unknown unknowns wrote:
2) Mu & her coach have a plan for an 800/1500 double down the road and the Wanamaker is an opportunity for her to dip a toe in the (elite) water.
3) She's bored and wants to challenge herself, confident she can compete and not get smoked.
So we have a range between feeling strong enough to challenge Purrier and Koko with 20 sec. faster mile PBs
and
4) Cavorty’s take.
that is not feeling strong enough to challenge Wilson and Goule in the 800m
I predict 4:24 in 5th place. Armstrong predicts 4:30 but can't be pinned down.
I honestly cant predict how she'll go.probably either first or last,or somewhere in the middle.Who knows she might be able to run a sub 50 400,sub 1.55 800,and sub 4.00 1500 but the only woman who has ever done that is caster semenya.I think she could end up running a sub 22.5 200,,sub 49 400,and sub 1.53 800,but im not sure she has the endurance to run a top class mile.
Too many are basing a prediction off of her existing mile time in which she did not race all out. There are many guys who are well trained but open the season at 4:30 and then drop to 4:20 a week later.
youawarebrah wrote:
I live near nyc and was just going to buy tickets.....holy cow they are expensive! (200 bucks)
never mind, no wonder this is a dying sport
Go see Dolly Parton and you'll pay $1500
Armstronglivs wrote:
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Despite routinely underestimating Mu and looking the fool later for it, you sound exceedingly confident here, so let’s stake a wager on this.
If after Millrose her PB in the mile still begins with 4:3x, then I will return to this forum and sing the praises of your distance running wisdom.
If, however, Mu goes well under 4:30 in this race (let’s say sub-4:27), you agree to never post on a LRC thread about her ever again.
What do you say? You got that kind of confidence in your bloviating?
I am not actually that interested in your opinion. I do not see her as a miler, which is an endurance event, so I would be surprised if she goes below 4.30, unless the field drags her to it.
I haven't under-estimated Mu, either. I have said I wouldn't be surprised if she runs in the region of 1.55. She has. How is that looking a fool? What I am sceptical of is that she beats a doped wr of 1.53x - unless she also dopes. She has a long way to go.
Well, let’s review the record, then.
Shortly after her collegiate record in the 800 last April, you repeatedly characterized her as having absolute no chance of getting anywhere near the women’s 800m WR.
- You claimed she was five seconds away from the record(!), failing to sensibly contextualize her performance (her collegiate record was her first outdoor 800 of the season and was run in cold and very windy conditions and she had no competition or pacing) as already being more like 1:56 in good conditions. Again, first outdoor 800 of the season. Terrible conditions. No competition. But you treated the finishing time as if it was the one true measure of her ability absent all that context.
- You also said she lacks sufficient 400m speed to break the 800n WR because you pegged her as something like a 50.5 athlete based on an indoor open 400m run out of blocks, failing to credit her (even then) with her (much more relevant) low 49 split on the 4 x 4.
Less than 4 months later, at the end of an extremely long competitive year and in her first months as a 19-year old pro, she wins two Olympic
golds, runs 1:55.04 (only 1.76 seconds off the WR), and runs the fastest 400m split in years at 48.32.
Again, these truly historical performances were there hiding in plain sight back in April with only a little bit of context to what she had already done and an understanding of the conditions, competition, training cycle, etc. But you couldn’t see them. And, yes, to anyone familiar with what you were saying in those threads, you did look like a fool after Tokyo.
As for her “not being an endurance athlete” and, hence, not suited for an “endurance event” like the mile, you may want to rethink both your labeling of the event and your appreciation for her aerobic capacity.
Yes, the mile does demand a large percentage of aerobic capacity. But it’s more stamina and speed endurance than endurance proper. We’re not talking about her running a marathon here. Additionally, running economy and perception of speed are hugely important (for Mu, 2:10 for an 800 split will both feel comfortable and be smoothly run). Finally, the element most neglected by folks like you is simply the “immeasurable” factors like mindset, confidence, and competitive fire., which Mu has in spades. (I’m guessing her VO2 Max and running economy measurables would also be ridiculously high, though.)
You might also want to look back at what she did in high school, as she finished 2nd at AAU XC Nationals on a legit 5K XC course as a 15 year old. Off of natural talent and competitive will. And a little over a year later, she runs an American record (and comes up .13 seconds shy of the WR) for indoor 600m as a 16-year old.
A truly unique blend of world-class speed and more-than-adequate aerobic strength. And, most importantly, the heart and mind of a champion.
But y’all just don’t seem to get what we’re looking at here. That’s often what happens when people encounter generational talents in real time, though, I guess…
At any rate, since you are SO confident that there is “no way” she can eclipse last week’s (B-heat public workout) time by a whole 10 seconds, then just accept my wager. Put your credibility on the line. I’m happy to put mine out there.
He will say that he is correct if she runs slow. He will say that she is doping if she runs fast. That is what he always does.
Yeah, I’m familiar with his shtick… [insert eye roll emoji]
I guess we better prepare for the doping allegations, then. She ain’t going back to her home region to run in front of all her family and friends and on NBC in the biggest non-championship indoor meet to slog out a 10th place 4:30…
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
I am not actually that interested in your opinion. I do not see her as a miler, which is an endurance event, so I would be surprised if she goes below 4.30, unless the field drags her to it.
I haven't under-estimated Mu, either. I have said I wouldn't be surprised if she runs in the region of 1.55. She has. How is that looking a fool? What I am sceptical of is that she beats a doped wr of 1.53x - unless she also dopes. She has a long way to go.
Well, let’s review the record, then.
Shortly after her collegiate record in the 800 last April, you repeatedly characterized her as having absolute no chance of getting anywhere near the women’s 800m WR.
- You claimed she was five seconds away from the record(!), failing to sensibly contextualize her performance (her collegiate record was her first outdoor 800 of the season and was run in cold and very windy conditions and she had no competition or pacing) as already being more like 1:56 in good conditions. Again, first outdoor 800 of the season. Terrible conditions. No competition. But you treated the finishing time as if it was the one true measure of her ability absent all that context.
- You also said she lacks sufficient 400m speed to break the 800n WR because you pegged her as something like a 50.5 athlete based on an indoor open 400m run out of blocks, failing to credit her (even then) with her (much more relevant) low 49 split on the 4 x 4.
Less than 4 months later, at the end of an extremely long competitive year and in her first months as a 19-year old pro, she wins two Olympic
golds, runs 1:55.04 (only 1.76 seconds off the WR), and runs the fastest 400m split in years at 48.32.
Again, these truly historical performances were there hiding in plain sight back in April with only a little bit of context to what she had already done and an understanding of the conditions, competition, training cycle, etc. But you couldn’t see them. And, yes, to anyone familiar with what you were saying in those threads, you did look like a fool after Tokyo.
As for her “not being an endurance athlete” and, hence, not suited for an “endurance event” like the mile, you may want to rethink both your labeling of the event and your appreciation for her aerobic capacity.
Yes, the mile does demand a large percentage of aerobic capacity. But it’s more stamina and speed endurance than endurance proper. We’re not talking about her running a marathon here. Additionally, running economy and perception of speed are hugely important (for Mu, 2:10 for an 800 split will both feel comfortable and be smoothly run). Finally, the element most neglected by folks like you is simply the “immeasurable” factors like mindset, confidence, and competitive fire., which Mu has in spades. (I’m guessing her VO2 Max and running economy measurables would also be ridiculously high, though.)
You might also want to look back at what she did in high school, as she finished 2nd at AAU XC Nationals on a legit 5K XC course as a 15 year old. Off of natural talent and competitive will. And a little over a year later, she runs an American record (and comes up .13 seconds shy of the WR) for indoor 600m as a 16-year old.
A truly unique blend of world-class speed and more-than-adequate aerobic strength. And, most importantly, the heart and mind of a champion.
But y’all just don’t seem to get what we’re looking at here. That’s often what happens when people encounter generational talents in real time, though, I guess…
At any rate, since you are SO confident that there is “no way” she can eclipse last week’s (B-heat public workout) time by a whole 10 seconds, then just accept my wager. Put your credibility on the line. I’m happy to put mine out there.
I am not really very interested in wading through an essay. If you can't make your points succinctly I'll pass. I recall estimating she might run 1.55 for the 800 (she has, so I was right about that) but I said she wouldn't beat a doped wr without doping. I'll stand by that. I also said I would be surprised if she goes below 4.30 in the upcoming mile. So if she does - I will be surprised.
everyone's dad wrote:
He will say that he is correct if she runs slow. He will say that she is doping if she runs fast. That is what he always does.
Not quite. I say that if she - or anyone - beats Kratochvilova's world mark for the 800 they will have to be doped to do it. It is a doped mark that has lasted nearly 40 years and no other dopers have so far been able to take it. No clean runner will.
Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??..............
Is it possible she wants to keep her appearance and doesn't want to lose in the 800 and that's why she switched
Possible her training isn't going that great in the 800 and she feels she'll probably lose at that distance and might get Beat Again by high school kids and doesn't want that to impact her endorsements or Etc
If she runs sub 4:25 it makes sense for her to be competing in the mile, if she runs in the 430s it was because she didn't want to take a risk of losing in the 800
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Yeah, I’m familiar with his shtick… [insert eye roll emoji]
I guess we better prepare for the doping allegations, then. She ain’t going back to her home region to run in front of all her family and friends and on NBC in the biggest non-championship indoor meet to slog out a 10th place 4:30…
I like how you think you know her mind. Over-identification perhaps on your part.
What if she runs 4:22 at Millrose?
moo moo wrote:
I predict 4:24 in 5th place. Armstrong predicts 4:30 but can't be pinned down.
Pinned down to what? Do you want it in tenths?
moo moo wrote:
What if she runs 4:22 at Millrose?
Then I guess she has run 4.22. What if she doesn't?
Just curious what your take will be at 4:22, 4:26, and 4:30. You should be thinking about it. You usually pull out the doping accusation if somebody runs faster than you expect so that is the one that I predict.
LOL!!! Sorry to have taxed you so much, bruh. Facts and context and all… Others with more attention span and commitment can read it and decide for themselves, I guess.
At any rate, you didn’t just say she wouldn’t beat the 800 WR; you said she wouldn’t come anywhere near it.
And at the end of a very long and exhausting season—one where she raced almost every weekend between early January and mid June and then had to proceed through rounds at three major championship meets between June and August—she showed up to Pre and, despite the exhaustion and pressure to exceed her Olympic performance, gutted out an American record that put her 1.76 seconds from the WR.
Presuming she stays healthy, it strains credulity to think that this 19-year old will not further substantially close that gap as a pro when she has tremendous flexibility to now control her training and racing schedule and can set up rabbited races somewhere like Monaco with ideal conditions and near peak fitness.
I’m sure when she runs 1:54 or better that you’ll conveniently forget what you’ve said previously or revert to being unwilling to consider a reply with any complexity or detailed analysis…
moo moo wrote:
Just curious what your take will be at 4:22, 4:26, and 4:30. You should be thinking about it. You usually pull out the doping accusation if somebody runs faster than you expect so that is the one that I predict.
Since you've run a bunch of times past me - why stop there, what if she runs faster, like 4.20, or even 4.16 or 4.12? After all, this is Mu we are talking about and to you keyboard warriors there is nothing she isn't capable of. You also know for sure that she can't be doping - like every other elite, when it has been officially estimated that 1 in 2 championship athletes are.
I've said she isn't a miler - nothing has so far suggested that - and that for a 400/800 runner a sub-4.30 mile would be a good time. I would be surprised if she runs faster than that and dubious if it's a lot faster.
why not 8 wrote:
Ummmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm??..............
Is it possible she wants to keep her appearance and doesn't want to lose in the 800 and that's why she switched
Possible her training isn't going that great in the 800 and she feels she'll probably lose at that distance and might get Beat Again by high school kids and doesn't want that to impact her endorsements or Etc
If she runs sub 4:25 it makes sense for her to be competing in the mile, if she runs in the 430s it was because she didn't want to take a risk of losing in the 800
Exactly, can't believe more people aren't mentioning that she might be ducking the 800m. Why else would she switch to a race she has no chance of winning. She ran the 1500m in high school a bunch of times and never ran an elite time. Is she really so much better now or is this just because she doesn't want to lose to high school kids in the 800-meter
Armstrongleaves wrote:
LOL!!! Sorry to have taxed you so much, bruh. Facts and context and all… Others with more attention span and commitment can read it and decide for themselves, I guess.
At any rate, you didn’t just say she wouldn’t beat the 800 WR; you said she wouldn’t come anywhere near it.
And at the end of a very long and exhausting season—one where she raced almost every weekend between early January and mid June and then had to proceed through rounds at three major championship meets between June and August—she showed up to Pre and, despite the exhaustion and pressure to exceed her Olympic performance, gutted out an American record that put her 1.76 seconds from the WR.
Presuming she stays healthy, it strains credulity to think that this 19-year old will not further substantially close that gap as a pro when she has tremendous flexibility to now control her training and racing schedule and can set up rabbited races somewhere like Monaco with ideal conditions and near peak fitness.
I’m sure when she runs 1:54 or better that you’ll conveniently forget what you’ve said previously or revert to being unwilling to consider a reply with any complexity or detailed analysis…
You really are the master of waffle, aren't you? To say what? What is your point? Has Mu run 1.53 yet? Are you her publicity agent?