code5800 wrote:
As much as I'd like for Ingebrigtsen to be the #1 Mid Distance Runner in the world. I just don't see it happening. He'll likely peak by 2028 Olympics and Based on how he has ran since 2020, It could be something in the realm of:
1500m (3:27.50-90) Current: 3:28.32
Mile (3:45.90-Current PB) Current: 3:46.46 — He needed a Pacelight + Supershoes to barely be below the European Record of Cram in Oslo. Don't see a race that'll give him better conditions and exact pacing. Though, if he has yet to reach his peak, I can definitely see him going under 3:46. But, I'd be a betting man to say he'd likely never go under 3:45. Given what Jakob needed to hit 3:46 mid. It's unlikely he'd compete with El G, Noah Ngeny, or Noureddine Morceli. Plus, for someone like Jakob to have a 1% Increase in PB at his age and level of fitness would be doping levels of Insanity. His 1500m PB under the greatest momentum at the Olympic Finals only transitions to 3:43.51 *If he held it an extra 109.344m*. At age 23, Hicham DID have a similar 1500 PB to Jakob at 3:28.91 BUT, Hicham was already a 3:44 Miler. So his strength was Certainly better.
2000m (4:50.01 — Unlikely to PB on a rare event)
3000m (7:25.60 - 7:26.50) — He's a strong runner but I definitely don't see him going below 7:25. Given his focus on the 1500m will be his downfall. He does have Sub-7:25 potential if he smartly shifts from the 1500.
Two Miles (8:03-8:05) — Hitting a Sub-8 just isn't in Jakob's capacity. Guy barely dipped below 4:00/mile pace for 3K let alone hold it another 200m
5000m (12:40-12:45) — IF he plays it smart and starts focusing on the 5K like Komen did around the same time he was in his 1500 prime. He definitely could go below 12:40. But, I feel like Yared Nuguse's rise and Getting upset by Jake Wightman at World's is certainly getting to Jakob. So he'll most likely be laser focused on the 1500 especially with World's and Olympics in the next Two years.
10,000m (Sub 27:10) — For some reason It's pretty rare for many Sub 3:30 1500/13:00 5K runners to actually perform well at the 10K level. Only exception was Mo Farah. But beyond him — Komen (27:38), Lagat (27:47), and a couple others. ***Granted, I do believe Gebrselassie in 1998 (3:31.76 Indoor 1500) would've been a Sub-3:30 guy but, we never got to see it.
and Given The usual patterns of Distance greats, I don't see Jakob becoming a road runner or Marathoner. Atleast not while he's in his 20s by his 30s he'd probably fade and be like 1:00-1:02 Half Marathon / Sub-2:10 Marathoner and Just call it quits. Huge speculation but many Greats rarely care for the Marathon.
Just my 2cents, It could go some way.
That didn't age very well... I wouldn't be surprised if JI runs at least 3:25, 7:18, 12:32... He is a great talent, has the drive and has a technical advantage over the old school runners with the shoes and pacing lights. Records are meant to be broken. Sooner or later. It's normal.