glad hopkins is taking advantage of the talent they have, looking better this year.
Eh, screw them. They're scared, weak little babies for dropping out of the UAA. Can't face CMU or NYU, instead they have to go slum it against whatever the hell Ursinus is.
Weirdest centennial conference team is objectively the McDaniel "Green Terror"
At-Large (in order of likely selection) 1 - 12 UW-Platteville 2 - 8 RPI 3 - 9 UChicago 4 - 10 North Central 5 - 6 NYU 6 - 13 UW-Stevens Point 7 - 11 MIT 8 - 15 Amherst 9 - 23 Lynchburg 10 - 15 Carnegie Mellon 11 - 20 Wesleyan 12 - 22 Middlebury 13 - 24 Lebanon Valley 14 - 21 St. Olaf 15 - 25 Colorado College 16 - 19 WashU 17 - 29 Loras 18 - 26 UW-Whitewater 19 - 27 UC Santa Cruz 20 - RV CMS 21 - 28 Colby 22 - RV Case Western Reserve
First 4 out Dickinson Bates Swarthmore Emory
There is a really interesting battle for the last few spots. There is a bunch of teams that ran the Paul Short White race that end being the next-best team in their region to not get selected.
Those being (in order): Dickinson, Swarthmore, Emory, Bates, St. Lawrence, George Fox. The committee will consider these teams in order of finish since they hold the same number of wins (1 against TCNJ). Yet Case Western would get selected over all of them because of their win over Colby at Prenats on a weekend that usually ISN'T counted. It's important to note that Case Western hasn't gone to ANY other relevant meets, choosing the David Mullen invite and the Oberlin interregional over Paul Short/Blugold and other interregionals, respectively.
I've noticed that there are some teams that have performed wildly different at different weekends. CMS nearly won Prenats against North Central yet was 13th at Conn College. Colby lost by 100 points to CMS at Prenats but beat them at Conn College. TCNJ was 24th in the Paul Short White race, yet was 12th at Conn and is now ranked and a provisional favorite for the Metro region. I completely missed this in my first takeaways as others pointed out.
There definitely could be an effect from counting 3 interregional weekends instead of 2. Fringe bubble teams need to be at the their best more often now. There's other examples too.
The Metro region looks to be wide open between TCNJ, Swarthmore and Haverford. The Metro region will not only likely only give 1 winner, but will also be a key to several teams at large hopes. Swarthmore was 14th compared to Haverford's 22nd and TCNJ's 24th at Paul Short White.
A Haverford or TCNJ Metro win opens up a lot of East Coast teams like Bates, Dickinson, WPI, Emory, St. Lawrence, etc. (i.e. the teams that finished 14th-22nd) to have feasible national qualifying hopes (though still not good enough as of today)
Also, want to call out Lebanon Valley and Wesleyan (and kind of Case Western like mentioned above) for not running their A team at the interregional meets (Rowan and Conn). These teams likely skipped out to try to avoid getting any losses to fellow bubble teams. The scheduling formula part of national qualifying is a real thing. I understand it but its weak. Wesleyan isn't going to be able to avoid the competition at NESCAC next weekend, but Lebanon Valley is definitely qualified for their first national meet ever as long as they are 3rd at Mid-Atlantics. They have a very weak conference but getting 3rd at Mid-Atlantics is no guarantee with Dickinson close by.
This post was edited 14 minutes after it was posted.
An excellent ranking and explanation. You seem to have a better understanding of the qualifying process than our coach. Can you do the women’s bids now?
Although they struggled at Paul Short and Conn, I think St. Lawrence has a realistic path to be last team in based on the strength of the Mideast region and the fact that they host regionals up North in Canton. Mideast region has five teams in the top 22 that should all be comfortably into nationals even if they get sixth at regionals, so all it will take is St. Lawrence beating one of them at regionals (which is on their home course, late season when they always run at their best) and they will be into nationals. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
An excellent ranking and explanation. You seem to have a better understanding of the qualifying process than our coach. Can you do the women’s bids now?
Thanks. I've been doing this the past few years, so I have a good handle on how the committee chooses teams. I would do it for the women but it takes time to record all the relevant results and go thru the process. I'm also a washed-up alum with a job now, so the motivation isn't as high. We'll see, but unlikely.
This post was edited 7 minutes after it was posted.
Word on the street is North Fentral is collapsing due to a fentanyl epidemic on the team. Stay away from their tent at nats, you might get a contact high. Much like iowa state, one of them got caught and brought down the rest of the team. Truly the end of an era
Although they struggled at Paul Short and Conn, I think St. Lawrence has a realistic path to be last team in based on the strength of the Mideast region and the fact that they host regionals up North in Canton. Mideast region has five teams in the top 22 that should all be comfortably into nationals even if they get sixth at regionals, so all it will take is St. Lawrence beating one of them at regionals (which is on their home course, late season when they always run at their best) and they will be into nationals. Definitely something to keep an eye on.
There are no "pushes" in D3. You have to make the National Meet on your own team's merit. Beating someone in your region who beat a bunch of people does not count for much.
At-Large (in order of likely selection) 1 - 12 UW-Platteville 2 - 8 RPI 3 - 9 UChicago 4 - 10 North Central 5 - 6 NYU 6 - 13 UW-Stevens Point 7 - 11 MIT 8 - 15 Amherst 9 - 23 Lynchburg 10 - 15 Carnegie Mellon 11 - 20 Wesleyan 12 - 22 Middlebury 13 - 24 Lebanon Valley 14 - 21 St. Olaf 15 - 25 Colorado College 16 - 19 WashU 17 - 29 Loras 18 - 26 UW-Whitewater 19 - 27 UC Santa Cruz 20 - RV CMS 21 - 28 Colby 22 - RV Case Western Reserve
First 4 out Dickinson Bates Swarthmore Emory
There is a really interesting battle for the last few spots. There is a bunch of teams that ran the Paul Short White race that end being the next-best team in their region to not get selected.
Those being (in order): Dickinson, Swarthmore, Emory, Bates, St. Lawrence, George Fox. The committee will consider these teams in order of finish since they hold the same number of wins (1 against TCNJ). Yet Case Western would get selected over all of them because of their win over Colby at Prenats on a weekend that usually ISN'T counted. It's important to note that Case Western hasn't gone to ANY other relevant meets, choosing the David Mullen invite and the Oberlin interregional over Paul Short/Blugold and other interregionals, respectively.
I've noticed that there are some teams that have performed wildly different at different weekends. CMS nearly won Prenats against North Central yet was 13th at Conn College. Colby lost by 100 points to CMS at Prenats but beat them at Conn College. TCNJ was 24th in the Paul Short White race, yet was 12th at Conn and is now ranked and a provisional favorite for the Metro region. I completely missed this in my first takeaways as others pointed out.
There definitely could be an effect from counting 3 interregional weekends instead of 2. Fringe bubble teams need to be at the their best more often now. There's other examples too.
The Metro region looks to be wide open between TCNJ, Swarthmore and Haverford. The Metro region will not only likely only give 1 winner, but will also be a key to several teams at large hopes. Swarthmore was 14th compared to Haverford's 22nd and TCNJ's 24th at Paul Short White.
A Haverford or TCNJ Metro win opens up a lot of East Coast teams like Bates, Dickinson, WPI, Emory, St. Lawrence, etc. (i.e. the teams that finished 14th-22nd) to have feasible national qualifying hopes (though still not good enough as of today)
Also, want to call out Lebanon Valley and Wesleyan (and kind of Case Western like mentioned above) for not running their A team at the interregional meets (Rowan and Conn). These teams likely skipped out to try to avoid getting any losses to fellow bubble teams. The scheduling formula part of national qualifying is a real thing. I understand it but it’s weak. Wesleyan isn't going to be able to avoid the competition at NESCAC next weekend, but Lebanon Valley is definitely qualified for their first national meet ever as long as they are 3rd at Mid-Atlantics. They have a very weak conference but getting 3rd at Mid-Atlantics is no guarantee with Dickinson close by.
It is your prerogative to call out LVC for ducking competition, but also kind of weak to do so without at least acknowledging some of the really big wins they got at Paul Short. Why not just train and get ready for the second half of the season, especially as you pointed out that they extra week of countable competition exists and they also did compete at Lock Haven during that timeframe.
You also mentioned that they have a weak conference which simply isn’t true, Messiah is arguably better than Dickinson as they averaged 25:25 at Rowan without one of their better runners in the mix. Dickinson was only 25:35 at Conn. While LVC didn’t compete at an interregional meet, they did compete that weekend at Gettysburg.
I'm more pointing out a flaw in the system where a team can schedule two meets (Gettysburg and Rowan) and choose to bring their A team to the useless meet mid-season because they likely have done enough for qualification after 1 meet, and don't want to risk themselves losing to other bubble teams.
Not sure what the fix is for this system or if it even needs to be fixed. But that's the thing with our sport where only a handful of meets actually matter, and sometimes you're incentivized to not even compete or even drop out of a meet you scheduled. I don't really blame coaches for doing it. This is an issue in track too.
I assume you're affiliated with LVC, so congrats on the massive performance at Paul Short, and I am hoping you guys qualify b/c its cool to see schools qualify for the first time ever.
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
The conferences to note that will have the biggest effects on national qualifying:
WIAC 1 UW-La Crosse, 12 UW-Platteville, 13 UW-Stevens Point, 26 UW-Whitewater, UW-Eau Claire, UW-Oshkosh UWL will run away with this. Platteville and Stevens Point are probably a tier above and secured in the nationals meet barring an epic collapse as well. Interesting bubble ramifications for the rest of the teams though. Oshkosh beat Whitewater and Eau Claire at Blugold, but then was last of the 3 at Augustana. Important meet for all 3 of these teams to get wins to protect them if they fumble at regionals. Eau Claire should be especially desperate for a win against Whitewater as they lack any good wins right now.
NESCAC 4 Tufts, 7 Williams, 15 Amherst, 20 Wesleyan, 22 Middlebury, 28 Colby, Bates 6 ranked teams in this one. Huge chance for Bates to pick up some wins. We'll see if Tufts is actually good (real ones remember 2022 nationals) and can unseat Williams 5-year winning streak.
UAA 6 NYU, 9 UChicago, 16 Carnegie Mellon, 19 WashU, Case Western, Emory I'm fascinated to see NYU-UChicago collide. Top 3 teams here are locked for nationals and I'd be really surprised seeing WashU miss out but I guess its possible. Case and Emory battle to hold the tiebreaker between themselves if it comes down to that in national qualifying. If they go above and beyond, a win over a ranked team for either would likely secure them in the field since both of their regions are fairly weak.
Centennial 3 Johns Hopkins, Swarthmore, Dickinson, Haverford JHU will run away with this, but I'm more interested in the 2-3-4 battle as all 3 of those teams are firm bubble teams just outside the field. Swarthmore and Haverford will battle again at Metros for the auto bid (with TCNJ as a slight favorite), and Dickinson will be hoping to secure 4th at Mid-Atlantics. This is a golden opportunity for all 3 teams to get a win against a possible region winner, and also win a tiebreaker against a fellow bubble team. Whoever is last here will have very difficult odds unless they can find the auto bid.
MIAA This is a just an honorable mention because it looks like Hope will finally break Calvin's 37-year conference winning streak. Lost last year by 1 point; this year they are heavy favorites. Wish it was more climatic for them.
The rules clearly state that you cannot make nationals over a team that beat you at regionals. So if a good team that has the wins to make nationals loses to a bubble team, then both teams will make it.
Let a real ball knower tell you who can win nationals.
Tier 1 the title favorites
1. Grant Matthai: The La Crosse training plan has turned the better twin into an absolute force. Although he lost at the interregional, it's hard to see him not taking the win. After his disappointing showing that cost his team a tittle a few years ago. Grant has shown that he should be the favorite. He just ran 23:24 on a course that seemed to be 100m long. He is obviously going to have to push early in the race if he wants to win
2. Emmanual Leblond: He has the most impressive race all year running 23:23 and place 6th at Paul short. I'm going to give Grant the slight edge as he has outperformed Leblond on most occasions.
3. Mo Bati: The wildcard. He rips 150 mile weeks and every race this year he has jogged and then gunned it the last 1000m. He also has the benefit of not having to worry about the team battle. If he decides to rip from the gun Leblond and grant will have a tough decision to make. But Mo has been racing nobodies all year so it is hard to judge what he will be in the race.
Tier 2 They have a shot
4. Issac VanWestrienen: He has the best win over a d3 runner this year beating Grant at the interregional in a monster kick. On his interview with D3 glory days he seems confident and hungry. However, he hasn't done much on the big stage and he was on a down week while Grant was at peak millage. He has a shot but I just haven't seen enough from him
5.Nathan Tassey: Had an underwhelming Paul short and was injured early in the season. But after the 10k dq he should be the hungriest man in the field. It's hard to judge where is fitness is at but he should have a fire come time for the biggest stage.
6.Aidan Matthai: With the power of his twin and their YouTube channel he can make something happen. He showed up big at nationals last year and he might want the spotlight his brother has been having. In order to win he will likely have to run by his twin and they can hold hands across the finish line and Aidan can dip him at the line.
Tier 3 It's possible
7.Will Shufilt: I'm just not sold but I figured I should mention him
8.Isaiah Hammerand: He's been a bit down on himself this year but his last name is to cool to not have him in the top 8.
9. Ryan Hagen: The last guy with any semblance of a real shot in my opinion. He's young and hungry that's about the only logic I got for a win
10. BJ Sorg: Figured I'd mention 10 guys. He has a goofy first name but he won pre nats so he knows the course.
Team battle
La crosse will win unless the Matthai twins distract them by having cameras everywhere. Wartburg or John Hopkins could give them a run but lets be real it's not worth wasting more time on.
Let a real ball knower tell you who can win nationals.
Tier 1 the title favorites
1. Grant Matthai: The La Crosse training plan has turned the better twin into an absolute force. Although he lost at the interregional, it's hard to see him not taking the win. After his disappointing showing that cost his team a tittle a few years ago. Grant has shown that he should be the favorite. He just ran 23:24 on a course that seemed to be 100m long. He is obviously going to have to push early in the race if he wants to win
2. Emmanual Leblond: He has the most impressive race all year running 23:23 and place 6th at Paul short. I'm going to give Grant the slight edge as he has outperformed Leblond on most occasions.
3. Mo Bati: The wildcard. He rips 150 mile weeks and every race this year he has jogged and then gunned it the last 1000m. He also has the benefit of not having to worry about the team battle. If he decides to rip from the gun Leblond and grant will have a tough decision to make. But Mo has been racing nobodies all year so it is hard to judge what he will be in the race.
Tier 2 They have a shot
4. Issac VanWestrienen: He has the best win over a d3 runner this year beating Grant at the interregional in a monster kick. On his interview with D3 glory days he seems confident and hungry. However, he hasn't done much on the big stage and he was on a down week while Grant was at peak millage. He has a shot but I just haven't seen enough from him
5.Nathan Tassey: Had an underwhelming Paul short and was injured early in the season. But after the 10k dq he should be the hungriest man in the field. It's hard to judge where is fitness is at but he should have a fire come time for the biggest stage.
6.Aidan Matthai: With the power of his twin and their YouTube channel he can make something happen. He showed up big at nationals last year and he might want the spotlight his brother has been having. In order to win he will likely have to run by his twin and they can hold hands across the finish line and Aidan can dip him at the line.
Tier 3 It's possible
7.Will Shufilt: I'm just not sold but I figured I should mention him
8.Isaiah Hammerand: He's been a bit down on himself this year but his last name is to cool to not have him in the top 8.
9. Ryan Hagen: The last guy with any semblance of a real shot in my opinion. He's young and hungry that's about the only logic I got for a win
10. BJ Sorg: Figured I'd mention 10 guys. He has a goofy first name but he won pre nats so he knows the course.
Team battle
La crosse will win unless the Matthai twins distract them by having cameras everywhere. Wartburg or John Hopkins could give them a run but lets be real it's not worth wasting more time on.
Not sure I’d call many of the North Region runners Mo faced at BluGold nobodies. Cameron Cullen and the Carthage kid or even the Hope boys are really solid runners. Even Kevin Turlington was 3rd at Conn and beat a lot of good runners. None are exactly world beaters, but some of those guys could be All-American
Wait till Mo Bati gets a training plan that isn't just running 20 mile doubles every day with a 20 mile long run on the weekend. He'll be the first D3 athlete under 22:00
Wait till Mo Bati gets a training plan that isn't just running 20 mile doubles every day with a 20 mile long run on the weekend. He'll be the first D3 athlete under 22:00
I think it’s a little more complicated than that. He was doing 10 miles in ~70 min twice a day because that was the time he had between work/classes. He did do weekly workouts and some other stuff but would cool down to 10. He’s definitely tapering now too 120 2 weeks ago, 100 last week.
*Interesting article on Mo. Not the typical college experience.
Word on the street is that Mo will run a marathon in December after nationals. Will he not focus on indoor? Also does anyone know what happened last outdoor? My thinking is that he was mostly focusing on the Gary Bjorkland Half rather than NCAAs
Word on the street is that Mo will run a marathon in December after nationals. Will he not focus on indoor? Also does anyone know what happened last outdoor? My thinking is that he was mostly focusing on the Gary Bjorkland Half rather than NCAAs
He is in the elite field for CIM in December per other (MIAC) threads.
I also know that he has a lot more to deal with then the typical D3 athlete so I'm not sure if it was financial, academic or family issues that kept him from racing outdoor season, and if I did know that wouldn't be my information to share.
I wouldn't expect a big indoor season regardless. He would probably never say it, but his 2025 indoor Nationals performance last year was definitely impacted by Ramadan and in 2026, nationals are like 3 weeks into Ramadan and again he'd be going into an afternoon race on a whole morning of fasting.
I'd have to call and ask him about outdoor, but I'm also not sure he enjoys running in circles as much as cross country or the roads. I suspect it depends on how he does at CIM. If he runs anything close to 2:10, he might skip outdoor in favor of a spring marathon. (ex. if BAA would put him up and even give him ~$1k to run, that is probably a week and a half or more of work, plus the chance at prize money. Tough to turn that down in favor of a Wednesday meet with no competition)
The rules clearly state that you cannot make nationals over a team that beat you at regionals. So if a good team that has the wins to make nationals loses to a bubble team, then both teams will make it.
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