Official Parker Valby Bryan Clay 2024 10K Prediction Contest

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I think so as well. With the same Ten field, Valby; could have EASILY gone sub 30:20 tonight!!! I also think she is do to improve significantly her 5000m pb and by next year definitely in line to threaten sub 30 minutes.

Valby and Nico's current personal best in the 10000m will DEFINITELY be much lower by season end. They stay focused and healthy this year and I think both could be Americans top 10000m runner at the Olympics.

I was surprised the second pacer made it halfway, after the first one dropped out before 5 minutes. There's no way a 30:40 can be intentionally paced toward 15:30 followed by 15:10. The second pacer did a very good job but the flaw from the outset was too slow of an early pace combined with forcing that second pacer to do too much on her own. I don't understand how a cross country trip isn't accompanied by greater emphasis and certainty re the pacing.

Valby sensed the deficit and pushed hard on her own. There was still an outside chance at 8000 but gone at 9000.

Ryan and Keith splits were 12:20 at 4000m.

Fantastic run from Valby, another well deserved NCAA record.

(1) Parker gave a huge speech effort the week before the Ten at Natty’s, breaking records there. So putting in a 10000m debut the following week was too much, especially if trying to get the Oly Standard.

(2) The 10000m probably wasn’t even on their radar, at the time. Maybe after seeing the results from the Ten is when they seriously started contemplating taking a run at it.

Edit: huge *supreme effort. Contrast what she did at Indoor Natty’s versus what Nico did. Also, unlike the female collegiates, the men have had plenty of experience already racing the 10k distance in cross-country.

It was their first shot. Yeah, unlike Ryan and Keith, Valby had to solo while passing a lot of athletes, so probably going out even faster than 12:20 would have made it, but it also would have stacked more risk.

All things considered, it was an incredible result, particularly for a collegiate debut at the distance.

I don’t want to throw any shade on these athletes incredible efforts, but arguably, Nico Young’s 2023-2024 cross-country and track season pales in comparison to what Valby has done on the female side, which is saying a lot.

Without question, the best NCAA female we have seen in a long time and easily the best 3000-5000 range runner since Vicki Huber. The only way she doesn't win both the 5K and 10K at NCAAs is if she doesn't attempt both. So far ahead of every other collegiate right now.

Cross country

* 2023 NCAA Champion
* 2022 NCAA Runner-up
* Fastest 6K time ever recorded at NCAAs, winning by over 10 seconds

Indoor Track (only competed one season)

Outdoor Track

* 2023 NCAA 5000 Champion
* 2022 NCAA 5000 Runner-up
* NCAA Record 10000, breaks record by 28 seconds, only collegiate to ever break 31:00

* easily the best 3000-10000 range runner

Not me. Sorry, although rent free and all. Anyway this is my official favorite. "You see, she has perfected the art of crosstraining, which clearly explains her sudden ability to run record times with seeming ease. Don't be such a cynical hater." Loll. I always do love the explanations. The Kenyans are missing a great opportunity. For now on when people get suspicious they they should just forget things like "culture of running" or "born at altitude" and just say they cross-train on an arc trainer. Because the people on here will be, " yep, that makes perfect sense." But I will leave guys to your usual games. Maybe I'm wrong. Or maybe not. Not my problem.

video is on YT

Well, you’re a liar, because you said you didn’t care on another thread, but you obviously care.

Thanks for that, my first view of it. To me, watching the first 4-5mins, it looks like her natural form is being throttled behind the pacer. She looks a little stiff, and would want to open up more. Thoughts?

It was, but by around 7k I think you will see a change.

I mean yeah, she would feel better opening up her stride. But in these longer races, she will have to accept throttling down for a spell, so she maybe needs to relax more in the early stages (she looks a little antsy), but of course, without going to sleep.

ITS VALBYMANIA!!!!

Chelimo and Farah could open up their stride in a pack while relaxed, whereas, Rupp looked more stiff and bunched in the pack when throttled.