IMO cream rises to the top. The atlanta 2020 course was stupid, way too hilly and they had plenty of wind. Galen rupp showed up and buried the entire field, do you think that if the race was run on a record-type course the results would have been any different? If they were running on the chicago course with 45 degree weather do you think Scott Fauble or Jared Ward would have run 1-2? IMO people make too big of a deal about different marathon courses. Whether you are running Valencia or you are running NYC, its still 26 miles of putting one leg in front of the other. the guy who has the aerobic strength to crush the hills in NY is probably the same guy who is going to have the engine to drop the field in valencia.
In an american context, if they ran the trials on a pancake flat TT-type course, the guy who runs away with it is by definition the strongest, and most likey the guy who would handle the hills in paris the best.