Valby served as a fast pacer, leading to pr's. This is someone willing to take the pace, someone who led NCAA xc already last year. But the size of those pr's really suggests another short, flat course.
Valby wasn't the only athlete to 'lead' xc last year so not sure why that is significant. She runs at the front, as do a lot of runners.
Valby was exactly tied with McCabe at ncaas last year in the splits at 2k and 4k. They both lead, in a group. At 4k there were 4 additional runners within .2 seconds. At the 5k split Valby had dropped to 18th.
she does seem to like to go to the front, maybe co-leading. Today she just grabbed the lead before 2K I believe and started dropping Mercy after 3K
LACCTIC rated Valby's 18:25 equivalent to a 14:57. Her 18:58 from two weeks ago is rated a 15:03. So a great performance on an apparently short course given that 18:58 was on a fast course.
Touhy's race is rated a 15:21.
Current top three ratings Valby 15:00 Chelangat 15:23 Tuohy 15:24
Ok. Do you think Chelangat can run 15:03 in a 5k? Keep in mind she ran her 15:18 pr in a fast pro race. I guess my point is, as I learned, don't take these ratings too literally.
Interesting also about the Piane race. She was within 1 second of Kelati and Kurgat's previous course record. I always had fun with the speed ratings, but they have their limitations, and I think lacctic moreso.
They are a tool. But there are so many variables and the lacctic ratings were never intended as a direct conversion. The Chelangat example illustrates this. She is 25 and a well tested runner. We have a good picture of what she can run. And she was given a rating 15 seconds faster than her lifetime pr, which she set at the fast Mt. Sac's race.
It will be interesting to see how well the ratings predict the championship.
Chelangat was obviously going all out to try to win the SEC but 14 seconds would certainly be a big 5K track PR. Tyynismaa's 15:30 rating today is 3 seconds better than her track PR and Van Camp was six seconds better.
They rated McCabe's win a 15:37 and Mazza-Downie's win a 15:31 with Heckel at 15:34 and Larkin at 15:39.
Today's top rated races Valby 14:57 Chelangat 15:03 Olemomoi 15:20 Tuohy 15:21 Van Camp 15:29 Chmiel 15:30 Tyynismaa 15:30
Alabama could be a big surprise if these ratings are accurate.
The problem is they are not realistic 5k conversions and these ratings just don't factor in race variables. Forget Chelangat. Does anyone think her teammate can run 15:20? That would be shocking.
I think 10ks are being given a bit too much credit (something I was worried about from the beginning because of the number of people whose 10k PR is a tactical conference race). Im digging into whether that may be biasing the scores down.
The source of that was the article on the LRC front page.
one other thing J Gault may want to consider: Thorvaldson had mono early in the season and has been struggling to get back to form. Loral Winn, who beat Thorvaldson ran 17:15 at VA in 5K or 30- 40 seconds behind Appleton, Menninger and Barnett of VA who were all 50 seconds behind Tuohy today. Boogard of Ole Miss was 15 seconds behind Winn at VA and 20 seconds behind her today,
Another example that shows keying off of Thorvaldson's 5000 time from the Spring may be selective. Helmers of Ole Miss with a 16:36 pr beat Thorvaldson by 23 seconds.
I think 10ks are being given a bit too much credit (something I was worried about from the beginning because of the number of people whose 10k PR is a tactical conference race). Im digging into whether that may be biasing the scores down.
The in season fitness rating for women seem off for the top runners, but more accurate for the slower runners.
For example, Chelangat 15:30 while Valby is at 15:03 when they were so close in the last race. Chelangat ran under 15:20 several times last year.
Kelati once ran a 14:50 rated race than came in third running 15:14 at BU on the superfast track a few weeks later. I have developed a healthy disregard for time conversions. Valby should be in the 15:10-15:20 range on the track. Maybe sub 15:10 in a fast race.
Regarding Kelati, she ran that 15:14 Indoor on Dec. 7. She won the Cross Championship on Nov. 23. She won the Regional (your “rated race”, if I’m not mistaken) on Nov. 17. She won the Conference on Nov. 1.
There could be several reasons why she didn’t run her best race on Dec. 7.