rekrunner wrote:
Right, 1986, not 1985.
So, looking at your track data, for the men, using your 5-year snapshots, in the 29+ years between 1995 and 2024, we have 9 seconds improvement, or 0.3 seconds per year. This suggests against any significant advances in doping post-1995, let alone during the supershoe era. While for the women, on the track, we have 36 seconds improvement in that same time period, 4x the men, at 1.2 seconds per year.
That is a very disingenuous summary, and thus conclusion, cherry-picking 1995 for no reason. It also completely ignores the plateaus from between the introduction of the ABP until the superspikes, for men and women alike (no world record over 5000 m for 12 - 16 years!).
In fact, the jumps per year - as already spelled out above - were bigger during the EPO era of the 90s than during the supershoe era to date.
Therefore, the most obvious conclusions are:
1) EPO gave a big boost.
2) The ABP resulted in a decrease of the amount of doping (specifically, IU/kg per doper, not necessarily (but possibly) the number of dopers).
3) The superspikes gave another boost, somewhat smaller than the EPO boost.
Or it's all a coincidence because of the changes in talent... but all of the above is consistent with the literature on EPO, the ABP, and the superspikes.
What we don't really know yet is how the doping/testing changed from 2020 - 2024 - that could have gone either way I suppose. For example, we only learned about the extent of (blood) doping from 2011 - 2013 during 2017 - 2020. And the overview of the suspicious blood values of the 00s (slowly decreasing from year to year) surfaced in 2015. Clearly testing in Kenya for example has gone up in 2017/18, but is currently problematic.
On that note, data from 2014/15 are overdue by comparison (maybe no one analyzed the prevalence of doping for some years?).
