RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

Sure. That sounds probable and it would be a great accomplishment. Earlier, I was talking about the highest possible finish.

yeah, although i see him running a 27:06-27:10 this year in a really fast timed trialed 10k this year preferably in brussles. I think his peak in the 10k would be around 26:58-59ish but not much faster. what do u guys think?

Truth and Honesty wrote:

yeah, although i see him running a 27:06-27:10 this year in a really fast timed trialed 10k this year preferably in brussles. I think his peak in the 10k would be around 26:58-59ish but not much faster. what do u guys think?

Would or will?

I think this year he could or would run 27:00-27:05 but won't since he won't have an opportunity and even if he were to run again after worlds I'd think he has to be too tired to really come up big after everything this year.

But I don't think he's reaching his limit yet, I think he just hit a new plateau to work up from and that is basically about a 13:00-13:05 & 27:00-27:10 pleateau.

I'd guess he takes a nice big break late this summer and gets back to some basework in the fall and will probably get a good 4-6 months of just running and strength before he really starts racing again. He'll go to Europe for a full season and I think he'll be very competitive over there next summer especially at the 5K and 10K. Not winning races but just being right up in there when the pressure has been applied. When Rupp gets to the point where he is smelling blood at that level I think he'll take it up another notch.

I think he'll pr at 1500/mile/3000/5000 & 10000 next summer even if he happens to pr at 5000 & 10000 before this summer is over.

Yeah but how far do you think he'll improve. No one constantly improves forever. Rupp will eventually hit his peak like evryone else probably around 26:58 which is not bad at all. I don't see him running any faster than that. It would be strange for a guy to go 27:36 to running a 26:55 in like a year. His max will be 26:58-27:02 for like the next for years. Pretty damn fast for a non-african if you ask me.

Truth and Honesty wrote:

Yeah but how far do you think he'll improve. No one constantly improves forever. Rupp will eventually hit his peak like evryone else probably around 26:58 which is not bad at all. I don't see him running any faster than that. It would be strange for a guy to go 27:36 to running a 26:55 in like a year. His max will be 26:58-27:02 for like the next for years. Pretty damn fast for a non-african if you ask me.

Rupp's PR's at 3K-10K are pretty deceptive, keeping in mind that his PR is really 27:33 and it's from 2 years ago. He was not a 27:36 TOP END runner last year, he was a guy who only raced 2 10k's and they were both championship races. I haven't done the research, but Ihighly doubt there were more than 1 or 2 other runners in the Olympic 10K (if any) that actually came that close to their PR during that race in Beijing.

He went from 13:30 (also from 2 years ago) to 13:18 in an indoor race where he never was stretched thin. To me that right there tells me he's already (and has been for a while) beyond a 27:33 or 27:36 guy. His 40-30 drill and cross country domination last fall just showed how much strength he gained from 2 years prior his 800's, 1500's and finishing kicks have showed how much more speed than 2 years ago. His 13:18i showed in the middle how much faster he is than 2 years ago. The plain fact is he is way beyond being the 27:33 runner he was in 2007, so he's not really coming down from that mark in terms of his own fitness progression, though according to the books he is.

Keep in mind that Bekele went from 13:13 in 2001 to 12:52 in 2003 (21 second improvement over 2 years, which is even tougher at that level) and 26:49 in 2003 to 26:20 in 2004 (29 seconds in a year).

Shihine?

27:26 in 2002 to 26:58 in 2003 (28 seconds) to 26:39 in 2004 (another 19 seconds)! His 5K went from 13:21 in 2002 to 13:06 in 2003 (15 seconds) to 12:47 in 2004 (another 19 seconds for 5K)!

Until Rupp runs 2-3 years (minimum) on the European circuit I don't think I'll be convinced he's near his top. Bekele started his campaign in Europe in 2000 but his best years in terms of 5K & 10K marks were 2004-2005. Shihine was on the Euro campaign in 2002 and running his best 5K & 10K marks in 2004 with his 7:29 3K pr in 2005.

Ok.... so how soon do you think Rupp will totally destroy the distance wrs?

Truth and Honesty wrote:

Ok.... so how soon do you think Rupp will totally destroy the distance wrs?

Haha, come on you get my point right?

If guys like Bekele can go from the 27:20 and 13:20 range and improve by 20-30 seconds in each event for several years while already near or under the 13:00 - 27:00 barriers to start with, why should we assume that Rupp is near his top end when he hasn't even tested himself in Europe?

He's only running 90 miles a week this year and they plan to keep adding another 5 every year. If he stays even mostly healthy and is running 105-110 I see no reason not to expect he continues to get faster.

But to be honest I think he's near 27:05 right now and with 4 or more years to keep working at it I think the big barrier he'll be facing is 26:50. I think he'll get under 27:00 and it won't be a fluke and he'll immediately set his sights further. I think he's as good as the Big Mazunga for 5K and I think he'll get under 12:55 in the next 3-4 years.

No world records, but then again, there haven't been world records in those events for quite some time so maybe that kind of runner is a serious contender at worlds and olympics.

As a fan of the sport I think it's just great to have someone looking this great right now and making guys like Derrick, Jager, Fernandez and Puskedra think outside of a 20 year old box (which roughly started the years they were born).

Fair enough is good to be optimistic. I think he's in 27:05 shape too but he won't be running that in a champioship 10k tactic race. Like I said, if he runs in brussels he can do it but we have to wait and be PATIENT and don't get ahead over ourselves. He has to brake 27:13 first before we start saying he'll do this and that (not saying he won't). You put runners under a lot of pressure when you guys do that especially our best U.S distance runners. People were saying ritz was going to be the first sub 27 non-african when he got 3rd in 2001 in world xc. And don't get me started on alan webb.In 2006 people were saying he can run a 12:45 5k alot like your doing to rupp right now. Its nice to aim your goals high but at the same time be patient and humble. 26:50 seems little bit beyond him and I think you are underestimating these barriers. Point is we don't know what he is capable of right now for a fact and we have to wait till berlin. Its fun to speculate though. And I wish him well.

I fully understand what you're saying and the only reason that I'm willing to make the bigger statement for Rupp is simply his constant progression and consistency over the past 5 or more years. He's had a couple years that seemed to level out but only followed by big years shortly after and never a step backwards.

Believe it or not I put a lot of stock in the fact that he basically opened his cross season with that 40-30 workout and they way he accomplished it, and knowing that he could have gone even further back then. It's one thing to know he went a mile longer than Pre and every other Oregon runner, but I think it's important to know that he went a mile longer than HE had ever gone before, and he did it to open his cross country season and alone.

twentyseven o something wrote:

Believe it or not I put a lot of stock in the fact that he basically opened his cross season with that 40-30 workout and they way he accomplished it.

The Rupp 40-30 is equivelent to Dean's 50-50.

Enough of the lame rationale of "Nobody saw Teg getting fourth." RUPP IS NOT TEG. Teg went into the champs already having run a world class 13:04. And by having run I mean there was an actual result of 13:04 with Teg's name next to it. The only thing Rupp has done is put his shoe back on and win a college race and outkicked a guy who is pushing 30 and was recovering from a marathon just 1 month prior. "But he made it look so easy." Of course he made it look easy. He ran a meager 27:52 and 14:07 for Christ sake! Those times would not even make a top 50 annual list. The top Africans could run 27:50 while walking the entire last lap and waving to the crowd(of course they won't because they are not tools like Rupp).

The truth is, and stay with me fanboys, Rupp has yet to do anything world class. 3:39(not world class), 13:18(not world class), 7:44(but he was sick or something) 30/40(like the poster said above, it's like Dean's 50/50). None of these convert to 27:05 until he actually runs a 27:05. Than maybe you can say he might pull a Teg and not sound completely disrespectful.

This comment almost surely comes from someone who's been stuck at a PR for a long time despite countless attempts to improve, and it's probably a mediocre at best mark and surely not someone who went to Europe to race.

Here's the problem with your nonsense, it means your only as good as your PR no matter what the circumstances and conditions. Does that sound like good reasoning and judgement? Additionally it implies that a PR (no matter when it was set is not only your limitation but also your constant state of fitness. That means that Teg is a 13:04 every day since he ran it? Is Abdi a 27:16 every day and Meb a 27:13 guy yesterday and tomorrow? You have a point, and yet you also miss the point. It's not always surprising to people in the know (i.e. coaches, friends, training partners) when someone goes out and sets a huge mark because all the indicators were already there. But then you probably said he was only a 13:30 guy last fall. And you were probably one of the guys saying he'd never go under 4.

Regarding that 40-30 workout I understand it was a benchmark workout at one of the top running universities in NCAA history. A prominant US distance coach said that Rupp could run the AR, by himself right then, when he heard about that workout.

"The 30-40 consists of this: Run the first half of a 400-meter lap in 40 seconds, the second half in 30 seconds. And repeat, as often as you can stand to do it. It requires repeatedly pushing into anaerobic territory, recovering slightly and doing it again.

"The record was five miles, by Steve Prefontaine," said Alberto Salazar, Rupp's coach and a former Oregon star. "I think the furthest I ever made it was four miles."

Running at the Nike campus track Saturday morning, with the leaves swept out of Lane 1, Rupp pushed through one of the toughest track workouts of his career, speeding up and slowing down over and over -- for 24 laps. That's six miles, completed in 27 minutes, 57 seconds.

"I thought I'd struggle to get through four miles," Rupp said. "I just took it one lap at a time because that's more manageable than 'Nine laps to go.'

Going over a mile longer than Chapa, Centrowitz Sr., Salazar, Geis, Prefontaine and McChesney is in no way, shape or form equivalent to Karnazes feet except that no other Americans have accomplished either.

wow, I never imagined this thread would reach 8 pages.

Again, I know my original post sounded kind of stupid with "new ass hole".

FACT 001 wrote:

wow, I never imagined this thread would reach 8 pages.

Again, I know my original post sounded kind of stupid with "new ass hole".

So clearly you are immature, insecure, enjoy self aggrandizement and are the real "ass hole" here.

Pat yourself on the back and then set about growing up and posting a question in a more respectful way next time.

The only thing Rupp has done is put his shoe back on and win a college race and outkicked a guy who is pushing 30 and was recovering from a marathon just 1 month prior. "But he made it look so easy." Of course he made it look easy. He ran a meager 27:52 and 14:07 for Christ sake!

Defeating the current 10k CR holder (who was also 3 seconds under the old 5k indoor record) who was working together with the Arkansas school record holder just to break him, after a 5k prelim, is no mere "college race." Then coming back and winning the 5k final, after losing your shoe, against a historically very deep field. In fact the entire 2008-2009 year was one of the deepest for distances ever, and Rupp managed to win 6 titles in 9 months, and never lose a 3000m or above race, the most perfect male college year ever.

As far as the USATF win over "a guy who is pushing 30." Ritz is what, 26, going on 27? And what is the peak age for a Euro runner? 28 give or take a little? As far as a "meager 27:52". Times don't matter much in championships, winning does. And, Rupp was the first ever to unite the NCAA and USATF 10k titles.

Only a bigoted fool compares Rupp to Dean K. How do you know anything more than Abdi (27:16), the 2nd fastest American ever, who himself said Rupp had probably surpassed him?

I'm not sure if you meant to, but you replied to me and appeared to post quotes that were not mine.

FACT 001 wrote:

I dont know, something tells me that the africans are going to gang up on him and tear him a new asshole.

I don't think ganging up will be an issue they probably don't even know or care who he is. Its like asking if the slow middle school kid (who only qualified to state because his district stinks) is going to beat the best high school kids at state. They will put it to him but only by accident because they are just way out of his league.

From reading this thread, just the facts ma'am:

The Africans are not going to "gang up on Rupp." He's not considered a factor.

Rupp is the fittest he's ever been. He's PR'd 800 through 5K. This means he's probably better than a two-year old 27:33 PR.

Rupp has greatly improved one of his weak aspects: his closing speed. This is good.

HOWEVER, everyone who's competitive at the world level has excellent closing speed. He won't suddenly be outkicking everybody like he can good collegiates.

He is confident and realistic. This is good. Probably won't pull a Fam and lead early nor run way back and finish 20th.

So I predict he'll run a smart, gutsy race and place 8th, moving up through the ranks. Yay to me for contributing nothing to this thread.

music is happiness wrote:

From reading this thread, just the facts ma'am:

The Africans are not going to "gang up on Rupp." He's not considered a factor.

Rupp is the fittest he's ever been. He's PR'd 800 through 5K. This means he's probably better than a two-year old 27:33 PR.

Rupp has greatly improved one of his weak aspects: his closing speed. This is good.

HOWEVER, everyone who's competitive at the world level has excellent closing speed. He won't suddenly be outkicking everybody like he can good collegiates.

He is confident and realistic. This is good. Probably won't pull a Fam and lead early nor run way back and finish 20th.

So I predict he'll run a smart, gutsy race and place 8th, moving up through the ranks. Yay to me for contributing nothing to this thread.

Hah, actually you contributed a very rational and realistic scenario. Here's to hoping he's has a little luck and has a shot at 5th! If he's hanging in the with big boys and dropping a few of them over the last 1200 it'll be a BIG step in the right direction. He's facing more top East Africans than ever before in the event that is most dominated by East Africans.