Does anyone know Jakob's fastest ever closing 100 in the 1500m? If it did happen where Hocker and Jakob were neck and neck at the finishing straight it could get interesting.. But I doubt that would happen. Jakob likes to dominate and control the race to his liking and he's extremely good at it. If he feels there may be an athlete with a better finishing kick than him he's going to make sure he doesn't put himself in that position with them at the end of a race.
Heck, Hocker and Centro could go 1-2 if the rest of the world is dumb enough to jog and make it a final sprint. And since the rest of the world in this race consists of milers, and that's what milers like to do, jog around and then lose at the end to the kickers, yeah sure Hocker could win.
What I don't understand in this thread is that apparently only the Americans have a good kick in a slow race. And boy anyone else.
everybody knows wrote:
What I don't understand in this thread is that apparently only the Americans have a good kick in a slow race. And boy anyone else.
Centro, Houlihan, Simpson, Chelimo, Murphy ... we have an excellent record in recent years of getting medals at Worlds/Olympics from runners who would get dropped in fast races.
Yeah OK our steeplechasers aren't kickers.
Hocker is not in the same class as Jakob. And currently, neither is Centro. For Hocker to out-sprint Centro in a pedestrian (by world standards) 1500 says very little about his chances at Tokyo.
A factor that hasn't been taken into account here is international experience, and particularly championship experience. Jakob has a lot of that already; Hocker doesn't. That's going to make it so much harder for him. Any mistakes and he doesn't even make it past the heats.
This is a very 'American-centric' thread. Winning the US trials in the 1500 - and very little else - doesn't offer much for predictions in the cauldron that is the Olympics. The only exception I might make for that is in the sprints, where - aside from the Jamaicans - the US always has had the fastest athletes. But not in the md events. It is a long way back to Dave Wottle. (Centro was a bit of a fluke. A final in 3.50! I can't see that happening this year.)
You have to go back to 2017 Worlds to find the most recent global 1500 final with a ROUGHLY similar opening pace to the US Olympic Trials final. Lots can change between now and Tokyo but if you don’t think Hocker’s performance from Sunday (or NCAAs, neither of which he may be able to replicate!) even has a CHANCE to contend for an Olympic medal, you are incorrect. I’m not a huge fan of Hocker as a long-term medal threat due to his bizarre form (seems like he will get hurt a lot), but I can interpret facts as they stand right now.
The slow PR argument is idiotic, he has never raced in a paced professional meet.
Hocker Trials
2:56.65 + 38.64 = 3:35.28
2017 Worlds
1st Manganoi
2:53.87 + 39.74 = 3:33.61
2nd Cheruiyot
2:53.68 + 40.31 = 3:33.99
3rd F. Ingebrigtsen
2:54.03 + 40.50 = 3:34.53
michiganrunner55 wrote:
The last two 3:35 races Hocker ran is equivalent to 3:31 or 3:32 in a time trial/ Diamond league type race. Still puts him 3 or 4 seconds off of Jakob. But I like his chances in championship racing
I can't see how you have come to that conclusion. The fact is, he has never broken 3:35. There's no way at all of knowing how a sit and kick performance translates into a faster rabbited race, you're just speculating. He actually has a big incentive to go and post a fast time, maybe in Monaco, to give the rest of the field something to think about. Right now, everyone knows what Hocker's one trick is so Jakob and the rest will just grind him down, they aren't going to make it a 3:35 race which becomes something close to a lottery
JohnR wrote:
everybody knows wrote:
What I don't understand in this thread is that apparently only the Americans have a good kick in a slow race. And boy anyone else.
Centro, Houlihan, Simpson, Chelimo, Murphy ... we have an excellent record in recent years of getting medals at Worlds/Olympics from runners who would get dropped in fast races.
Yeah OK our steeplechasers aren't kickers.
Houlihan? What's she won at a global champs?
On paper Jakob is much better, more experience, faster PR, but in a 3:35 or slower race Hocker might take anyone down this kid likely has the fastest kick in the world.
Also remember most of championship races are much slower than TT so the likelihood of a slower race is way more likely and please don’t be fool to think that Hocker can’t run faster than 3:35 I would not be surprised if he can run something like 3:30 with good pacing.
+this.
jakob will not let it come down to a burn up over 100. i think he will do a cheruiyot and just lead it around in a 3:30/29 race. I dont see any other runners right now in the 1500m that can run 3:30/3:29 when required. Jakob and Tim can, and theres no Tim.
31 sec last 300m?
Stop smoking cra…
Can Niekerk 30:81
Johnson 30:85
Bolt 30.97
So Jakob now runs 31 at the end of a 1500m race lol
Karma Police wrote:
Passant wrote:
and MacDaddy Makhloufi?
Or Ollie Hoare.
Isn't MacDaddy banned yet? I remember Gressier found a bag full of drugs belonging to the Morracan?
abcrunning wrote:
So Jakob now runs 31 at the end of a 1500m race lol
Better update your irony detector.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Hocker is not in the same class as Jakob. And currently, neither is Centro. For Hocker to out-sprint Centro in a pedestrian (by world standards) 1500 says very little about his chances at Tokyo.
A factor that hasn't been taken into account here is international experience, and particularly championship experience. Jakob has a lot of that already; Hocker doesn't. That's going to make it so much harder for him. Any mistakes and he doesn't even make it past the heats.
This is a very 'American-centric' thread. Winning the US trials in the 1500 - and very little else - doesn't offer much for predictions in the cauldron that is the Olympics. The only exception I might make for that is in the sprints, where - aside from the Jamaicans - the US always has had the fastest athletes. But not in the md events. It is a long way back to Dave Wottle. (Centro was a bit of a fluke. A final in 3.50! I can't see that happening this year.)
I agree. Centro raced perfectly to a t tactically this weekend. His positioning could not have been better, destroyed Engels and the other leading candidates. But his kick and his fire to win just didnt seem there at the end, he didn't grit it out to the end just kind of let Hocker win. Hocker got himself in a stupid position and then dug deep and put every fiber of his being into winning with an incredible kick. That won't work against an entire field of 3:30 guys.
"Must have missed the race where Jakob ran 3.28 off 2.57 at 1200m, closing in 31 seconds for the final 300m."(quote)
??? I assume you are being facetious. They hit the 1200m at 2.47.6 in that race. So, closer to 41 for the final 300m.
Armstronglivs wrote:
This is a very 'American-centric' thread. Winning the US trials in the 1500 - and very little else - doesn't offer much for predictions in the cauldron that is the Olympics.
2012: Manzano stuns reigning WC Bronze medalist Centro to win the Olympic Trials. Wins silver with a very possible doper in front of him.
2016: Centro easily dispatches field with Robby Andrews and Ben Blankenship in his wake. Wins Gold with potential dopers in 2nd, 4th and 5th. Non-factor FTW at Olympic Trials Blankenship finishes 8th in the World.
But lecture us on how this is American-centric. I guess we should be slurping the Brits or Aussies with all their recent 1500 global medals...Right.
Armstronglivs wrote:
A factor that hasn't been taken into account here is international experience, and particularly championship experience.
I hope you are wrong, but it is a fact that so far, Hocker has run against people who he knows, most of whom he knows he can beat. It will be interesting to see how he does when that is not the case.
DownUndah wrote:
skurey wrote:
Hocker in a laugher
Braindead the US arent medalling Norway, Britain and Australia are all already far better than them this year
Not really. Kerr and Wightman had basically the same kick as Hocker and Centro in a race 5 seconds slower. They're close.
Chaz, Brad, and the Boys wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Hocker is not in the same class as Jakob. And currently, neither is Centro. For Hocker to out-sprint Centro in a pedestrian (by world standards) 1500 says very little about his chances at Tokyo.
A factor that hasn't been taken into account here is international experience, and particularly championship experience. Jakob has a lot of that already; Hocker doesn't. That's going to make it so much harder for him. Any mistakes and he doesn't even make it past the heats.
This is a very 'American-centric' thread. Winning the US trials in the 1500 - and very little else - doesn't offer much for predictions in the cauldron that is the Olympics. The only exception I might make for that is in the sprints, where - aside from the Jamaicans - the US always has had the fastest athletes. But not in the md events. It is a long way back to Dave Wottle. (Centro was a bit of a fluke. A final in 3.50! I can't see that happening this year.)
I agree. Centro raced perfectly to a t tactically this weekend. His positioning could not have been better, destroyed Engels and the other leading candidates. But his kick and his fire to win just didnt seem there at the end, he didn't grit it out to the end just kind of let Hocker win. Hocker got himself in a stupid position and then dug deep and put every fiber of his being into winning with an incredible kick. That won't work against an entire field of 3:30 guys.
Agreed, Hocker puts himself on the rail in every race, ends up in a box, and so far has managed to escape the box and win. But he needs to avoid the rail and that box in Tokyo.
THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
This is a very 'American-centric' thread. Winning the US trials in the 1500 - and very little else - doesn't offer much for predictions in the cauldron that is the Olympics.
2012: Manzano stuns reigning WC Bronze medalist Centro to win the Olympic Trials. Wins silver with a very possible doper in front of him.
2016: Centro easily dispatches field with Robby Andrews and Ben Blankenship in his wake. Wins Gold with potential dopers in 2nd, 4th and 5th. Non-factor FTW at Olympic Trials Blankenship finishes 8th in the World.
But lecture us on how this is American-centric. I guess we should be slurping the Brits or Aussies with all their recent 1500 global medals...Right.
Anyone who wins an Olympic medal is a possible doper - including an American. I wouldn't choose to go down that route if I were you.
But as I pointed out, before Centro in 2016 - whose win I consider a "propitious concatenation of circumstances" (a fluke, in other words) - you have to go back to 1972 and Wottle to find an American md Olympic champion. It has been a long time between drinks.
Since then it has mostly been Africans, with the odd Brit or whatever. But the chances of an American without international form (Hocker) winning it this year are pretty slim.