longjack wrote:
and no, you don't need a 47 quarter to run 152, even with woman's math.
51 with 355 will do just fine.
except athing will have 49 with the 355.
Yet no one has gotten near 1.53 for nearly forty years. Math doesn't create records. Runners do.
think first wrote:
longjack wrote:
and no, you don't need a 47 quarter to run 152, even with woman's math.
51 with 355 will do just fine.
except athing will have 49 with the 355.
I suppose you're could be right. Semenya ran 49 and 3:59 for 1:54.
So it seems that to run 1:53 Mu would need either 49 and 3:55 or 48 and 4:00. Either way still lots of work to be done.
Semenya is male. She can't be compared with biological females.
I am estimating Mu is more a 400/800 runner than an 800/1500 runner. If she was running 1500 times comparable to her 800 time she would be in the region of 3.55-57, not 4.10. I would be very surprised if she got anywhere near 4.00 for the 1500. She might however go below 50 for the 400, but for a woman that still isn't fast enough to run 1.53 for the 800.
How do you define near?
Armstronglivs wrote:
longjack wrote:
and no, you don't need a 47 quarter to run 152, even with woman's math.
51 with 355 will do just fine.
except athing will have 49 with the 355.
Yet no one has gotten near 1.53 for nearly forty years. Math doesn't create records. Runners do.
Women 1500m record was deemed unbeatable, stood for 22 years and yet got broken.
Bekele records seemed untouchable, but here we are.
Semenya surely could have gotten that 800m WR as she was in 1:50 shape (49 and 3:59 the same season), but I guess didn't want to deal with scrutiny if she did break it.
As I mentioned, 800m WR is a result from a 100% speed based runner. Someone with slightly less speed but with significantly better strength can get it and that person can be Athing Mu, if she stays healthy.
I stand by my opinion that women 800m WR is soft and women running 1:59 is borderline embarassing.
You don't need 47 speed to run 1:53. Krato was 100% speed based, therefore her true potential in the 800m was untapped, as she lacked strength to go faster.(quote)
K was not "100% speed based", as the 800 is still an aerobic event. It is not won by sprinters. K was also a tremendously strong runner, as both her build and finish demonstrated. She was probably the female equivalent of a Juantorena.
The only qualification I might add is that I don't think a runner would need to be as fast as she was over the 400 to beat her 800 time, but I do think that runner would need to be at least capable of 49-low - and, sadly, likely juiced.
Nike is knocking wrote:
How do you define near?
Below 1.54. (As I have previously indicated, I dont trust anything from 1.54-56xx to be clean. Too many of those performances are questionable).
Her 1500 time will keep on coming down.
Trust me
Well with "100% speed based" I mean that most of her capabilities in 800m came from her 400m speed. Most male 1:48 - 1:53 runners can't crack 48s 400m. I myself ran 1:54 off 52 in 400 and 3:55 in 1500m. I would say 49 low and 4:05 should definitely be enough to run 1:53. Or maybe even 50 and 4:00. So Mu basically needs to keep the speed and build strength to touch that WR.
Armstronglivs wrote:
You don't need 47 speed to run 1:53. Krato was 100% speed based, therefore her true potential in the 800m was untapped, as she lacked strength to go faster.(quote)
K was not "100% speed based", as the 800 is still an aerobic event. It is not won by sprinters. K was also a tremendously strong runner, as both her build and finish demonstrated. She was probably the female equivalent of a Juantorena.
The only qualification I might add is that I don't think a runner would need to be as fast as she was over the 400 to beat her 800 time, but I do think that runner would need to be at least capable of 49-low - and, sadly, likely juiced.
think first wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Yet no one has gotten near 1.53 for nearly forty years. Math doesn't create records. Runners do.
Women 1500m record was deemed unbeatable, stood for 22 years and yet got broken.
Bekele records seemed untouchable, but here we are.
Semenya surely could have gotten that 800m WR as she was in 1:50 shape (49 and 3:59 the same season), but I guess didn't want to deal with scrutiny if she did break it.
As I mentioned, 800m WR is a result from a 100% speed based runner. Someone with slightly less speed but with significantly better strength can get it and that person can be Athing Mu, if she stays healthy.
I stand by my opinion that women 800m WR is soft and women running 1:59 is borderline embarassing.
The women running it aren't embarrassed by it.
You should be embarrassed however by keeping referring to Semenya, who as a DS athlete is a biological male and no longer competing in the event because she won't relinquish the advantage she has of male levels of testosterone.
I dont regard any of the present wr's in track as clean and those that have stood for years- like Flojo's, the 400m record and Kratochvilova's are, in my view, absolutely not. Clean athletes cannot set wr's in a doped sport.
think first wrote:
Well with "100% speed based" I mean that most of her capabilities in 800m came from her 400m speed.
Most male 1:48 - 1:53 runners can't crack 48s 400m. I myself ran 1:54 off 52 in 400 and 3:55 in 1500m.
I would say 49 low and 4:05 should definitely be enough to run 1:53. Or maybe even 50 and 4:00.
So Mu basically needs to keep the speed and build strength to touch that WR.
Armstronglivs wrote:
You don't need 47 speed to run 1:53. Krato was 100% speed based, therefore her true potential in the 800m was untapped, as she lacked strength to go faster.(quote)
K was not "100% speed based", as the 800 is still an aerobic event. It is not won by sprinters. K was also a tremendously strong runner, as both her build and finish demonstrated. She was probably the female equivalent of a Juantorena.
The only qualification I might add is that I don't think a runner would need to be as fast as she was over the 400 to beat her 800 time, but I do think that runner would need to be at least capable of 49-low - and, sadly, likely juiced.
You can't keep making comparisons with male performances - even yours. They don't apply.
jabouko wrote:
Her 1500 time will keep on coming down.
Trust me
Maybe. But I don't see a 3.55 as possible for a 4.10 runner.
Innocent until proven guilty, my friend. Bolt was most likely doped too, but here we are. Better shoes, that new pacing tech and you might get a talented clean runner achieve what doped runners did in the past. Semenya is a great example as she has a broad spectrum to refer to. Not to mention that she was sandbagging that 800m...
Armstronglivs wrote:
think first wrote:
Women 1500m record was deemed unbeatable, stood for 22 years and yet got broken.
Bekele records seemed untouchable, but here we are.
Semenya surely could have gotten that 800m WR as she was in 1:50 shape (49 and 3:59 the same season), but I guess didn't want to deal with scrutiny if she did break it.
As I mentioned, 800m WR is a result from a 100% speed based runner. Someone with slightly less speed but with significantly better strength can get it and that person can be Athing Mu, if she stays healthy.
I stand by my opinion that women 800m WR is soft and women running 1:59 is borderline embarassing.
The women running it aren't embarrassed by it.
You should be embarrassed however by keeping referring to Semenya, who as a DS athlete is a biological male and no longer competing in the event because she won't relinquish the advantage she has of male levels of testosterone.
I dont regard any of the present wr's in track as clean and those that have stood for years- like Flojo's, the 400m record and Kratochvilova's are, in my view, absolutely not. Clean athletes cannot set wr's in a doped sport.
I will stick my neck out and suggest she could run 49-high for the 400 and 1.55 for the 800 at her eventual peak, which could be any time in the next 3 or 4 years. It depends on whether she is physically mature now and from appearances, with her height (5'10") and build, I think she is, so I doubt she will get much faster.
Why not? Considering we take 400m AND 1500m performances into equation. What is about 800m that makes women with great 400m speed and good 1500m stamina perform worse than men with the same attributes in the 800m?
Armstronglivs wrote:
You can't keep making comparisons with male performances - even yours. They don't apply.
think first wrote:
Innocent until proven guilty, my friend.
Bolt was most likely doped too, but here we are.
Better shoes, that new pacing tech and you might get a talented clean runner achieve what doped runners did in the past.
Semenya is a great example as she has a broad spectrum to refer to. Not to mention that she was sandbagging that 800m...
Armstronglivs wrote:
The women running it aren't embarrassed by it.
You should be embarrassed however by keeping referring to Semenya, who as a DS athlete is a biological male and no longer competing in the event because she won't relinquish the advantage she has of male levels of testosterone.
I dont regard any of the present wr's in track as clean and those that have stood for years- like Flojo's, the 400m record and Kratochvilova's are, in my view, absolutely not. Clean athletes cannot set wr's in a doped sport.
Did you not read what I said about Semenya? A runner with testes and male levels of testosterone is not a valid comparison for women runners.
Armstronglivs wrote:
I will stick my neck out and suggest she could run 49-high for the 400 and 1.55 for the 800 at her eventual peak, which could be any time in the next 3 or 4 years. It depends on whether she is physically mature now and from appearances, with her height (5'10") and build, I think she is, so I doubt she will get much faster.
You can only guess her peak once a full year passes with no improvement. As for now, she has been improving each year.
She could run 1:56 today in a right race with Ajee.
I definitely see an 1:56 in this young lady and maybe an 1:55. She is a phenomenal athlete!
think first wrote:
Why not?
Considering we take 400m AND 1500m performances into equation.
What is about 800m that makes women with great 400m speed and good 1500m stamina perform worse than men with the same attributes in the 800m?
Armstronglivs wrote:
You can't keep making comparisons with male performances - even yours. They don't apply.
Men and women do not have the same physiology. The differences are demonstrable in every sport. Men have greater muscle and bone density and higher aerobic capacity. Male testosterone levels are a serious magnitude greater than a woman's. A woman runner of the same height and weight as a male would typically have no chance against the male. Athing Mu is bigger than Coe. She is 1.57 to his 1.41 - utterly different universes.
2017 | 15 | 2:07.18/4:33.04
2018 | 16 | 2:04.51/52.45/23.63
2019 | 17 | 2:01.17
2020 | 18 | n/a
---- College ----
2021 | 19 | 1:57.73/50.52/4:16.06 | Tokyo OLY | 800 contender, 4x4 pool
---- Pro ----
2022 | 20 | 1:56.8/50 | Eugene WC | 800 contender, 4x4 pool
2023 | 21 | 1:56.5/49high | Budapest WC | 800 contender, 4x4
2024 | 22 | 1:56/49high | Paris OLY | 800 strong contender, 4x4
2025 | 23 | 1:55high/49mid | ( maybe Nairobi?) WCs | 800 favorite, 4x4
2026 | 24 | 4:03-6/22.9-23.5 | off-year to work on speed and strength, enters 200/1500 at USA
2027 | 25 | 1:55mid/49mid | TBD WCs | 800 favorite, 4x4, 400 strong contender
2028 | 26 | 1:55/49 | LA OLY | 800 favorite, 4x4, 400 strong contender
SayWhat29 wrote:
I definitely see an 1:56 in this young lady and maybe an 1:55. She is a phenomenal athlete!
She is a great athlete. This is a thread that will be interesting to look back on in 5 years time.