocking ???

calculo wrote:

Deanouk wrote:Looks more accurate and from independent experts. Based on their judgement, looks like Ovett would beat Ryun in a hypothetical race on a synthetic track, especially in a championship setting. Ryun would more likely win on a cinder track

is this a joke ???

ovett never even broke 3'30 on a synthetic

his best 800 time was 1'44.0

Ryun ran 1'44.3 on soft asphalt, not even a proper synthetic, with huge amount of wide running on bends, when ill, on hugely windy day from vid & all with a prelim coupla hours before !!!

how is ovett going to beat that ???

Are you a joke? You've stated here many times that Ovett was capable of 1:43 flat or sub. You've stated that he was in that sort of shape in both 1978 and 1980. You've claimed that he would have ran at least low 1:43 (and broken the WR) in the 1978 European final if he hadn't chased Coe so much on his suicidal first lap. You've also claimed that Ovett was capable of 3:27 here just the other week.

These are all reasonable claims, btw.

Ovett wasn't a clock chaser. He wanted to beat the competition he faced. Times don't mean as much as race victories, as times are set in different conditions, tracks, so many different variables which your psuedo-maths can never fully redress. And that's why nobody could say who would win out of such similar talents as Ryun and Ovett.

argv wrote:

The idea of a 1v1 race is intriguing. Any links/videos of this being done?

No need to be there and take temperature when 2 sets of official weather stations recorded the maximum temp in LA that day as 71F.

Tennis courts are much smaller than athletic stadiums so using anecdotes from tennis matches has no baring on temp inside an athletic stadium.

Of course some areas inside a track will be warmer than others, but the only stat that is relevant is the air temperature. If the air temp was 22C in and around London stadium for 1500 final, and the air temp in LA on the day Ryun ran 3:33, then the conditions were the same. Just because you choose to believe what one person says they saw on a thermometer 50 years ago, does not change fact that the official air temp was 22C/71F.

And IF a temp inside one stadium can give a higher reading than the air around it, then the same can be said for all stadiums. You stick a thermometer in a specific place in direct sunlight in the London stadium at a set time then it could also give a much higher reading.

The only temp that is relevant is the official air temp taken in that surrounding area.

looking at the film you link, for the last 330y, we have an unbroken segment from the penultimate turn to past the 220y marker, and Ryun appears to go from the 110y mark to the 220y mark in just under 12 seconds. The youtube clock reads 36 seconds and had just changed when Ryun hits the first line and 47 s but about to change to 48s when he hits the 220y marker. I need to get a watch, so you'll have to do the exact timing yourselves (of course, we don't know that the film runs at exactly the time of the race but it looks right to me).

So, around 37 flat for the last 330y is actually credible from the film.

Coevett wrote:

argv wrote:

The idea of a 1v1 race is intriguing. Any links/videos of this being done?

https://youtu.be/WO6aZPv980Q

Cram was just too slow off the mark, but the outfit Coe had on must have really slowed him down that day.

Here is a nice SI article from July 1967 about the race. It doesn't mention the temperature but says his last quarter was 54 seconds. It also says that he did it with ease and has a quote from Ryun saying that he could have run another 120y easily at that pace.

https://www.si.com/vault/1967/07/17/610094/the-best-record-yet

There is also an article from an LA newspaper with the headline of Ryun's wr that day, but the article itself requires registration.

https://www.newspapers.com/newspage/165372636/

Ryun 3:46.7; Ovett 3:48.4 ...

No, you can't use those markers for splits if this was indeed a 440yd track. The line you are using on the back straight was the line used to start the race, but on a 440yd track (which = 402.344m), then the 400m mark would be 2.3m before this line at end of first lap, 4.6m on 2nd and 7m behind on the 3rd. Therefore that start line would have been specially drawn on for a metric race, but can't be used for taking split times, as it would represent 402.344 at end of first lap, 804.69m at end of 2nd, and 1207.03m on last lap. So you are timing a stretch from 1207.03m to a mark 220yds from the finish line.

220yds = 201.68m, so 220yds (201.68m) from 1500m finish line is 1298.32m

So you are using a stretch from 1207.03m to 1298.32m, which equals 91.29m not 110yds. If he ran that stretch in 12 flat, then that equates to a 13.1 for 100m.

Unfortunately, any markings on a 440yd track for a metric race of 1500m, have to be viewed with a lot of additional calculations. They aren't particularly useful.