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  • registered

    FastTuohy

    Member since 02/22/2020.

    6,704 posts. Last post 2 years ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 4:33pm EDT
    re: astro

    astro wrote:

    But take one of their top two away and they fall far enough that they would get gapped by NCSt's current, no Chmiel line up.

    Their top 2 were 9 and 10 and their 6th was 20th. So that would add 10 to todays gap. Nationals probably closes the gap by 10 so we are back to a ~10 point win for NC State (w/o Chmiel in top 5). Pretty tight even with 1 NM top runner slipping back 15 seconds. Until gets a 6th runner close to Starliper/Chmiel or whoever their 5th is they need pretty much all top 5 to be on (as they were last year) - unless other team's runners slip back.

  • registered

    astro

    Member since 11/26/2019.

    5,766 posts. Last post 1 month ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 4:51pm EDT
    re: FastTuohy

    Nationals would work on both teams that way. But in any event losing one of their top two would inevitably increase the gap. Even if it is a ten point difference, that is not negligible. But all hypothetical. Of course if NCSt does not have Chmiel it becomes a real race.

  • registered

    Stopwatcher

    Member since 12/22/2019.

    428 posts. Last post 2 years ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 5:08pm EDT
    re: astro

    astro wrote:

    Nationals would work on both teams that way. But in any event losing one of their top two would inevitably increase the gap. Even if it is a ten point difference, that is not negligible. But all hypothetical. Of course if NCSt does not have Chmiel it becomes a real race.

    Yes seriously I don't agree with that kind of math at all

    I mean look at it this way NC State beat New Mexico by 13 and New Mexico only beat Alabama by 2... If this was such a great showing for New Mexico how come they barely hung on to second???

    I think at Nationals NC State would have won by more! because their top dogs would have done better compared to New Mexico's tops

    NC State could put four in the top 15 again or at least four in the top 20

    New Mexico might not have anyone in the top 10 and they might not have anyone in the top 15...

    State could go 1, 10, 14, 20, 60 without chmiel. New Mexico could be 15,20,25,35,40

    I think a race like this is just a mini sampling of Nationals and basically the differences will only get slightly increased so NC State would win by maybe 20 or 30 if they had the exact same performances at Nationals

  • Buehler

    Anonymous Poster

    3 years ago 09/30/2022 5:16pm EDT
    re: Stopwatcher

    Which convention are you guys using for the covariant derivative? Shouldn't there be an absolute sign around the second equation on the second line?

  • registered

    Stopwatcher

    Member since 12/22/2019.

    428 posts. Last post 2 years ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 5:23pm EDT
    re: Stopwatcher

    I also think shaw could step up she's a 1534 5k runner... She should be NC states 6th easy!

  • registered

    FastTuohy

    Member since 02/22/2020.

    6,704 posts. Last post 2 years ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 5:28pm EDT
    re: Stopwatcher

    Stopwatcher wrote:

    astro wrote:

    Nationals would work on both teams that way. But in any event losing one of their top two would inevitably increase the gap. Even if it is a ten point difference, that is not negligible. But all hypothetical. Of course if NCSt does not have Chmiel it becomes a real race.

    Yes seriously I don't agree with that kind of math at all

    I mean look at it this way NC State beat New Mexico by 13 and New Mexico only beat Alabama by 2... If this was such a great showing for New Mexico how come they barely hung on to second???

    I think at Nationals NC State would have won by more! because their top dogs would have done better compared to New Mexico's tops

    NC State could put four in the top 15 again or at least four in the top 20

    New Mexico might not have anyone in the top 10 and they might not have anyone in the top 15...

    State could go 1, 10, 14, 20, 60 without chmiel. New Mexico could be 15,20,25,35,40

    I think a race like this is just a mini sampling of Nationals and basically the differences will only get slightly increased so NC State would win by maybe 20 or 30 if they had the exact same performances at Nationals

    I think between NC St, AL, NM you could have 15 in top 30. A 60 for NC St I think would hurt a lot.

  • TuohyFan

    Anonymous Poster

    3 years ago 09/30/2022 8:06pm EDT
    re: FastTuohy

    https://www.thestridereport.com/post/first-thoughts-tuohy-s-statement-victory-notre-dame-men-earn-key-win-over-strong-tennessee-team


    The beginning of the article starts with Garrett Zatlin stating:

    “Tuohy is so good.

    So, so, so good.”

    The article could have ended there.

  • NC weather sucks right now

    Anonymous Poster

    3 years ago 09/30/2022 8:16pm EDT
    re: xcfanns

    Wondering if some of the teams are stuck in Indiana due to weather. I would hate to have to fly in this stuff.

  • registered

    7empest

    Member since 04/01/2020.

    346 posts. Last post 3 years ago.
    3 years ago 09/30/2022 8:39pm EDT
    re: Stopwatcher

    Stopwatcher wrote:

    Jedsdead wrote:

    Sounds like it would have been a great race to see. It does go to show that there are no 'locks' when it comes to the team title in XC. NC has 3 in the top 6; 4 in the top 12, but only wins by 13 pts. The team title is so dependant on team depth and on having your top runners all healthy when it comes to Nationals.

    Since Chmiel is training with the squad, we can assume she she be back racing soon. But if NC State loses any of the top 5, the team title becomes very questionable. Of course, this is the same for every other team...and NC States advantage is that they have several runners near the 5th slot that can step in. Most teams do not.

    Great race by Tuohy. It would have been nice to see if Mercy tried to go with Tuohy or not. Again, even if not live streamed, hopefully their is a good race video that gets posted...just to see how the runners closed out the race.

    Great to see that Bush and Seymore ran well. Starliper ran another consistent time, which is great to see with her coming off the injury. She should get stronger through the year.

    Yeah I don't know, they still beat New Mexico pretty soundly without their second best runner

    And you could argue without their 6th or 7th best runner either

    Missing shaw holt and chmiel!

    This basically means NC State just needs four of their top five and they're going to get the win

    While the other teams need all their top five and they need NC State to lose two out of their top five which is very very unlikely

    I’m not sure why so many are bringing up Shaw? She would have made no difference! She will not be in their top 7 by years end. Holt will not be in the top 7 as well. Now Chmiel is a different story…..she would have made the margin huge between NCS and NM.

    By the way, Howlett got knocked down in the race and that is why she was not there 5th today. It was early in the race.

    I think after Wisconsin you will see these as the top 7 for the Pack:

    Tuohy, Starliper, Chmiel, Bush, Seymour, Howlett, Quarzo,

  • Pabo Sancho

    Anonymous Poster

    3 years ago 09/30/2022 8:42pm EDT
    re: NC weather sucks right now

    NC weather sucks right now wrote:

    Wondering if some of the teams are stuck in Indiana due to weather. I would hate to have to fly in this stuff.

    I just flew from Paris -- my arms are very tired.

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