I read Starliper's blog about the injuries, what she went through for two years. Multiple stress fractures, achilles issues. Glad she is OK now and getting back to form. Hope she stays healthy.
“I think AR and CO will be more focused on this race than they were the OSU Jamboree.“
If Wetmore’s post-race comments are any indicator, CO will be ‘more focused’ in Madison. I think AR is just young; Ewert hasn’t run since Dellinger ‘21, Thorvaldson hasn’t run XC since HS, and Cochran and Eudaly are real frosh…who got their ‘welcome to collegiate 6K racing’ at one of the most challenging courses in the country.
I’m most interested in seeing 6K fitness at this stage of the season, most notably amongst those who ran at Stillwater and surprised.
“I think AR and CO will be more focused on this race than they were the OSU Jamboree.“
If Wetmore’s post-race comments are any indicator, CO will be ‘more focused’ in Madison. I think AR is just young; Ewert hasn’t run since Dellinger ‘21, Thorvaldson hasn’t run XC since HS, and Cochran and Eudaly are real frosh…who got their ‘welcome to collegiate 6K racing’ at one of the most challenging courses in the country.
I’m most interested in seeing 6K fitness at this stage of the season, most notably amongst those who ran at Stillwater and surprised.
I agree AR is not that good this year, but Van Camp and Thorvaldson should be better than they showed at OSU, at least I think so. The rest of the squad, maybe too but still not a top 10 team.
“I think AR and CO will be more focused on this race than they were the OSU Jamboree.“
If Wetmore’s post-race comments are any indicator, CO will be ‘more focused’ in Madison. I think AR is just young; Ewert hasn’t run since Dellinger ‘21, Thorvaldson hasn’t run XC since HS, and Cochran and Eudaly are real frosh…who got their ‘welcome to collegiate 6K racing’ at one of the most challenging courses in the country.
I’m most interested in seeing 6K fitness at this stage of the season, most notably amongst those who ran at Stillwater and surprised.
I completely forgot about Ewert and Thorvaldson! Hope they’re doing alright, they just completely fell off the map. It’d be nice to see them back up there in the mix of things. I spent quite a few years up in Wyoming and know the kinds of conditions that Thorvaldson pretty much self-trained in during HS and was sure rooting for her!
I read Starliper's blog about the injuries, what she went through for two years. Multiple stress fractures, achilles issues. Glad she is OK now and getting back to form. Hope she stays healthy.
Absolutely agree. That had to have been tough. And, she ends up in the NCAA 5000 finals, and is looking to be a top-10 potential here at Nuttycombe next week. Nice!
“Starliper's blog about the injuries, what she went through for two years.“
Some physical ailments just don’t respond to even the best therapies and recovery plans, certainly not on the timelines we sometimes expect as successful and competitive athletes. But, the biggest challenges are probably mental/emotional, particularly when we’ve been highly successful and faced nothing more challenging than the routines of rigorous training. She should be lauded for making it back to compete at the levels that she does now.
“Starliper's blog about the injuries, what she went through for two years.“
Some physical ailments just don’t respond to even the best therapies and recovery plans, certainly not on the timelines we sometimes expect as successful and competitive athletes. But, the biggest challenges are probably mental/emotional, particularly when we’ve been highly successful and faced nothing more challenging than the routines of rigorous training. She should be lauded for making it back to compete at the levels that she does now.
Absolutely! It’s actually pretty amazing how she “sprang back” and is better than ever. The probably self-induced mental torture she may have put herself through while not being able to train/compete had to have been difficult to experience.
Jerry Schumacher will be back in town with his Oregon Ducks. Recall Jerry was incredibly successful coach at Wisco until he left for Nike. Will be interesting to see how quickly the Oregon programs are back on the podium and contending to NCAA. I believe Jerry’s son also transferred to Oregon from Stanford and may be running.
Wonder if he will train the college runners the same way he trains the pros?
Not sure where you’re going with that. If you’re referring to Houlihan I won’t go there. Actual training, will be what has worked for him when he coached at UW and evolved as a pro coach which is aerobic strength based work. He is secretive about the specific Bowerman TC training but it’s obviously very high volume at moderate to moderately high intensity. Definitely not speed oriented. He has a quirky system they refer to as “Badger miles” that is basically a way to run more volume than you actually count. He learned and adapted his training from Martin Smith. UW men were basically the top collegiate distance program when he left. Presumably they will benefit from Nike tech but probably can’t go to altitude as much.
In advance of any dramatic pronouncements about what the results this weekend might mean, it’s instructive to go to tfrrs and scroll thru previous years results and note where some of this year’s contenders finished back in the day. For example, Ceili McCabe finished 153d as a frosh in 2019. A couple weeks later she had a respectable finish in the B12 championships. There are many other examples, but the common practice of projecting any kind of future potential based on early season efforts — particularly those run at 5K — is simplistic and not reliable. Entertaining…but not reliable.
I checked out LACCTIC’S race simulator for the women’s race and it came up with:
1 NC State 2 New Mexico 3 Northern Arizona 4 North Carolina 5 Georgetown 6 Colorado 7 BYU 8 Notre Dame 9 Utah Valley 10 Michigan
1 Katelyn Tuohy NC State SO 2 Samantha Bush NC State JR 3 Everlyn Kemboi Utah Valley SR 4 Isabel Van-Camp Arkansas JR 5 Emily Covert Colorado SO 6 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico JR 7 Sydney Seymour NC State SR 8 Emily Venters Utah SR 9 Elise Stearns Northern Arizona SO 10 Marlee Starliper NC State FR 11 Aubrey Frentheway BYU SR 12 Amelia Mazza-Downing New Mexico SO 13 Annika Reiss Northern Arizona JR 14 Taryn O'Neill Northern Arizona SR 15 Emma Heckel New Mexico SO 16 Amina Maatoug Duke SO 17 Samree Dishon New Mexico SO 18 Maggie Donahue Georgetown JR 19 Savannah Shaw NC State SR 20 Brynn Brown North Carolina SO 21 Chloe Scrimgeour Georgetown SO 22 Kaylee Mitchell Oregon State JR 23 Sami Corman Georgetown SR 24 Lexy Halladay-Lowry BYU JR 25 Kayla Windemuller Michigan JR
NC State possibly having 4 in the top-10 is pretty legit considering its Nuttcombe, and as was mentioned either earlier in this thread, or in another, New Mexico is an outside threat. Throw Chmiel (if healthy) into the mix and its a phenomenal potential team performance.
3rd overall projected for Everlyn Kemboi would be awesome for her, she’s had a great start to the 2022 season!
I like all these picks, but Kaylee Mitchell might surprise and be much further up. She got fourth at Joe Piane in 16:09, beating (on your list) Samantha Bush, Gracelyn Larkin, Sydney Seymour, and Marlee Starliper whom LACCTIC has in the top ten. Also Maatoug looked great at Paul Short, finishing a second behind Everlyn Kemboi, a legitimate top ten, maybe even top five, contender.
In advance of any dramatic pronouncements about what the results this weekend might mean, it’s instructive to go to tfrrs and scroll thru previous years results and note where some of this year’s contenders finished back in the day. For example, Ceili McCabe finished 153d as a frosh in 2019. A couple weeks later she had a respectable finish in the B12 championships. There are many other examples, but the common practice of projecting any kind of future potential based on early season efforts — particularly those run at 5K — is simplistic and not reliable. Entertaining…but not reliable.
Well of course people can have bad days. In 2019, 2 weeks before Nuttycombe McCabe finished 18 seconds behind Lauren Gregory of AR at the Chile Pepper. At Nuttycombe that became 62 seconds and proved to be an aberration.
But here are the top 20 from last year with their finish at Nationals. Some had the bad race at Nationals but the high place at Nuttycombe sure seemed to show the potential for Nationals. Some seem to have tried too hard for high finish.
But you are right, a bad result especially when there are better results for the runner might be ignored. However for the top 2 teams this will be 2nd head to head race.
1 Ceili McCabe West Virginia 3 2 Kelsey Chmiel NC State 6 3 Taylor Roe Oklahoma State 5 4 Jenna Magness Michigan State 14 5 Katelyn Tuohy NC State 15 - 11 at 5K faded + early fall 6 Bethany Hasz Minnesota 7 7 Cailie Logue Iowa State 4 8 Alison Pray Southern Utah 20 - 4 at 5K faded 9 Amanda Vestri Syracuse DNS 10 Abby Kohut-Jackson Minnesota 39 - 32 at 5K faded 11 Bethany Graham Furman 40 - 27 at 5K faded 12 Stefanie Parsons New Mexico 36 13 Aubrey Frentheway BYU 38 - 29 at 5K faded 14 Megan Hasz Minnesota 23 15 Gracelyn Larkin New Mexico 21 16 Emma Heckel New Mexico 18 17 Molly Born Oklahoma State 73 18 Samantha Bush NC State 32 19 Lynsie Gram Michigan State 48 20 Lexy Halladay BYU 164
I like all these picks, but Kaylee Mitchell might surprise and be much further up. She got fourth at Joe Piane in 16:09, beating (on your list) Samantha Bush, Gracelyn Larkin, Sydney Seymour, and Marlee Starliper whom LACCTIC has in the top ten. Also Maatoug looked great at Paul Short, finishing a second behind Everlyn Kemboi, a legitimate top ten, maybe even top five, contender.
The Paul Short results were not what I expected. Very fast time, and a number of runners close to Kemboi who had pushed Roe and Cook. My take is the course must have been very fast and Kemboi (and the whole UT Valley team) was not at their best 1 week after the Jamboree. I can't see all of those UNC, Georgetown, etc runners being that close to Roe. But I might be dead wrong. And that is what this week will help clear up.