NCState has to be the pacesetters, or they lose the Team Trophy to New Mexico.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. Won't it also negatively affect nc states own 4-5-6-7 as well if the race goes out fast? (Including 6-7 here because I have no idea who will end up scoring as their #5.) NC state needs 4 & 5 to place well to win.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. Won't it also negatively affect nc states own 4-5-6-7 as well if the race goes out fast? (Including 6-7 here because I have no idea who will end up scoring as their #5.) NC state needs 4 & 5 to place well to win.
You are essentially confirming my pick of New Mexico to win the Team Trophy.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. Won't it also negatively affect nc states own 4-5-6-7 as well if the race goes out fast? (Including 6-7 here because I have no idea who will end up scoring as their #5.) NC state needs 4 & 5 to place well to win.
You are essentially confirming my pick of New Mexico to win the Team Trophy.
And they could! That is why I don't understand the thinking that NC State needs to take it out fast. Honestly asking.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. Won't it also negatively affect nc states own 4-5-6-7 as well if the race goes out fast? (Including 6-7 here because I have no idea who will end up scoring as their #5.) NC state needs 4 & 5 to place well to win.
I can see Bush and Seymour doing better vs NM in a slower race, not a faster race. If it is fast race I do not think the whole NC St pack will be at the front. If you did not watch the Michigan video I posted, you should. ND is the one that seems to want a faster race.
Maybe someone can explain this to me. Won't it also negatively affect nc states own 4-5-6-7 as well if the race goes out fast? (Including 6-7 here because I have no idea who will end up scoring as their #5.) NC state needs 4 & 5 to place well to win.
I can see Bush and Seymour doing better vs NM in a slower race, not a faster race. If it is fast race I do not think the whole NC St pack will be at the front. If you did not watch the Michigan video I posted, you should. ND is the one that seems to want a faster race.
So you DO agree that one of these teams wants a faster pace to improve their chances for the Team Trophy. With that in mind, why would it be advantageous for either Valby or McCabe to play pacesetter (up to the point when the real race starts) for them? It wouldn’t.
Therefore, you may finally begin to agree that nobody is breaking 20min on this course tomorrow.
I hate people who obsessively accuse a college runner of cheating just because they are worried that the runner they are in love with might get beaten.
I can see Bush and Seymour doing better vs NM in a slower race, not a faster race. If it is fast race I do not think the whole NC St pack will be at the front. If you did not watch the Michigan video I posted, you should. ND is the one that seems to want a faster race.
So you DO agree that one of these teams wants a faster pace to improve their chances for the Team Trophy. With that in mind, why would it be advantageous for either Valby or McCabe to play pacesetter (up to the point when the real race starts) for them? It wouldn’t.
Therefore, you may finally begin to agree that nobody is breaking 20min on this course tomorrow.
It won't be McCabe. But it is Valby's style. I think Valby will put the pressure on at 1K, or maybe she waits to 3K (or maybe she just ups the pressure there). Chelangat has less of a big kick off a slow pace than either McCabe or Tuohy and Valby did not wait with her.
And you are damn right that a clean runner losing to someone who is likely doping is outrageous. I find the idea that it could take place in college incredibly dispiriting.
It won't be McCabe. But it is Valby's style. I think Valby will put the pressure on at 1K, or maybe she waits to 3K (or maybe she just ups the pressure there). Chelangat has less of a big kick off a slow pace than either McCabe or Tuohy and Valby did not wait with her.
Valby is in front running, show off my fitness mode. That is exactly what she will try to do tomorrow. Whatever is happening with team dynamics will have zero effect on her strategy.
She probably has one goal, and that is to try and drop tuohy as fast as possible and hang on to the lead.
Which is the point of my posts here. I think everyone, except me (mark my posts), has been getting it wrong, by pigeonholing Valby with the idea that she’s going to yet again break away at 1k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
Which is the point of my posts here. I think everyone, except me (mark my posts), has been getting it wrong, by pigeonholing Valby with the idea that she’s going to yet again break away at 1k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
If you ask me, the shorter the real race, the better for Tuohy and McCabe, and maybe Roe, Jipkuri, and others
But it will be a 1.5km race, where the real ‘race-within-the-race’ starts.
The main reason I disagree with your prediction is what I saw Valby do in her last race, in preparation for this race. She attacked that last hill purposely, with a vengeance; not to win the race (which wasn’t necessary at that point), but for the mental preparation.
Therefore, I do not Valby will need a gap before the real race starts. Valby and Chelangat and Roe and Cook and McCabe can relax and make NCState be pacesetters up to that point in the race. NCState has to be the pacesetters, or they lose the Team Trophy to New Mexico.
First of all, your opinion is valid....not trying to shoot you down. I simply have no idea what Valby can do in the very difficult last 1.5km, after already running a difficult first 4.5km.
Yes Valby ran that hill at Regionals just fine...but it was the only hill. This is not about who can run one hill...this course will be won by who can run several hills; recover; run more hills; recover; and then run the last hill and do a sprint finish.
We know Mercy can on this course...as can Roe obviously. Tuohy, Chmiel and McCabe have some experience on this course - but all have extensive experience on hilly courses during important races. Valby faded hard in 2021 in the last 2km on a less difficult course. She is a different runner now...but still, I highly doubt she wants to try to win straight up against Mercy/Tuohy from the base of the last hill.
As for the pacesetter part, I think there are other teams that are trying to Podium that will want the pace faster. OSU, ND, NCState, ALA - they will all have runners up front pushing....NM benefits the most from a slow pace. I don't think this plays into the individual race at all for the top 6 or 7 runners.
Which is the point of my posts here. I think everyone, except me (mark my posts), has been getting it wrong, by pigeonholing Valby with the idea that she’s going to yet again break away at 1k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
I mean c’mon, surely she has already seen the video of the cross-country meltdown of the great Floridian, Jenny Baringer. There is no need for her to go out like that tomorrow, with risk of repeating that.
Which is the point of my posts here. I think everyone, except me (mark my posts), has been getting it wrong, by pigeonholing Valby with the idea that she’s going to yet again break away at 1k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
If you ask me, the shorter the real race, the better for Tuohy and McCabe, and maybe Roe, Jipkuri, and others
I think Valby’s fitness will trump them over the last 1.5k.
I think she and her coach will have figured it out, that their best strategy is to relax and conserve energy up until the real race starts; and let the others vying for the Team Trophy set the pace up to that point.
I disagree. If Valby is truly so much faster and fitter than the rest of the field like people are saying, it doesn't make sense to wait.
Because, if she is close to the others at 4k off a slower pace, Tuohy can out kick her from 2k out or atleast make it very very close. We have seen that in Tuohy's closing times all season.
I simply have no idea what Valby can do in the very difficult last 1.5km, after already running a difficult first 4.5km.
So then, why should Valby be the one making that first 4.5km extra difficult by setting the pace? Makes no sense, since she doesn’t need to, with no Team Trophy on the line.