Belen Jesuit Prep FL nonseniors at the preseason meet Socarras - 4:13 Mantecon - 4:15 (freshman) Ruiz - 4:25 Magarino - 4:28 Prieguez - 4:31 Cruz - 4:37 (freshman) They took 4th at NXN last year and I think they do it again.
Belen Jesuit Prep FL nonseniors at the preseason meet Socarras - 4:13 Mantecon - 4:15 (freshman) Ruiz - 4:25 Magarino - 4:28 Prieguez - 4:31 Cruz - 4:37 (freshman) They took 4th at NXN last year and I think they do it again.
Belen Jesuit Prep FL nonseniors at the preseason meet Socarras - 4:13 Mantecon - 4:15 (freshman) Ruiz - 4:25 Magarino - 4:28 Prieguez - 4:31 Cruz - 4:37 (freshman) They took 4th at NXN last year and I think they do it again.
they look to return a solid lineup but can they really surpass last year's squad? getting 4th next year with be harder than what it took last year
How I see it: 1. Herriman or Niwot 2. Herriman or Niwot 3. Southlake Carroll Rest of the spots seem to be up for grabs. Belen has the ability to take 4th. They are losing a couple of key guys but so is almost every other top team.
I think more top teams should post their vlogs on here. I happen to find a youtube for the Mira Costa boys team, one of the top california teams that was trying to make nxn. I like seeing how much effort and hard work it takes these teams to reach their goals
This post was edited 9 minutes after it was posted.
Speed ratings have been slightly changed on specific courses (3 mile races in California, the speed ratings are too low depending on the course). These are California speed ratings, and may not be the same as speed ratings from other regions. (I had to speed rate races myself that weren't speed rated) Below is the highest performance speed rating for each runner in the 2023 xc season.
#1 - Great Oak Westin Brown (11) - 188 Jacob Brown (11) - 183 Jack Paradise (11) - 176 Marco Franco (10) - 171 Christian Gump (11) - 169 Carson Lynch (11) - 160 Ruben Sanchez(10) - 154 Nicolas Ovalle (11) - 154 Jack McMurrin (10) - 151 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch out for next year, this team already has their top 5 above 169+. I believe this will be the favorite team coming from California next year. They may be looking for redemption next year, after their 17th place finish at NXN.
#2 - Jesuit SJ Isaac Abbott (10) - 177 Matthew Ogilvie (9) - 171 Chase Cressman (11) - 170 Drake Hoferer (10) - 170 Navin Kadel (11) - 162 Brady Blum (11) - 156 Robert Fuentes (11) - 153 Rafael Jopson (9) - 152 Kyle Jackary (10) - 150 Lucas Alberts (9) - 149 Trevor Felix (11) - 149 - Jesuit has the legendary coach, the talent, the depth, everything! This is the one of the three best california team to watch next year. They will be insane!
#3 Buchanan Luke S (11) - 180 Jansen G (10) - 176 Max J(11) - 170 Michael P(10) - 170 Deaglan G(11) 167 Andrew Ray(9) - 161 Antonio Benitez(11) - 155 Amani R(10) - 151 Matthew C(10) - 151 Dylan Rea (9) - 151 Jose Rico (9) - 150 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch next year. I believe this team has the best 9th-10th graders. These young runners could potentially make huge jumps next year. Their talent potential is insane. Watch out for Buchanan!
#4 - ML King Maximo Zavaleta(10) - 187 Brad Quezado (10) - 177 Brayden Lunetta (11) - 173 Alex Wesołowski (11) - 168 Logan Carlson (10) - 167 Frank Stewart (10) - 156 Zachary Halama (11) - 155 John Sosa(9) - 150 - A new team that has insane talent expect the team to be averaging 175+ at the very start of the season next year. They have 8 solid runners, after that it’s a drop off.
#5 - Arnold Beckman
#6 Mira Costa Isaac Faynsod (11) - 177 Carson Ehman (10) - 171 Ian Hansen (11) - 165 Krish Desai (10) - 165 Carson Ehman (10) - 159 Max Mironowicz (10) - 159 JT Kaplan (10) - 155 Ryan Burger (10) - 154 Jack Barrera (11) - 151 - One of the best California squads for next year. The team already has 4 really good runners and tons of talented sophomores. This team can be huge next year. Very dangerous team next year.
thank god that the top predicted california teams for next year actually have depth. #1, #2, #3, #4, #6 all have very good depth.
Ngl it was stressful watching teams like Dana Hills, San Clemente, Ventura and Oakdale run with only 5 fast runners all season. They were either on or they were off. One runner had a bad day it would effect results tremendously
Speed ratings have been slightly changed on specific courses (3 mile races in California, the speed ratings are too low depending on the course). These are California speed ratings, and may not be the same as speed ratings from other regions. (I had to speed rate races myself that weren't speed rated) Below is the highest performance speed rating for each runner in the 2023 xc season.
#1 - Great Oak Westin Brown (11) - 188 Jacob Brown (11) - 183 Jack Paradise (11) - 176 Marco Franco (10) - 171 Christian Gump (11) - 169 Carson Lynch (11) - 160 Ruben Sanchez(10) - 154 Nicolas Ovalle (11) - 154 Jack McMurrin (10) - 151 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch out for next year, this team already has their top 5 above 169+. I believe this will be the favorite team coming from California next year. They may be looking for redemption next year, after their 17th place finish at NXN.
#2 - Jesuit SJ Isaac Abbott (10) - 177 Matthew Ogilvie (9) - 171 Chase Cressman (11) - 170 Drake Hoferer (10) - 170 Navin Kadel (11) - 162 Brady Blum (11) - 156 Robert Fuentes (11) - 153 Rafael Jopson (9) - 152 Kyle Jackary (10) - 150 Lucas Alberts (9) - 149 Trevor Felix (11) - 149 - Jesuit has the legendary coach, the talent, the depth, everything! This is the one of the three best california team to watch next year. They will be insane!
#3 Buchanan Luke S (11) - 180 Jansen G (10) - 176 Max J(11) - 170 Michael P(10) - 170 Deaglan G(11) 167 Andrew Ray(9) - 161 Antonio Benitez(11) - 155 Amani R(10) - 151 Matthew C(10) - 151 Dylan Rea (9) - 151 Jose Rico (9) - 150 - One of the top 3 California teams to watch next year. I believe this team has the best 9th-10th graders. These young runners could potentially make huge jumps next year. Their talent potential is insane. Watch out for Buchanan!
#4 - ML King Maximo Zavaleta(10) - 187 Brad Quezado (10) - 177 Brayden Lunetta (11) - 173 Alex Wesołowski (11) - 168 Logan Carlson (10) - 167 Frank Stewart (10) - 156 Zachary Halama (11) - 155 John Sosa(9) - 150 - A new team that has insane talent expect the team to be averaging 175+ at the very start of the season next year. They have 8 solid runners, after that it’s a drop off.
#5 - Arnold Beckman
#6 Mira Costa Isaac Faynsod (11) - 177 Carson Ehman (10) - 171 Ian Hansen (11) - 165 Krish Desai (10) - 165 Carson Ehman (10) - 159 Max Mironowicz (10) - 159 JT Kaplan (10) - 155 Ryan Burger (10) - 154 Jack Barrera (11) - 151 - One of the best California squads for next year. The team already has 4 really good runners and tons of talented sophomores. This team can be huge next year. Very dangerous team next year.
thank god that the top predicted california teams for next year actually have depth. #1, #2, #3, #4, #6 all have very good depth.
Ngl it was stressful watching teams like Dana Hills, San Clemente, Ventura and Oakdale run with only 5 fast runners all season. They were either on or they were off. One runner had a bad day it would effect results tremendously
ML King seems to have a little bit of a gap after their #5 guy.
Mira Costa has a solid top 4, but needs a #5 to step up.
And I agree that Jesuit and Buchanan are very deep.
Great Oak always seems to have people come out of nowhere.
FWIW, Beckman has a solid top-4 returning group - Nguyen, Weber, Feaster, Barrera. They also have a solid freshmen (Barris - 4:31 1600), so he could be the one to close the gap. They also have another 4:40 freshman.
And yes, last year, Oakdale’s lack of depth past #5 took away their chances of placing top 3 in the merge and thus going to NXN. Their #5 was a little off at CIF
Here is the math that I am seeing so far for National Boys 2024 XC. Obviously, a lot can happen between now and then.
1. Herriman (UT) 2. Niwot (CO) 3. Cour D'Alene (ID) 4. Mountain View (UT) 5. Belen Jesuit (FL) 6. Southlake Carroll (TX) 7. Great Oak (CA) 8. Crater (OR) 9. Christian Brothers Academy (NJ) 10. American Fork (UT) 11. Franklin (OR) 12. Downers Grove North (IL) 13. Plainfield North (IL)
This is just based off what I know of returners. Obviously, if someone picks up a transfer or someone develops well this can change quickly. I'm sure there are a few young and hungry teams that I don't even know exist prepared to enter this conversation as well. One thing is for certain, Utah, Colorado, and Idaho are much improved recently on the national scene.
CDA is returning guys that have run 9:13 for 3200m at 4500', 4:18 and 4:27 (who is a freshman!) for 1600m also at 4500'. They also have a sophomore that didn't race in indoors that was in between the 9:13 guy and the other guys.
Noe Kemper from Boise ran 4:20 at Simplot games last year and was a 4:12 guy at Arcadia. There's a real possibility that they return a sub 4:10/9:00 guy, ~4:15/9:20, and two more guys in the 9:20's. Their #5 will either be one of their freshman or a guy that has run 16:02 on a fast course and mid-16's on moderate courses.
CDA has to be the heavy, heavy favorite in the NW.
This is the first time I am hearing about Mountain View, Utah. Looks like a potential new strong team that could mix it up with Southlake, Belen Jesuit, CDA
This is the first time I am hearing about Mountain View, Utah. Looks like a potential new strong team that could mix it up with Southlake, Belen Jesuit, CDA
Mountain View UT took 3rd at NXR Southwest in 2022 and got an at-large bid to NXN. They didn’t perform their best at NXN though. 2 of their top 6 guys had an off race there
CDA is returning guys that have run 9:13 for 3200m at 4500', 4:18 and 4:27 (who is a freshman!) for 1600m also at 4500'. They also have a sophomore that didn't race in indoors that was in between the 9:13 guy and the other guys.
Noe Kemper from Boise ran 4:20 at Simplot games last year and was a 4:12 guy at Arcadia. There's a real possibility that they return a sub 4:10/9:00 guy, ~4:15/9:20, and two more guys in the 9:20's. Their #5 will either be one of their freshman or a guy that has run 16:02 on a fast course and mid-16's on moderate courses.
CDA has to be the heavy, heavy favorite in the NW.
Rocky Mountain looks to be shaking things up, even after losing Heemeyer. One of their guys who didn’t run at NXR ran a 10:01 at Simplot. They return: 9:12 at Nike/Jesuit Twilight relays. Can make NXN individually if his team doesn’t. 9:47 at Hoka 10:00 at Hoka 10:01 at Simplot 10:01 at Hoka 10:09 at Hoka 10:12 at Bandanna, (also 16:58 in the NXR NW open race) Only 2 people on this list aren’t going to be seniors next year. They are looking to be 7-deep.
Jesuit OR is another team to watch. They almost beat CDA at Hole in the Wall with only 1 senior, but they didn’t do well at the end of the season. They are going to be deep, but right now they don’t seem to have a low stick.
Franklin will have a strong top 3 (Courcelle, McEwen, McQuillen), but after that the will be a big gap. They will need 2 more guys to step up for this team to be competitive with the other top teams.
CDA is returning guys that have run 9:13 for 3200m at 4500', 4:18 and 4:27 (who is a freshman!) for 1600m also at 4500'. They also have a sophomore that didn't race in indoors that was in between the 9:13 guy and the other guys.
Noe Kemper from Boise ran 4:20 at Simplot games last year and was a 4:12 guy at Arcadia. There's a real possibility that they return a sub 4:10/9:00 guy, ~4:15/9:20, and two more guys in the 9:20's. Their #5 will either be one of their freshman or a guy that has run 16:02 on a fast course and mid-16's on moderate courses.
CDA has to be the heavy, heavy favorite in the NW.
Franklin will have a strong top 3 (Courcelle, McEwen, McQuillen), but after that the will be a big gap. They will need 2 more guys to step up for this team to be competitive with the other top teams.
yeah i am confused about franklin being ranked so high but maybe they have some runners I don't know about.
Looks like SW, then Cali, then NW will be the strongest regions. Midwest could always surprise people as it has in the past.
South looks to be a bit weaker than it was last year (being heavily propped up by Southlake)
Actually, Cali won’t look as strong as they used to be on the boys side. #3 team finished 17th last year. Top 2 CA teams were 5-deep and are losing a ton of people.
Great Oak will be a heavy favorite in the state with everyone healthy. All of the top CA boys teams are graduating a lot of people, to the point where it’s very likely that the #2 boys CA team will be one that wasn’t top 10 in the state last year. #2 boys CA team will probably be Jesuit, Buchanan, or ML King. None of them were in the top 10 in CA last year. Of course, a transfer will help make a team a lot better.
Looks like SW, then Cali, then NW will be the strongest regions. Midwest could always surprise people as it has in the past.
South looks to be a bit weaker than it was last year (being heavily propped up by Southlake)
Actually, Cali won’t look as strong as they used to be on the boys side. #3 team finished 17th last year. Top 2 CA teams were 5-deep and are losing a ton of people.
Great Oak will be a heavy favorite in the state with everyone healthy. All of the top CA boys teams are graduating a lot of people, to the point where it’s very likely that the #2 boys CA team will be one that wasn’t top 10 in the state last year. #2 boys CA team will probably be Jesuit, Buchanan, or ML King. None of them were in the top 10 in CA last year. Of course, a transfer will help make a team a lot better.
Obviously SW is top dog - Herriman, Niwot, Mountain View, AF
Including Southlake Carroll, South has a stronger Austin Vandegrift next year. I heard Jesuit LA is going to be the best they will ever be next year
California has an excellent Great Oak team and 3 other teams with lots of potential - buchanan, ml king, jesuit ca. I wouldn't doc them too hard for not being top 10 in the merge last year considering they return almost everyone - top 10 in merge was all top 50 all-time
Northwest has a very strong top 2 - crater, cda with some teams hoping to get in the mix like rocky mountain, franklin,
For the last few years there was a top 10 team at NXN from the Midwest (even though many people didn’t predict it), and I think it can happen again. Plainfield North and / or Downers Grove North can get top 10 at NXN.
