I like your posts and generally agree. I, again, have to agree here. The only thing is that I’m a biased Australian. A few other Qs too. The drug testing in Oz is horribly strict, to a very high standard and frequent - you can’t get away with the shenanigans that are routine in so many other countries. Also, import/export of anything at all - even fruit and vegetables - os extremely strict and heavily regulated. Let alone drugs or ‘packets’ of things. Customs open everything and anything that isn’t declared properly or just to spot check. The average pharmacy is terrible too - one needs a doctor’s prescription for anything of use (unlike in many countries where one can get EPO in the average phamacy..laughably impossible in OZ) + even a doctor will be heavily eyeballed if the doctor is prescribing off-label frequently. It’s insanely regulated and ‘big brother’ like in Australia. If she’s on PEDs, how on earth would she get them in Oz? Someone in Ferntree Gully cooking up a storm? It’s not impossible, just close to it in Australia. It’s not the place to go and live in if that’s what she’s doing.
And I agree with you on this too. Moreso that the incentive (to cheat) when you live in a place like Australia is just really low because hey, if you get caught and your face plastered all over 7NEWS, you might as well pack your bags for New Zealand because it's going to be a greasy existence for the rest of your lifetime.
Once again, not an accusation, more a justification that any questions are completely valid and should be there given the spirit of consistency and anti-bias.
I’m with you. Just trying to figure out how it could be done in an extremely isolated and insanely regulated country like Oz. Even buying basic chemicals would raise flags and a probable investigation, as the ‘Big Brother’ government oversees absolutely everything. Also, I agree - Her face would be plastered everywhere and it’d be a huge humiliation. Not worth it. Very unlike other countries again. Again, not impossible, just magnitudes (many, many times..) more difficult than simply living in almost any country. Yet she chose to go back and live in Oz.
This is a shocking result for a runner so well known to us on the site over the years. She was an NOP runner for years and had definitely plateaued. It was the right decision for her to go back to Australia. She is coached by her father and she says in the interview that she's been hitting outstanding times in workouts. She ran 8:24 at the World Indoor Championships this year behind St. Pierre, Tsegay, and Hailu. Hull was right behind Tsegay in second until 7:40 of that race. So, she was already well beyond her previous shape indoors. Sometimes you get a major advantage the first year after a coaching switch because of the different stimuli. Doping would be the obvious answer to her improvement in normal cases but I would say that she doesn't show the signs of the cheater in communicating through facial expressions that she knows she is cheating. The NOP experience and the improvement raise doubts, of course. She looked simply blown away by what she did, so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
This will never happen as coevett and his jealous ilk is on a one-man mission to eliminate all Africans from distance competitions and have them all replaced with third, fourth and fifth tier rated 'athletes' from white, western countries who all share the same values i.e. being considerably slower than the Africans and engaging in sophisticated doping and coverups with assistance from their respective national 'anti-doping' agencies.
Nothing suspicious about a 5 second improvement from a white runner from australia who has never factored in any of her previous international races.
How often do deeply experienced athletes take 7 seconds off their 1500 PR in one year at the age of 27?
Nike athlete. Who is her coach, and where is she based?
When did she start making steady improvement? The day she dumped Pete J and Union Athletic
You're delusional. She started running with Pete in 2019 and left late in 2023. She broke several national and oceanic records during that time. She made this insane leap after leaving Union Athletic, yes. Interpret that how you may, but don't kid yourself about her prior progress.
It was the right decision for her to go back to Australia. She is coached by her father and she says in the interview that she's been hitting outstanding times in workouts. She ran 8:24 at the World Indoor Championships this year behind St. Pierre, Tsegay, and Hailu. Hull was right behind Tsegay in second until 7:40 of that race. So, she was already well beyond her previous shape indoors. Sometimes you get a major advantage the first year after a coaching switch because of the different stimuli.
That 8:24 was a huge tell. Daniels says it’s equivalent to a 3:53. She said in her interview she thought she was in 3:53 shape. (Is the track 1/2sec per lap short?)
Was she doing the type of base-building in past years like this?:
Poor Linden Hall. She broke the Australian women’s 1500 record last year at Pre, running 3:56.92 and beating Hull. She ran half a second faster today, but this time got dusted by Hull.
Have been watching Hull since her Oregon days (she was in Emma Abrahamson’s videos + I’m Aussie and it made me notice her when I heard the accent). I’ll say that Linden Hall has never been anywhere near as talented as Hull (sorry, but true), and if she can run 3.56, then Hull can run miles better. Maybe I’m biased, but if Hull has done her first real altitude stint, then possibly a combo of perfect race, consistent training without drama and injury, a drop of 5 lbs or more + being a hyper altitude responder.
The mid pack elites are now all running circa 3.55. Standard has shifted down hugely for whatever reason.
but she has done altitude before. And got to see a Nike endocrinologist. So the altitude and leanness are nothing new.
Hull latched onto Kipyegon immediately and knew what the wavelength pace was before the gun went off, so she either knew she had good training and something special today or she was just going to see how long she could run at WR pace.
She looked VERY strong the entire race. Was fun to watch in any event.
How often do deeply experienced athletes take 7 seconds off their 1500 PR in one year at the age of 27?
Nike athlete. Who is her coach, and where is she based?
So in the interests of being consistent - this is really "eye opening". Not a direct accusation but the same questions are at play with certain others that have been discussed ad nauseum on the messageboard.
For me my simple question is, how is it possible she has been soooo far off her potential over the last 3-4 seasons, especially as she been exposed to really high level racing with wavelight and of course, modern product? It's that simple?
Okay so she's improved her 3000m - yeah, by almost the same amount as she just did her 1500m time - but this just doesn't add up right now. Put it this way, I don't really see much difference in Mohamed Katir going from 3.36 to 3.28 in a season and it's actually incredibly similar when you then look at the corresponding level that has been attained relative to the WR.
It's even so incredibly similar down to Katir beginning 2021 with a 3.36.59 PR, taking a 3 second bite out of it to 3.33.62 and then the monumental jump to 3.28.76. Hull began this season at 3.57.29, takes a slightly smaller bite out of it at 3.55.97 and then the monumental jump to 3.50.83?
People will point to Hiltz going from 3.59 to 3.55 as some kind of comparison (and others) but really it's not. When you are approaching the limits of your sexes all-time potential (currently sits at 3.49.04) every second gets infinitely tougher.
I just dunno man, not sure what to believe anymore. But all I'll say is that if we were so suspicious over a dark skinned Spanish male of Moroccan descent who did one thing, we have to be equally suspicious over a white blonde Australian female who has basically done the exact same thing, just on the womans side.
Katir improved 3.6% in the 1,500m from 2020 - 2021, Hull improved 2.7% from 2023 - 2024. Katir improved 3.5% in the 3,000m from 2020 - 2021; Hull improved 1.45% from 2023 - 2024.
Katir's larger % improvement across both the 1,500m and 3,000m in a single year suggests PEDs.
Hull's improvements are notably smaller than Katir's which could indicate that her performances were already closer to her peak potential, especially at 3,000m. As someone else wrote above, the 1,500m might be a biproduct of the 3,000m improvement.
It’s funny too, because the same thing happened to Nuguse who ran 3:43 last year as well. Sexist old men on this site amirite…
Nuguse was 24 and he’d already run 3:29.0 that season. It was a less than 2s improvement. Jess has been at a 3:56-3:57 level in her mid-20s. She hit a whole new level at age 27. It resembles Shelby running 3:54.99 in old-tech spikes. That isn’t to say she’s doping but I challenge anyone to find 7s improvements to a near-WR level at age 27. I hope she’s not doping and give her the benefit of the doubt.
Katir improved 3.6% in the 1,500m from 2020 - 2021, Hull improved 2.7% from 2023 - 2024. Katir improved 3.5% in the 3,000m from 2020 - 2021; Hull improved 1.45% from 2023 - 2024.
Katir's larger % improvement across both the 1,500m and 3,000m in a single year suggests PEDs.
Hull's improvements are notably smaller than Katir's which could indicate that her performances were already closer to her peak potential, especially at 3,000m. As someone else wrote above, the 1,500m might be a biproduct of the 3,000m improvement.
Whereas Katir went from running 3:36 in random meetings in Spain, Jess was running in loaded DL races tuned to run 3:53-3:56 if you were fit enough. Also age 22 -> 23 vs age 26 -> 27. The situations are different and a positive wouldn’t prove a negative anyway.
The women's field all ran very fast. It's likely the shoes moreso than this one particular athlete is doping.
It’s never the shoes. Except when someone is doping. Then it’s the shoes.
The shoes help the same as in the men’s 5,000 maybe .5-.6s/lap. That’s about 2s for the women here. You can see in 2019 a pronounced jump as Hassan ran 3:51.95 and Faith PBed on limited prep, Muir almost PBed despite very limited prep. Running a 3:50 remains special as you can see the gap to the rest.