#4 Buchanan CA Luke Sanders - 4:11 (11) Jansen Geyer - 9:29 (10) Michael Pritsky - 4:24 (10) Andrew Ray - 4:25 (9) Dylan Rea - 4:27 (9) Deaglan Givan - 9:48 (11) Amani Rodriguez - 10:05 (10)
Buchanan also has: Max Jauregui (jr)
I revised the rankings for the top 7 teams. I also added a write-up for each teams I feel are contenders for an nxn bid.
#1 Jesuit CA Issac Abbott - 9:11 (10) drake hoferer - 9:19 / 4:13 (10) matthew ogilvie - 9:28 / 4:17(9) lucas alberts - 9:56 / 4:20 (9) Navin Kadel - 4:26 (11) Rafael Jopson - 9:55 / 4:36 (9) Kyle Jakary - 4:29 (10) Chase Cressman - 4:36 (11)
PROS: One of the best coaches in California, very young talent, motivated team, low sticks, and depth! Chase Cressman was one of the fastest returning XC runners for last season so he will likely be in the mix. 8 deep.
CONS: No established low sticks from past XC season. Impressive track times but XC times from 2023 are not as good.
#2 Great Oak CA Westin Brown - 4:10 / 9:15 (11) Jack Paradise - 4:18 (11) Jacob Brown - 4:21 (11) Christian Gump - 9:42 (11) Marco Franco - 9:50/4:27 (10) Carson Lynch - 9:57 (11) Ruben Sanchez - 10:01 (10)
PROS: Established xc low stick Westin Brown. Very successful team during the 2023 XC season. 7 runners deep. Great history of success. May be back for vengeance after their 17th place finish at nationals in 2023. Possible coaching help from Doug Soles.
CONS: Not much improvement on the track when compared to their 2023 XC performances. Risk of Westin Brown getting injured. Outside of sophomores Marco Franco and Ruben Sanchez, there isn't any young talent on this team. All of the talent on this team are juniors.
#3 Buchanan CA Luke Sanders - 4:11 (11) Jansen Geyer - 9:29 (10) Max Jauregui - 4:23 (11) Michael Pritsky - 4:24 (10) Andrew Ray - 4:25 (9) Dylan Rea - 4:27 (9) Deaglan Givan - 9:48 (11) Amani Rodriguez - 10:05 (10)
PROS: 9 Deep with many talented freshman and sophomores in the mix. A solid coaching program with some history of success.
CONS: The recent good track times may not translate well at Woodward Park. There are many freshman and sophmores running low 4:2x. Outside of Luke Sanders, nobody else has run in the 4:1x or 9:1x range.
#4 ML King CA Maximo Zavaleta - 8:54 (10) Brayden Lunetta - 9:32 / 4:18 (11) Logan Carlson - 9:38 / 4:20 (10) Bradley Quezada - 9:41 / 4:24 (10) Alex Wesołowski - 9:58 / 4:25 (11) Frank Stewart - 4:34 (10) John Sosa - 10:05 / 4:38 (9)
PROS: Established low stick Maximo Zavaleta. 3 sophomores in the top 5.
PROS: Top 3 runners look like they could all be low sticks. Lots of young talent, and a solid coaching program. A private school that usually has a new talented runner transfer into their program every year.
CONS: Many people on this program appear to be obsessed with "speed." Lots of 800 meter runners. No 3200 meters? I am not sure how these 1600 meter times will translate to Woodward Park.
PROS: Solid top 5. Anthony Barrera was one of their top XC runners this past season.
CONS: Depth past 5th runner is questionable. Hopefully the two freshman will be able to run faster. No sign of a low stick from this team.
#7 Mira Costa CA Isaac Faynsod - 9:15 (11) Ian Hansen - 9:19 / 4:16 (11) Carson Ehman - 9:31 / 4:23 (10) Krish Desai - 9:41 / 4:21 / (10) Killian Cistone - 10:03 / 4:32 (9) JT Kaplan - 4:32 (10) Max Mironowicz - 10:07 / 4:36 (10) Luuk Van Meurs - 10:10 (10) Ryan Burger - 4:36 (10)
PROS: Top 4 are very good. This program has a very good sophomore class. Hopefully, 1-2 more runners will be able to step up soon. Not impossible with the young talent this program has.
CONS: No established 5th runner. No established depth runners.
Good List. As stated, if this is "best track season, with an emphasis on 3200m as the predictor for XC times", then it is about as good as you can come up. People will quibble, but many of the teams are very close, so it is a bit arbitrary.
Now, for a true XC ranking, I think the best predictor for next year's XC success, is last year's XC success. Taking that in account (using Tully's speed ratings) Great Oak is still #1, since their average returning speed rating is much higher than anyone else.
Westin Brown 11 185 9:15 Jacob Brown 11 183 4:21 Jack Paradise 11 182 4:18 Marco Franco 10 171 9:50 Christian Gump 11 170 9:42 Carson Lynch 11 160 9:57 Ruben Sanchez 10 10:01
I don't see enough data to support JSerra's 4th and 5th runner doing well enough to be #5. I don't think either will break 16:00 at Woodward Park, and that runs up the score in the big merge. I would put both Beckman and Mira Costa above them.
For context, here is the time of the 5th man at last years CIF champs.
San Clemente 15:30 Dana Hills 15:33 Palisades 15:44 Great Oak 15:51 Trabuco Hills 15:51 Beckman 15:59 Newbury Park 16:00 Santa Barbara 16:04 Crescenta Valley 16:04 Oakdale 16:05 Mira Costa 16:05 St Francis 16:06 Jesuit 16:15 Ventura 16:21
You can see that you need your 5th man to be about 16:06 to be a top 5 team, and you shouldn't being relying on a "great day" for that to happen, that should be an "good to average day". And 16:06 is speed rating of about 167, which is about a 9:39 3200m. So you need 5 runners around 9:39 or better. And this checks out this track season for the teams that have been competing in the 3200m enough.
Ventura 5th man 9:36, 6th man 9:41
Beckman 5th man 9:37, 6th man 9:41
Mira Costa's 8th man is 9:41.
This leads me to say I hate the term "finding a 5th somewhere" for a top California team. It doesn't take in to account how good that 5th runner needs to be. There should already be pretty good evidence of that runner on the team, and don't be hoping for a walk-on to be that good.
Buchanan and JSerra look to be the locks for top 2 teams and have the most depth.
Ventura (with Sadie Engelhardt) and Santiago Corona (with Blade and Combe) look to be fighting for the 3rd spot. Both teams are looking to be solid through 4, but need a 5th.
Trabuco Hills will also be solid through 4 and needs a 5th. They have a low stick in Holly Barker.
Are you guys high school or college coaches? Or maybe bettors? I don’t understand your fascination with the high school division.
I used to try and follow college XC, but I got sick of getting excited for a big meet only for the big names not show and/or everyone else to just tempo run. They don't take any race seriously, not even conference champs or regionals. Just do enough to get by. It all comes down to one race. So not worth spending much time on it. The HSers run hard and compete every week. And Pro XC? Not really a thing.
And also, it’s harder to predict in college XC for the following years because those who redshirt get to use their 5th year of eligibility and it’s hard to know if they will use it or not. Many people want to get out of college in 4 years regardless
#2 Great Oak CA Westin Brown - 4:10 / 9:15 (11) Jack Paradise - 4:18 (11) Jacob Brown - 4:21 (11) Christian Gump - 9:42 (11) Marco Franco - 9:50/4:27 (10) Carson Lynch - 9:57 (11) Ruben Sanchez - 10:01 (10)
PROS: Established xc low stick Westin Brown. Very successful team during the 2023 XC season. 7 runners deep. Great history of success. May be back for vengeance after their 17th place finish at nationals in 2023. Possible coaching help from Doug Soles.
CONS: Not much improvement on the track when compared to their 2023 XC performances. Risk of Westin Brown getting injured. Outside of sophomores Marco Franco and Ruben Sanchez, there isn't any young talent on this team. All of the talent on this team are juniors.
Having nothing but seniors in the top 7 sure didn’t hurt Jurupa Hills in 2014. That year was the only time they made NXN and they placed 10th there. They haven’t been good after that year.
2024 is looking to be the last season Great Oak qualifies for NXN. Even then, they won’t be a lock to qualify because of how many other teams are getting strong and deep
Buchanan also has: Max Jauregui (jr) 15:56 at CIF. Second runner for the team there. 4:23 in the 1600
This makes them 8-deep so this will make all the varsity guys really work hard if they want to keep their spots.
JSerra also has: Cole Carlson (soph) 16:38 at CIF. Fifth runner for the team there. Does not do track. He does tennis instead.
This makes them 6-deep which is important in case a scorer has an off race / sickness / injury, and for tiebreaker / displacement purposes.
Jserra's freshman O'Leary now down to 4:23 and Carlson has quit tennis and is already training for XC.
please for the love of god develop mental toughness for xc and learn to be gritty. jserra won't stand a change against the other california teams if they keep having 4:20 guys run 16:30 at woodward
Jserra's freshman O'Leary now down to 4:23 and Carlson has quit tennis and is already training for XC.
please for the love of god develop mental toughness for xc and learn to be gritty. jserra won't stand a change against the other california teams if they keep having 4:20 guys run 16:30 at woodward
4:20 guys who train like 800/1600 guys are very likely to run 16:30 in cross. The 90s were full of those type of kids.
please for the love of god develop mental toughness for xc and learn to be gritty. jserra won't stand a change against the other california teams if they keep having 4:20 guys run 16:30 at woodward
4:20 guys who train like 800/1600 guys are very likely to run 16:30 in cross. The 90s were full of those type of kids.
With respect, what's a college coach going to put more weight on when recruiting.....sub 1:55/4:15 or sub 16 at Woodward? Sub 16's (meaning 15:40's+) rarely translate to fast 16's or 8's which a college coach would rather see (generally speaking). But for a good perspective, the team is mostly now sophomores and if you look at progress of Arrey, he improved over 1:30 from his sophomore time (17:00) to his junior time (15:26) at Woodward. Will the other sophomores see that bump this fall? Time will tell.
4:20 guys who train like 800/1600 guys are very likely to run 16:30 in cross. The 90s were full of those type of kids.
With respect, what's a college coach going to put more weight on when recruiting.....sub 1:55/4:15 or sub 16 at Woodward? Sub 16's (meaning 15:40's+) rarely translate to fast 16's or 8's which a college coach would rather see (generally speaking). But for a good perspective, the team is mostly now sophomores and if you look at progress of Arrey, he improved over 1:30 from his sophomore time (17:00) to his junior time (15:26) at Woodward. Will the other sophomores see that bump this fall? Time will tell.
doubtful arrey was a 3200 guy running 1600/800 races all season. The sophmores they have are actually just 1600 meter runners that can either do the 800 or 3200
Are you guys high school or college coaches? Or maybe bettors? I don’t understand your fascination with the high school division.
I used to try and follow college XC, but I got sick of getting excited for a big meet only for the big names not show and/or everyone else to just tempo run. They don't take any race seriously, not even conference champs or regionals. Just do enough to get by. It all comes down to one race. So not worth spending much time on it. The HSers run hard and compete every week. And Pro XC? Not really a thing.
California is so interesting to follow. The depth is absolutely insane. “Oh yeah that team is returning with their #7 runner freshman running 4:25”. That was the winning time to win states when I was in high school. And in California that’s an “okay freshman”.
I don't think it's impossible for them to make it with next year's guys. Div II isn't super strong outside the top 5 schools or so. This year at the Mt SAC rain course, you could scrape by to state with 1-2 sub 15 guys and then 3-4 around 15:30-15:40.
Dickran, Watson, Bernardino, Sax, Ingersoll is at least competitive. 3 Sub 16 3 mile XC guys and 2 just barely over 16 at least shows room for improvement by next year.
The doomed category is more around 17 minute 3 mile guys who are older than 9th grade. Just not enough time left in HS for them to improve.
Watson has been constantly injured the last 2 XC seasons. Hopefully he has a healthy senior year.
The teams are so close I wouldn't even try to rank them sequentially, as I just think about them in tiers. Right I see the top tier of NXN candidates as just 3 teams, Great Oak, ML King and Jesuit. Every other team listed, plus a few more, are in the next tier. Based on the strength of other regions returning teams, I don't see California getting an at-large at this moment in time, so I am looking for the 2 NXN teams to come from the top 3. Of course, last year at this time in my rankings, the clear #1 was Ventura. And Dana Hills was #8 with seemingly no hope for NXN because they were 4 deep. Then Dana Hills got a game changing transfer and Ventura got injuries. This leads me to not spend too much time on trying to rank them in such detail yet.
Even though these teams look so close in track times, it would be best to rank Great Oak as #1 in the preseason because of their returning group from XC and the history (even last year they reloaded without Doug Soles and after losing 5 seniors and even more from top JV), and some teams are better at track than XC. Great Oak returns 3 guys from the third place team and Westin Brown is back. This doesn’t mean that Great Oak will be a lock though. Hardly ever anyone is.