Reposting your old posts?! I know you love to listen to yourself, but this is crazy conceit. Does your narcissism know no bounds?
Reposting your old posts?! I know you love to listen to yourself, but this is crazy conceit. Does your narcissism know no bounds?
Sally V wrote:
Sticking with that TLT / SPY misdirection? You're like a broken record. That was exposed pages ago. Give it up, troll.
You make this thread unbearable. Never a single contribution. Only vitriol and asinine insults.
Look in the mirror, loser.
Agip, Wrong. GAAP is not just one way to do accounting. Its the agreed upon STANDARD way to do accounting. That is a huge distinction. Its how you compare performance year over year and between companies. Again, pro forma numbers are appropriate to tell a story behind the gaap numbers of an individual. That is totally fine. Its a way to break down and analyze gaap. But its a whole other thing if the media is just making up on their own what they say are earnings. "non gaap" S&P 500 PE ratios is just dumb. You shouldn't pay any attention to it.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Econ 101,
OK, but non-GAAP is the Vegas number and GAAP is what X does.
Igy
it's not nearly that simple, igy eh?
GAAP is one way to do accounting,. That's it. It works mainly for oldline industrial companies. It isn't a law handed down by God to CFOs everywhere.
Non GAAP accounting can give a MORE clear view into many biznesses.
ryan foreman wrote:
Agip,
Wrong. GAAP is not just one way to do accounting. Its the agreed upon STANDARD way to do accounting. That is a huge distinction. Its how you compare performance year over year and between companies.
Again, pro forma numbers are appropriate to tell a story behind the gaap numbers of an individual. That is totally fine. Its a way to break down and analyze gaap.
But its a whole other thing if the media is just making up on their own what they say are earnings. "non gaap" S&P 500 PE ratios is just dumb. You shouldn't pay any attention to it.
agip wrote:it's not nearly that simple, igy eh?
GAAP is one way to do accounting,. That's it. It works mainly for oldline industrial companies. It isn't a law handed down by God to CFOs everywhere.
Non GAAP accounting can give a MORE clear view into many biznesses.
There is nothing wrong with what agip wrote. And I mostly agree with what Ryan wrote with an exception being his comment about non-GAAP PE ratios. Who's talking about those? Perhaps you meant EPS instead.
Hugh, Ryan, and agip,
You can get a sense of what is going on when you look at the media reporting and Wall Street reporting this earnings season. As of Friday, August 19th, 95% of S&P 500 companies have reported for Q2 2016. The number that gets highlighted is the 70% EPS beat, which is non-GAAP, pro-forma or operating. The number that is not reported is the GAAP or as reported, which came in at a 37% EPS beat. Furthermore, few report how the hurdle rate was continually lowered into the quarter. If you doubt me just look at the reporting on Friday's data, then refer to the actual S&P report by Howard Silverblatt.
Igy
There is value in pointing out the differences between GAAP and non-GAAP, but talking about "beats" or "lowered hurdles" is meaningless. Why should anyone care how close some Wall Street hack came to guessing what the EPS would be? It's just noise.
Aug. 19
Earnings Scorecard: With 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings to date for Q2 2016, 71% have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 54% have reported sales above the mean estimate.
Like I said:
The number that gets highlighted is the 70% EPS beat, which is non-GAAP, pro-forma or operating. The number that is not reported is the GAAP or as reported, which came in at a 37% EPS beat. Furthermore, few report how the hurdle rate was continually lowered into the quarter.
Like I said:
The hurdle rate is meaningless.
...so is the non-GAAP number....
...not to serious investors.
U.S. stock futures on Monday signaled a muted open, as analysts said the week looks set to be quiet until a closely watched speech by Federal Reserve chief Janet Yellen at the central bank's summer retreat.
S&P 500 futures rose by 1.55 points, or less than 0.1%, to 2,183.25, as a drop in oil prices limited gains.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures inched up by 12 points to 18,552, while Nasdaq-100 futures tacked on 6.75 points to 4,813.75.
A Friday morning speech by Fed chief Janet Yellen is expected to serve as this week's main event. She may use her remarks in Jackson Hole, Wyo., to indicate the central bank is ready to raise interest rates as soon as next month.
"The markets currently have March priced in for the next rate hike and if Yellen is seriously determined to move earlier, she must take advantage of Friday's opportunity to drive that message home," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note.
"The rest of the week is expected to be rather quiet," Erlam added.
On Sunday, the Fed's No. 2 official, Stanley Fischer, suggested he is open to further interest rate hikes this year, helping the dollar gain on Monday.
There are no top-tier U.S. economic releases or earnings reports expected on Monday.
Last week, the S&P 500 and Dow scored record closes early in the week, then finished the week little changed and just below their record-setting levels.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Joe Beets wrote:The whole TINA thing is nonsense. Stock mutual funds have been hemorrhaging tens of billions of dollars in recent weeks. Again, you vastly underestimate the intelligence of the investor.
Joe,
Turns out your analysis is incomplete and probably in fact wrong.
So sorry.
Igy
UPDATE: 'Bonds are the new stocks' as EM buying craze on record pace
Investors seem to have an insatiable appetite for fixed income--and particularly emerging-market debt. Bond funds from developing regions attracted more cash than ever this summer.
Roughly $2 billion has poured into EM debt funds over the last week, taking the inflow streak to seven straight weeks, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch's weekly "Flow Show" report out on Friday. More than $20 billion has been invested in emerging-market bonds during those weeks, the largest amount ever.
"Bonds are the new stocks," the BofA strategists said in the reports. "Another week of strong inflow to IG, HY, EM debt...reiterate there is no point shorting stocks when these three assets classes are so well bid," they added.
The craze for EM fixed income comes as increasingly more bonds globally are trading with negative yield, prompting yield-hungry investors to go hunting for returns elsewhere. With bonds in some developing countries offering yields around 6%, it easily becomes more attractive than Germany's and Japan's negative interest rates. Some shorter-dated U.K. government bonds also briefly dipped below zero, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields offer only around 1.55%.
Overall, bond funds on a global scale have attracted $138 billion in 2016 this year, making them hugely popular compared with rival asset classes. Investors have particularly shunned most equities, with almost $128 billion flowing out since the start of 2016.
"The latest yield-seeking euphoria has flattered speculators into believing that imprudence is merely sound investing. As valuations rise, prospective future returns fall, and our 12-year projection for S&P 500 nominal total returns has now dropped to just 1.4% annually. But to reward risk-taking artificially, and for too long, is to amplify the amount of systemic risk that is created. Along with the steepest equity valuations in U.S. history outside of 1929 and 2000 (on measures that are actually reliably correlated with subsequent market returns), private and public debt burdens have reached the most extreme levels in history. My impression is that the market is heaving its last gasp in the extended two-year top formation of the third financial bubble since 2000."
John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 8/22/2016
"If a person can be too smart for his own good, as the aphorism goes, portfolio manager John Hussman may be feeling the agony of high intelligence right about now....Hussman’s persistently poor performance is an object lesson in the futility of trying to outsmart the market, a temptation to which some very smart people succumb either through security selection or market timing."
From "Hussman's Returns, Like His Forecasts, Are Dismal"
Research Magazine
Yes it's all on the fed this week. If and when constant conjecture.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
For Gil:
https://mobile.twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/764190850741972992
Rudy Haverstein has been dead for decades. You are citing a fake Twitter account.
topcat wrote:
Yes it's all on the fed this week. If and when constant conjecture.
"The outcome of years of yield-seeking speculation induced by central banks is that investors across the globe have now locked in zero prospective total returns in virtually in every asset class for the coming decade. In an environment of perfect economic stability, perhaps these zero returns might come as they have in the U.S. stock market since about mid-2014, with meager overall progress and moderate intermediate-term volatility, but without an intervening bear market collapse. The broad NYSE Composite remains below the level it set in June 2014, and the S&P 500 is scarcely 2% above its May 2015 high."
John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 8/15/2016