No, I've been very consistent. I stated very clearly on the last page: "We don't know for sure who would have won if Jakob in his 2024 form showed up to Tokyo, and we're not going to get answers from looking at very different prior championships nor from looking at prior time trials."
You keep trying to find answers from very different contexts in the past to try to demonstrate that a past version of Jakob would have beaten the current version of Hocker. It's futile. Those very different past contexts don't apply.
You’re not being “consistent,” you’re just making your argument unfalsifiable. By your logic, nothing Jakob has ever done can tell us anything about how he’d handle Hocker’s Tokyo splits, because every prior race is a “different context.” That’s not analysis. Track has always used prior races to assess what athletes are capable of in new situations. That’s why people point to Jakob's times when discussing his ceiling, and why Hocker’s 12:58 is rightly celebrated. If we dismiss every data point as irrelevant context, then we may as well never compare anyone across eras, races, or conditions. The Florence 12:48 wasn’t some random time trial, it directly answers the question of whether Jakob could handle a 7:52/5:06 finish. He’s literally done better (7:46/5:02). That’s not cherry-picking, that’s evidence. You can keep saying “we don’t know,” but the numbers all point in the same direction: a healthy Jakob has more ways to win than Hocker has shown. Nothing wrong with that. It seems like you are taking offense to the premise of the thread, which is fine. OP was rude in saying his win was an asterisk.
I extend to you the same invitation I gave to freekiprop in post 138.
Instead of looking at very different past contexts which don't apply to how the race was run in Tokyo, imagine inserting 2024 Jakob into Tokyo in the way the race actually transpired.
We know from Fisher's post-race interview that he was determined to make it an honest race. So let's pick up the race at the 3k mark where Fisher has the lead in 7:51. Where exactly do you envision Jakob at that point in the race, and what exactly do you think he does from there? Take us through it, in detail.
It's truly something to see people sitting around and asking themselves if the fastest man in history over 1500 and 1600 indoors, 2000, 3000 and 3200 meters has what it takes to deal with a fast finish in a 5000 race.
Jakob isn’t saying he would’ve won, so I don’t see how the Cole interview is analogous at all.
Saying “it’s not cool” for fans to speculate on how a race would’ve played out if different people were in it is so lame.
No, discrediting Hocker is lame. But if you insist, play it out in detail. Instead of looking at very different past contexts which don't apply to how the race was run in Tokyo, imagine inserting 2024 Jakob into Tokyo in the way the race actually transpired.
We know from Fisher's post-race interview that he was determined to make it an honest race. So let's pick up the race at the 3k mark where Fisher has the lead in 7:51. Where exactly do you envision Jakob at that point in the race, and what exactly do you think he does from there? Take us through it, in detail.
I’m not discrediting him at all. I think he ran a great race. He’s the world champ. I didn’t jump to saying “oh this doesn’t count” or “he only won because Jakob wasn’t healthy.” Someone asked who would win in a hypothetical race and everyone gave their opinion. No one would throw a hissy fit if someone says they think Joshua Cheptegei would beat Gressier.
I don’t know how it would play out, I’m not in their heads, but I would imagine if someone made the pace fast in the last mile, Jakob would beat Cole, even if that person were Jakob. The 3k split of this race doesn’t really matter. Obviously it means you can’t perfectly compare it to Budapest or Paris or Eugene, but the race came down to a 400m, with everyone still there regardless of the pace. 12:58 isn’t that fast for these guys when it’s fairly evenly paced until the bell
It's truly something to see people sitting around and asking themselves if the fastest man in history over 1500 and 1600 indoors, 2000, 3000 and 3200 meters has what it takes to deal with a fast finish in a 5000 race.
ask Komen in Zurich 97 v.s Geb (who had far worse PRs from 1500-3200).
and tbh, you're equally hung up on the last 1600, but ignoring a significantly faster finish time, as well as last 400m.
What separates Jakob isn’t the optics of one race; it’s that he’s done it off 7:46/5:02 (Florence), Sub 5 2k in (Paris), 4:56 (Budapest), all faster finishes than Hocker has managed period.
If you don't think somebody drastically improves from 18 years old to 24, then I don't know what to say either. We can agree to disagree. I think Jakob has more pathways to victory.
and tbh, you're equally hung up on the last 1600, but ignoring a significantly faster finish time, as well as last 400m.
What separates Jakob isn’t the optics of one race; it’s that he’s done it off 7:46/5:02 (Florence), Sub 5 2k in (Paris), 4:56 (Budapest), all faster finishes than Hocker has managed period.
If you don't think somebody drastically improves from 18 years old to 24, then I don't know what to say either. We can agree to disagree. I think Jakob has more pathways to victory.
Again, like the" history guy "in previous pages, you need to use some work on comprehension. I never said Jakob hasn't improve since 2019, in fact he has. I just pointed out that the finish was quite a bit weaker than Hocker put on in Tokyo. And it's a stretch to say he improves so much he necessarily matches that even in peak shape.
"We can agree to disagree" that's all we can agree on!
The OP stated, "For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can't crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob." Sounds like discrediting to me.
I feel like we’re at least 100 points beyond that at this point, that isn’t how the conversation has been going for a while. They were trying to be provocative and it clearly worked
It's truly something to see people sitting around and asking themselves if the fastest man in history over 1500 and 1600 indoors, 2000, 3000 and 3200 meters has what it takes to deal with a fast finish in a 5000 race.
ask Komen in Zurich 97 v.s Geb (who had far worse PRs from 1500-3200).
Trying to imply Jakob is Komen and Hocker is Geb doesn't exactly work when Jakob is a much, much superior 5000 runner to Hocker and Geb is a superior 5000 runner to Komen.
The OP stated, "For me, his 5k win has an asterisk. I can't crown him as the best unless he beats Peak Jakob." Sounds like discrediting to me.
I feel like we’re at least 100 points beyond that at this point, that isn’t how the conversation has been going for a while. They were trying to be provocative and it clearly worked
You referred to the OP when you stated, "Someone asked who would win in a hypothetical race and everyone gave their opinion." I'm pointing out that the OP's intent was to discredit Hocker. The OP posed the question to invite other people to assert that peak Jakob would have beaten Hocker. The entire premise of this thread is to discredit Hocker, and that's what certain individuals have been doing.
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ask Komen in Zurich 97 v.s Geb (who had far worse PRs from 1500-3200).
Trying to imply Jakob is Komen and Hocker is Geb doesn't exactly work when Jakob is a much, much superior 5000 runner to Hocker and Geb is a superior 5000 runner to Komen.
At least that proves your prs from 1500m to 3200m don't necessarily make you a faster finisher in a 5k.
As for superior, that's subjective at this point. If you're talking about resume. Yeah, Jakob right now in the 5k has far 2 golds, that would take a while for Hocker to catch up. But ability-wise, I don't think so. When Hocker already had a faster championship time as well as better kick. In terms of PBs, their PBs don't quite reflect their current ability, so let's leave it at that.
Trying to imply Jakob is Komen and Hocker is Geb doesn't exactly work when Jakob is a much, much superior 5000 runner to Hocker and Geb is a superior 5000 runner to Komen.
At least that proves your prs from 1500m to 3200m don't necessarily make you a faster finisher in a 5k.
As for superior, that's subjective at this point. If you're talking about resume. Yeah, Jakob right now in the 5k has far 2 golds, that would take a while for Hocker to catch up. But ability-wise, I don't think so. When Hocker already had a faster championship time as well as better kick. In terms of PBs, their PBs don't quite reflect their current ability, so let's leave it at that.
Being faster from 1500 to 5000 makes you a faster finisher in the 5000.
And no, it's not subjective that the person who has never lost a 5000 race as a senior when healthy is a superior 5000 runner to the person who has won one race of note and has a 10 seconds slower PR. Hocker in the best shape of his life was only 4 seconds faster than a Jakob who hasn't raced since the indoor season and has barely been able to train until recently.
Jakob has 3 global golds and 3 European golds, where did you get 2 golds from? Jakobs current ability when healthy is much superior than his 12:48 PB, because he hasn't ran an all out 5000 race since 2021.
At least that proves your prs from 1500m to 3200m don't necessarily make you a faster finisher in a 5k.
As for superior, that's subjective at this point. If you're talking about resume. Yeah, Jakob right now in the 5k has far 2 golds, that would take a while for Hocker to catch up. But ability-wise, I don't think so. When Hocker already had a faster championship time as well as better kick. In terms of PBs, their PBs don't quite reflect their current ability, so let's leave it at that.
Being faster from 1500 to 5000 makes you a faster finisher in the 5000.
And no, it's not subjective that the person who has never lost a 5000 race as a senior when healthy is a superior 5000 runner to the person who has won one race of note and has a 10 seconds slower PR. Hocker in the best shape of his life was only 4 seconds faster than a Jakob who hasn't raced since the indoor season and has barely been able to train until recently.
Jakob has 3 global golds and 3 European golds, where did you get 2 golds from? Jakobs current ability when healthy is much superior than his 12:48 PB, because he hasn't ran an all out 5000 race since 2021.
Nah, you're conflating basic speed with speed endurance. Jakob may have better speed endurance, but Hocker has better speed.
But that 4 secs happen in the last lap, 52 v.s 56, which was an eternity.
oops, typo, I said two more golds and of course I meant global golds only.
So hasn't Hocker, that's why he closed like a train.
In Hocker's win the heat was already on. They were 10 seconds ahead of pace compared to Jakob's fastest race, and yet Hocker STILL closed the final 400 faster than all but one of Jakob's 5000m wins, and a faster 200m than ALL of Jakob's wins. I think there's a strong case that Hocker would be the winner. And because of this, let's just say it'd be a very tight race and they're about the same level of dominance for finishing speed at their best.
That's because the laps preceding the final lap for Jakob are run at an average of 59 seconds (last 2k in 4:56 in Budapest). Call me crazy but Jakob's finish is more impressive.
That's not a good reason, all 10 laps before the final 2 laps for Hocker were faster than Jakob's early laps. He was a full second per lap faster, going an average of 64 seconds per lap in Hocker's race compared to 65 seconds per lap in Jakob's fastest race. So I don't care if Jakob ran a 62 second lap at 1200 or 1600 to go when Hocker was running an average of 64 the whole time.
So there is no scenario or logic where Hockers win here is "discredited" - irrespective of Jakobs fitness.
He won a global 5000m title in under 13min - that's only been done twice at the Olympics and three times at the World Championships. It's not like this was mickey mouse 13.25 race where it then is anybodies title to win, if you win in a time like that you need to be damn good.
But to answer the question it is interesting to think how this race goes with a "2024 Paris" edition of Jakob in it and let's assume that the opening 3000m is no different (7.51/2). Because this is very different to ever global 5000 Jakob has won - where the 3000m splits for some reason have been well over 8min. 8.05 in Eugene, 8.14 in Budapest and 8.18 in Paris. So a low 7.50 split is a significant difference - one that of course both Jakob and Hocker can handle comfortably as 7.17 and 7.23 3000m runners, but it means the next mile really decides this question.
If the race continued like yesterday and that next 1600m was run in 4.12/4.13 then Jakob stands no chance against Hocker, even at his best. At a maintaining (marginally slower) pace there, that does not dent Hocker's anaerobic power or capacity at all, and he has the best in the field. Yes Jakob has closed a major final in a comparable split (52.45 in Budapest) but that was far slower race. It's not that Jakob is struggling at 12.05 through 4600m, it's just that Hocker is not struggling enough. So in that race script, Hocker will still win.
I think it's therefore quite simple. Off that pace, if Jakob could then run the next 1600 in even 4.05 then things change. Firstly the entire field would be splintered which makes it harder for Hocker, especially if he wants to mess around at the back/middle of the pack like he did yesterday, but it's when it turns into a 12.51/2 race and that's where it gets murky for Hocker because that's probably pretty close to where I think his 5000m PR is in a DL style even paced race (right around the 12.50.0 mark). So he's not running 52.6 off that pace, could he match a 54-55 close that Jakob has the strength to lay down? Not sure. Remember this kind of race script is the exact one that Bekele employed to make sure he didn't get beaten by Lagat - the 1500m guy, in Beijing and it worked to perfection.
So it is interesting. I think there is a scenario where Jakob could have beaten Hocker but the one caveat is this - we've never seen him do it before that way, so we really don't know. And it would be doing it the hard way that's for sure. Real shame he wasn't competition fit, we'll never know.
That's because the laps preceding the final lap for Jakob are run at an average of 59 seconds (last 2k in 4:56 in Budapest). Call me crazy but Jakob's finish is more impressive.
That's not a good reason, all 10 laps before the final 2 laps for Hocker were faster than Jakob's early laps. He was a full second per lap faster, going an average of 64 seconds per lap in Hocker's race compared to 65 seconds per lap in Jakob's fastest race. So I don't care if Jakob ran a 62 second lap at 1200 or 1600 to go when Hocker was running an average of 64 the whole time.
slight correction, that's sub-63 the whole time. ;)
Being faster from 1500 to 5000 makes you a faster finisher in the 5000.
And no, it's not subjective that the person who has never lost a 5000 race as a senior when healthy is a superior 5000 runner to the person who has won one race of note and has a 10 seconds slower PR. Hocker in the best shape of his life was only 4 seconds faster than a Jakob who hasn't raced since the indoor season and has barely been able to train until recently.
Jakob has 3 global golds and 3 European golds, where did you get 2 golds from? Jakobs current ability when healthy is much superior than his 12:48 PB, because he hasn't ran an all out 5000 race since 2021.
Nah, you're conflating basic speed with speed endurance. Jakob may have better speed endurance, but Hocker has better speed.
But that 4 secs happen in the last lap, 52 v.s 56, which was an eternity.
oops, typo, I said two more golds and of course I meant global golds only.
So hasn't Hocker, that's why he closed like a train.
And speed endurance is more important in long distance running than speed, unless every race is a sub 13:30 jogfest.
We saw Hocker run an all out 5000 back in June, where he finished at 13:09 with pacers. Jakob running 56 seconds with no training doesn't bode well for Hocker when Jakob is healthy.
Jakob is the best 5000 runner on the planet because he wins every type of race. He wins sit and kick jogfests, he wins when the pace is ramped up gradually with a mile to go and he wins when the pace is high from gun to tape. Just bizarre to claim that Hocker is a better 5000 runner because he might have a slight advantage at one aspect which is low on the list of relevance, top speed, when Jakob is better at every other aspect in the event.
And speed endurance is more important in long distance running than speed, unless every race is a sub 13:30 jogfest.
We saw Hocker run an all out 5000 back in June, where he finished at 13:09 with pacers. Jakob running 56 seconds with no training doesn't bode well for Hocker when Jakob is healthy.
Jakob is the best 5000 runner on the planet because he wins every type of race. He wins sit and kick jogfests, he wins when the pace is ramped up gradually with a mile to go and he wins when the pace is high from gun to tape. Just bizarre to claim that Hocker is a better 5000 runner because he might have a slight advantage at one aspect which is low on the list of relevance, top speed, when Jakob is better at every other aspect in the event.
As I noted earlier in this thread, Hocker said he had jetlag and other issues in Stockholm which made that race not indicative of his fitness at the time. As you yourself acknowledged, Hocker was in the best shape of his life in Tokyo, so I'm not sure why you're bringing up a race he did three months ago.
As for Peak Jakob winning every type of 5k race, he never beat Tokyo '25 Hocker in those races. Peak Jakob previously beating a bunch of other runners doesn't mean he would have beaten Tokyo '25 Hocker.
So there is no scenario or logic where Hockers win here is "discredited" - irrespective of Jakobs fitness.
He won a global 5000m title in under 13min - that's only been done twice at the Olympics and three times at the World Championships. It's not like this was mickey mouse 13.25 race where it then is anybodies title to win, if you win in a time like that you need to be damn good.
But to answer the question it is interesting to think how this race goes with a "2024 Paris" edition of Jakob in it and let's assume that the opening 3000m is no different (7.51/2). Because this is very different to ever global 5000 Jakob has won - where the 3000m splits for some reason have been well over 8min. 8.05 in Eugene, 8.14 in Budapest and 8.18 in Paris. So a low 7.50 split is a significant difference - one that of course both Jakob and Hocker can handle comfortably as 7.17 and 7.23 3000m runners, but it means the next mile really decides this question.
If the race continued like yesterday and that next 1600m was run in 4.12/4.13 then Jakob stands no chance against Hocker, even at his best. At a maintaining (marginally slower) pace there, that does not dent Hocker's anaerobic power or capacity at all, and he has the best in the field. Yes Jakob has closed a major final in a comparable split (52.45 in Budapest) but that was far slower race. It's not that Jakob is struggling at 12.05 through 4600m, it's just that Hocker is not struggling enough. So in that race script, Hocker will still win.
I think it's therefore quite simple. Off that pace, if Jakob could then run the next 1600 in even 4.05 then things change. Firstly the entire field would be splintered which makes it harder for Hocker, especially if he wants to mess around at the back/middle of the pack like he did yesterday, but it's when it turns into a 12.51/2 race and that's where it gets murky for Hocker because that's probably pretty close to where I think his 5000m PR is in a DL style even paced race (right around the 12.50.0 mark). So he's not running 52.6 off that pace, could he match a 54-55 close that Jakob has the strength to lay down? Not sure. Remember this kind of race script is the exact one that Bekele employed to make sure he didn't get beaten by Lagat - the 1500m guy, in Beijing and it worked to perfection.
So it is interesting. I think there is a scenario where Jakob could have beaten Hocker but the one caveat is this - we've never seen him do it before that way, so we really don't know. And it would be doing it the hard way that's for sure. Real shame he wasn't competition fit, we'll never know.
Excellent post. Well-reasoned, fair, and balanced. Although I think Hocker can run better than 12:50, I agree with the main points of your analysis and your conclusion.
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And speed endurance is more important in long distance running than speed, unless every race is a sub 13:30 jogfest.
We saw Hocker run an all out 5000 back in June, where he finished at 13:09 with pacers. Jakob running 56 seconds with no training doesn't bode well for Hocker when Jakob is healthy.
Jakob is the best 5000 runner on the planet because he wins every type of race. He wins sit and kick jogfests, he wins when the pace is ramped up gradually with a mile to go and he wins when the pace is high from gun to tape. Just bizarre to claim that Hocker is a better 5000 runner because he might have a slight advantage at one aspect which is low on the list of relevance, top speed, when Jakob is better at every other aspect in the event.
As I noted earlier in this thread, Hocker said he had jetlag and other issues in Stockholm which made that race not indicative of his fitness at the time. As you yourself acknowledged, Hocker was in the best shape of his life in Tokyo, so I'm not sure why you're bringing up a race he did three months ago.
As for Peak Jakob winning every type of 5k race, he never beat Tokyo '25 Hocker in those races. Peak Jakob previously beating a bunch of other runners doesn't mean he would have beaten Tokyo '25 Hocker.
Hocker being in the best shape of his life could only finish four seconds ahead of Jakob being in the worst shape of his life. I'm pretty sure Jakob being in peak shape can improve by more than 4 seconds compared to this 5000 final.