Bottom line...you need to make them hurt. We saw it last night a couple of times where people went off the front early, and then held on. String all these folks out early on and take them deep. Play it safe and you may as well give it to Cranny and Elle, and race for 5th as others have stronger kicks.
This is an interesting game theory thought experiment.
The questions are how long will St. Pierre and Cranny let Valby front run and what pace will she choose. Cranny may start a surge with a mile to go and St. Pierre will most likely surge past her at around 600m.
If Valby were to take it out and sustain a 14:45 pace, there maybe three or four left for the third spot after two and a half miles. Valby has a 25-33% chance.
If Valby front leads at 4:55-5:05 pace, you may have 8-10 women, or even more, realistically fighting for third with a mile to go. Tuohy has run a 4:23 mile and Morgan 4:24. Valby's odds could decrease to 10-15% for third.
If it's 14:45 pace, the only person that can make a move from over a lap out is ESP. Also cranny has much better speed than valby, why would she go from that far out instead of trying to kick the last lap.
The reason I said Cranny might just start running like a bat out of hell is because of her 5K/10K double win and she obviously wants to win in 2024, and that will require beating St. Pierre, not Valby. I don't think Cranny has conceded the race to St. Pierre, or is that concerned about Valby. (If Valby surprises us and wins, that would be awesome and might get Megan Keith's attention. These two may be battling frequently over the next decade. Add Touhy and Houlihan, and this could get interesting.)
St. Pierre took out an Ethiopian world record holder in the last lap. I don't think Cranny wants to try to win in the last 400m--if she has a choice. Maybe not 1600m, but 1200 or 800m could be the best time to surge. Taylor Roe surged to win a 3000m race, and when interviewed she said she didn't really think about it, rather it was more spontaneous when she went into flight.
Elise Cranny followed up her 10k win earlier in the week by repeating as 5K champ at US Nationals and meeting the time qualifying standard to make Team USA a...
If it's 14:45 pace, the only person that can make a move from over a lap out is ESP. Also cranny has much better speed than valby, why would she go from that far out instead of trying to kick the last lap.
The reason I said Cranny might just start running like a bat out of hell is because of her 5K/10K double win and she obviously wants to win in 2024, and that will require beating St. Pierre, not Valby. I don't think Cranny has conceded the race to St. Pierre, or is that concerned about Valby. (If Valby surprises us and wins, that would be awesome and might get Megan Keith's attention. These two may be battling frequently over the next decade. Add Touhy and Houlihan, and this could get interesting.)
St. Pierre took out an Ethiopian world record holder in the last lap. I don't think Cranny wants to try to win in the last 400m--if she has a choice. Maybe not 1600m, but 1200 or 800m could be the best time to surge. Taylor Roe surged to win a 3000m race, and when interviewed she said she didn't really think about it, rather it was more spontaneous when she went into flight.
If Cranny can beat Monson, why not St. Pierre? Also, in the 10K she surged and no one could hang with her. Sometimes these tactics work, and sometimes they don't.
2k 'warmup' and then just blast 3k. She isn't going to drop ESP or Cranny, but can Schweizer hold up? We'll see. She doesn't have to out run the bear, just Schweizer.
This right here. One BIG reason to go to the front and hammer it is it gets rid of as many people as possible; the fewer people she has to deal with near the end the better. And if one of the bigger guns isn't on a great night? That's all it would take. Of course that goes both ways; Parker really needs a career night tonight to make it in the 5. I agree with those who think the 10 is her better shot but it will ber exciting to watch nonetheless!
I’m confused by this thread. Which of ESP/Cranny/Schweizer do you think she is capable of beating? I’m assuming Schweizer because she definitely can’t beat the other two. I mean she won’t beat Karissa either, even coming back from injury.
Her strategy is to gesture and make dumb faces to her coach and friends in the stands every lap.
The only face Valby was making tonight was pain face. That said, I thought she ran the best race she could run right now. She tried to shift gears with 400 to go, but she was at her limit.
I’m confused by this thread. Which of ESP/Cranny/Schweizer do you think she is capable of beating? I’m assuming Schweizer because she definitely can’t beat the other two. I mean she won’t beat Karissa either, even coming back from injury.
Told you. Was plain as day.
You are right, but this is LRC, "Where dreams becomeare reality."
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.