That 1:05 was a peak race on a taper, rested legs ect. Big difference. His race today was a tune up. No taper ect. Plus add that he came from a very cold dry climate to an extremely humid warmer climate. I am not saying he is ready to qualify for trials now but he has quite a few weeks to prepare for Rotterdam. I haven’t watched the race but he had an opportunity to have a payday and took it and PR ing wasn’t as important.
That 1:05 was a peak race on a taper, rested legs ect. Big difference. His race today was a tune up. No taper ect. Plus add that he came from a very cold dry climate to an extremely humid warmer climate. I am not saying he is ready to qualify for trials now but he has quite a few weeks to prepare for Rotterdam. I haven’t watched the race but he had an opportunity to have a payday and took it and PR ing wasn’t as important.
I WOULD agree with you but it's soooo far off his PR. over 3 minutes. For him to qualify he needs to have the race of his life... and to be in the shape of his life.. and he didn't show that today.
Agree but he still has quite a few weeks to prepare. Agree he has to have a race of lifetime. What is it only his 4 th marathon? Most people PR in the marathon between 3-5 marathon s. It take some practice and luck.
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I don't watch his channel, anyone know why he has picked Florida for his last two halfs? I get that it's at sea level, but there have to be other races in the winter. Maybe AZ or even TX seem to have less humid conditions in the winter than Florida. Maybe he just wants the challenge but seems to be it's better to gauge where your fitness is, in better conditions.
That 1:05 was a peak race on a taper, rested legs ect. Big difference. His race today was a tune up. No taper ect. Plus add that he came from a very cold dry climate to an extremely humid warmer climate. I am not saying he is ready to qualify for trials now but he has quite a few weeks to prepare for Rotterdam. I haven’t watched the race but he had an opportunity to have a payday and took it and PR ing wasn’t as important.
I WOULD agree with you but it's soooo far off his PR. over 3 minutes. For him to qualify he needs to have the race of his life... and to be in the shape of his life.. and he didn't show that today.
First off (As someone who has run within 1-min of Seth at Pikes Peak Marathon...he actually has run 1-min faster than I've ever run) I will say that he is a very, very good high altitude climber. His Ascent split at Pikes during the marathon (on a fairly warm day) is very, very good and would win the Ascent flat out most years (anything sub 2:12 at Pikes is very good climbing and puts you in contention for the win).
I'd imagine being a "high altitude guy" (I think he spent a lot of time in Buena Vista when he was growing up at 7k-8k and often loves training in Leadville) certainly helps with Pikes and any Colorado 14er FKTs etc. He may have a pretty high Vo2max (he's quite light as well...maybe 5'6", 115lb?...I'm just guessing there?) and obviously some natural talent and the time/resources to basically train full time it appears.
I also think he has the potential to run an OTQ (sub 2:17)...especially with the carbon fiber shoes and super foams these days.
As someone who has failed to get my 3rd OTQ in '16 and '20 (although I've run sub 2:20 five times in my career as well as bests of 1:04/2:16 in non-carbon shoes), I can also speak to how difficult it can be to try "Any Surface Any Distance" and jump back and forth from mountain running to flat road marathons.
Now the thing Seth has going for him is that he actually doesn't appear to really do any ultramarathons. I've jumped around with 100-milers (disasters) and A LOT of 100km and 50-mile races while mixing in road marathons. That is certainly a recipe for some of my slower marathons (including a 2:23 at Rotterdam), but also when I got 16th at Boston (2:19:12) on a windy day and a couple 2:19-2:20 efforts at Houston more recently.
I've raced Seth head to head at the Speedgoat 50km once and he started off strong, but faded hard in the final 12 miles or so. I think his "sweet spot" might actually be 1-3 hour high altitude mountain races. That actually goes more in line with a road marathon effort/time duration (2 hours etc) the physiological demands. Obviously he is better at climbing and uphills compared to downhills (from what we've seen so far), but his talent level and (probably high Vo2max) make him able to run at least a 1:05 half on the flats...which almost lines up with a sub 2:18:00.
It appears he has a treadmill now so no excuse for not being able to do any "heat training" here in the winter in Colorado. I was actually surprised to see that affiliate link with NordicTrack because I tried to get them to sponsor me and I only got crickets..but maybe I don't have the contacts that he has.... Anyway Treadmills can be great for simulating hot and humid conditions and it only takes a few weeks to get some good adaptations. Coming from high altitude down to sea level also makes handling humid and hot temps easier I think (especially as a lighter/shorter guy with less surface area).
That being said I agree with most posters on here that he probably needs to work on his speed and relative Running Economy just faster than goal Marathon Race pace more. Things like 8 x 1km at 10km pace or faster as well as 1-mile, 2-mile Tempo Repeats at half marathon pace or faster. Slogging around in Leadville at ultramarathon trail running paces is a horrible idea right now (when you're already really good at high altitude) if one's goal is an OTQ marathon. It's something I'd do training for 50-mile to 100km ultramarathon trail races though!
I don't follow his training though, (and I've often failed at the mountain to roads transition), but I do know what it takes to run under 2:18:00. At our age (I believe he is a year older than me or so?), speed is certainly not working in our favor.
Finally, I think we probably have a lot of overlap in YouTube followers, and I'd say the vast majority of people will not respond well to training like Seth (or me for that matter) does. So we can be horrible examples for the masses. People try to find things that are "relatable" or get general training advice that will take them from a 4 hour to a low 3 hour marathon (for example). One has to be very careful with realizing that difference and providing relevant advice as a "coach/influencer." IMO there is a responsibility with the training content that you preach in this space. With a larger subscriber count comes a larger responsibility IMO. I realize (as someone with no kids and no "full time job") that most people don't have the luxury of time, gear, and resources to train that people like Seth and I have. Recognizing that difference in lifestyle (and balance) shapes training plans and philosophy when you're giving advice and talking about distance running training theory as a coach online.
Anyway, just my 2 cents as someone who has been in the YouTube/running game for over 14 years, the MUT Running game for 10 years, and qualified for 2 OTQs.
Completely agree with Sage that Seths sweet spot is 1-2 hour races. I thinks that’s why people get frustrated with Seth. He has some natural talent but seems stubborn to listen to advice from others. He wants to train doing only the things he likes to do such as high volume running but refuses to train his deficits.
I WOULD agree with you but it's soooo far off his PR. over 3 minutes. For him to qualify he needs to have the race of his life... and to be in the shape of his life.. and he didn't show that today.
That being said I agree with most posters on here that he probably needs to work on his speed and relative Running Economy just faster than goal Marathon Race pace more. Things like 8 x 1km at 10km pace or faster as well as 1-mile, 2-mile Tempo Repeats at half marathon pace or faster. Slogging around in Leadville at ultramarathon trail running paces is a horrible idea right now (when you're already really good at high altitude) if one's goal is an OTQ marathon. It's something I'd do training for 50-mile to 100km ultramarathon trail races though!
Seth, pay this man to coach you! Dozens of people have told you this, yet for whatever reason you keep ignoring speedwork.
1:08/1:09 today is not an awful time - maybe could've pulled out a 1:07 in better weather but I just don't how he does sub 2:20 in Rotterdam especially if he keeps up his usual training. He did an all-out 13.1 miles@5:13/mile today and needs to pull off 26.2 miles@5:20/mile in 4-5 weeks. I just don't see it happening but I hope I'm wrong.
Completely agree with Sage that Seths sweet spot is 1-2 hour races. I thinks that’s why people get frustrated with Seth. He has some natural talent but seems stubborn to listen to advice from others. He wants to train doing only the things he likes to do such as high volume running but refuses to train his deficits.
This is exactly my frustration with him. It's not "hate".
Great post by Sage, other than the “Seth would win the Pikes Peak Ascent most year part” as Joe Gray basically cruises in after he falls off CR pace but have plenty in the tank if he needs to hold someone else off.
I've raced Seth head to head at the Speedgoat 50km once and he started off strong, but faded hard in the final 12 miles or so. I think his "sweet spot" might actually be 1-3 hour high altitude mountain races. That actually goes more in line with a road marathon effort/time duration (2 hours etc) the physiological demands.
This is exactly true. Unfortunately, you can't monetize "I'm a great short-course mountain runner", and he wouldn't be great globally at it.
Not sure. His growth came from when he was focused on trail/mountain races and doing shoe reviews so there is some demand and value to it. But I think he’s cycled out a lot of the subs from then or they no longer watch (and I think that category of viewer is a lot of LR folk on these SJD threads, myself included as someone who cycled out and unsubscribed) and the only people left are seemingly newbs impressed by low HR and constant slow/long runs regardless of benefit who thinks consuming ‘too much goodness’ keeps you up at night and isn’t something that a person with absolutely no idea would say.
His view counts don’t mesh with his subs any more so it looks like a lot of people hit subscribe at some point and have since tuned out to the lifestyle rubbish and road focus. It’s kind of like an empty sub count to a degree, but I guess the remaining real subs send him money and buy enough butter emojis and use his links enough to keep this all going.
Not sure. His growth came from when he was focused on trail/mountain races and doing shoe reviews so there is some demand and value to it. But I think he’s cycled out a lot of the subs from then or they no longer watch (and I think that category of viewer is a lot of LR folk on these SJD threads, myself included as someone who cycled out and unsubscribed) and the only people left are seemingly newbs impressed by low HR and constant slow/long runs regardless of benefit who thinks consuming ‘too much goodness’ keeps you up at night and isn’t something that a person with absolutely no idea would say.
His view counts don’t mesh with his subs any more so it looks like a lot of people hit subscribe at some point and have since tuned out to the lifestyle rubbish and road focus. It’s kind of like an empty sub count to a degree, but I guess the remaining real subs send him money and buy enough butter emojis and use his links enough to keep this all going.
I don’t know the exact stats, but his crazy growth period started shortly after the Pikes Peak Ascent in 2019 when he was training for both the World Mountain Champs and an OTQ at Amsterdam. He hit 100,000 subscribers on the same day he won Pikes Peak in August 2020 and since then, he has enjoyed slow but continued growth.
I think Sage gave a fair assessment of Seth’s current status/prospects. He needs to bridge the gap between the Marathon-type fitness he showed in the first half of Amsterdam 2019 and the Naples Half in early 2021 AND the aerobic fitness shown at Pikes Peak in 2021 and 2022. In other words, as Sage suggests, Seth is a guy that can grind for two hours plus, so it is far from unthinkable to think he can run a 2:18.
Good race! Good win! Not where he needs to be for an Olympic Qualifying time, if that is still his goal, but good race. Temps looked to be 65-66 degrees for the race, so about what was expected from mid last week.
According to weatherunderground, race time conditions were about 69 degrees and over 80% humiditity. This might not seem extreme, but it had to be very uncomfortable for a runner coming from a cold and dry climate who was completely unacclimated.
I wonder if he picked a Florida race because it was most likely to not be cancelled.
Weather Underground is where I pulled my info from. Race started at 0600. Temps were 65-66 degrees, very little wind. I do not know why he picked Florida, you may be right, and the fact he would be less likely to deal with snow or ice.
I’ve been watching his vlogs for a bit and I noticed a sharp increase in subs right around the time he cut open the Nike 4% shoe. I felt like a lot of folks were looking for videos on the shoe to see what all the hype was about and that favored well with the YouTube algorithm.
I enjoy the channel for the most part. His drone footage while up in the mountains is really nice during treadmill runs.
He is always upfront about not training like he does, so the entire “he’s going to get new runners in trouble” is bogus.
Some of the footage is tedious and you can tell he’s probably just trying to hit a certain time mark for the algorithm. Cut out some of the B-roll footage from his vlogs and they would probably be cut down by a substantial amount.
I can understand the frustration with his “underperforming” and lack of desire to be coached. He’s enjoying some success doing it his own way which is only going to strengthen his resolve to keep chugging along.