NW should get 3 individual at-larges IMHO. What do you guys think?
It's too early to tell, although I suspect SW will get 2, California will get one, and the Midwest will get one.
Rocky really needs to just autoqualify because of their very bad schedule. I don't think getting third is a great argument because it entirely relied on Crater having one of the top guys in the country finish in the 200's. The biggest feather in their cap is something that you can point to and say is a total fluke.
The NW schools are very insulated and are only racing schools that they see all the time, and when they don't, it's because other teams have traveled to them. Crater and CDA are the only schools that deserve credit because they at least went out of region. The NW shouldn't be rewarded with at-larges that are at best judgement calls when they never travel out of region to race.
Owen Powell won Woodbridge with a 13:30, but only got 3rd at NXR Northwest.
Maximus Cervi-Skinner, 3rd at Woodbridge in 13:37, only got 9th at NXR Northwest.
7 guys went under 15 minutes. Historically speaking, the winner usually runs 14:5x, then second is 15:0x, and then the next 10 or so guys will be around 15:10-15:25.
If they had taken things out a little hotter up front, they could have easily had the winner run something like 14:40's low, which is ridiculous on this course.
Team wise, I do still think that the region should get one at-large, and although it won't happen, I do think that Crater should deserve a spot as well.
The claim has been made that Rocky Mountain only got 3rd because Crater blew up, but honestly that's a flaw with Crater in general. They've been really good since NXR came back in 2022, and each year they get out very hard and fade over the last kilometers. It's fair to say that it was worse this year with Tostenson sick/injured, but I think the blame lays more with Crater than it appears at a glance. If Crater hadn't gotten out quite as aggressively, or had one or two athletes move up just a couple of spots, they would have gotten third. That being said, Crater is an incredible team, and I really hope both they and Rocky get to go to NXN, because on a great day, I could see Crater cracking the top 8.
NW should get 3 individual at-larges IMHO. What do you guys think?
It's too early to tell, although I suspect SW will get 2, California will get one, and the Midwest will get one.
Rocky really needs to just autoqualify because of their very bad schedule. I don't think getting third is a great argument because it entirely relied on Crater having one of the top guys in the country finish in the 200's. The biggest feather in their cap is something that you can point to and say is a total fluke.
The NW schools are very insulated and are only racing schools that they see all the time, and when they don't, it's because other teams have traveled to them. Crater and CDA are the only schools that deserve credit because they at least went out of region. The NW shouldn't be rewarded with at-larges that are at best judgement calls when they never travel out of region to race.
CA #1 - Beckman never traveled to the Northwest. It's silly to hold Rocky Mountain to that standard when top California team didn't go northwest to race. The only advantage rocky mountain has is that it's home course and a little of altitude
It's too early to tell, although I suspect SW will get 2, California will get one, and the Midwest will get one.
Rocky really needs to just autoqualify because of their very bad schedule. I don't think getting third is a great argument because it entirely relied on Crater having one of the top guys in the country finish in the 200's. The biggest feather in their cap is something that you can point to and say is a total fluke.
The NW schools are very insulated and are only racing schools that they see all the time, and when they don't, it's because other teams have traveled to them. Crater and CDA are the only schools that deserve credit because they at least went out of region. The NW shouldn't be rewarded with at-larges that are at best judgement calls when they never travel out of region to race.
CA #1 - Beckman never traveled to the Northwest. It's silly to hold Rocky Mountain to that standard when top California team didn't go northwest to race. The only advantage rocky mountain has is that it's home course and a little of altitude
I personally am on the side of rocky being in a position for an at-large at this moment. We still have to see what Midwest (tomorrow), South and California(maybe but unlikely) can do. 1) It would make up for when they didn't get an at-large in 2022 2) If they don't get an at-large, we won't stop hearing about it on this board
Edit: to clarify southwest will likely be getting 2 at-larges. I am talking about the other 2 team at-larges
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
It's too early to tell, although I suspect SW will get 2, California will get one, and the Midwest will get one.
Rocky really needs to just autoqualify because of their very bad schedule. I don't think getting third is a great argument because it entirely relied on Crater having one of the top guys in the country finish in the 200's. The biggest feather in their cap is something that you can point to and say is a total fluke.
The NW schools are very insulated and are only racing schools that they see all the time, and when they don't, it's because other teams have traveled to them. Crater and CDA are the only schools that deserve credit because they at least went out of region. The NW shouldn't be rewarded with at-larges that are at best judgement calls when they never travel out of region to race.
CA #1 - Beckman never traveled to the Northwest. It's silly to hold Rocky Mountain to that standard when top California team didn't go northwest to race. The only advantage rocky mountain has is that it's home course and a little of altitude
If Beckman doesn't qualify, then sure, they should have traveled to a different area or done something to bolster their resume. But I don't think Beckman has come onto this board and cried about getting left out while Rocky definitely has.
BTW, Beckman has done something to give the selection committee a reason to select them while Rocky hasn't because they have raced at one major invitational. Rocky Mountain ran at one major invitational, and lost to Herriman and Taylorsville by a ton. If Taylorsville is only 4th or 5th at NXR SW, why should Rocky get an at-large over them? Rocky Mountain has a hole in their resume, Beckman doesn't nearly have that same issue.
Has a team that finished 4th in a region ever been picked above the 3rd-place team in a region for a at-large bid? Crater belongs at NXN if/when Tostenson is firing on all cylinders.
Has a team that finished 4th in a region ever been picked above the 3rd-place team in a region for a at-large bid? Crater belongs at NXN if/when Tostenson is firing on all cylinders.
I think there’s a rule where, in order to pick a 4th place team, they are required to pick a 3rd place team from the same region
I'm attached to the Rocky program to some degree. A couple of points that I think should be made:
1. Crater is an incredible team. They deserve to go to NXN. That being said, earlier on the thread, someone said that Tostenson having a horrible performance should not be counted against them, and while that seems fair, I'm suprised that nobody has mentioned that Cody Lucas (Rocky #1) had a pretty abysmal day as well. Head to head, he's beaten Jace Barton (#2 at NXR NW), Jack Sheesley (14th at NXR NW), and Wyatt Carr (17th at NXR NW). If he had run at his fullest, he really could have been anywhere from 20th to as high as 6th or 7th. If we are giving Crater the benefit of the doubt when evaluating the team for a theoretical max strength, then we must hold other teams to the same standard, which would include putting Cody Lucas higher. This doesn't necessarily mean that Crater still isn't the better team, but we can't just apply a hypothetical to one team.
2. I don't think any of the athletes or the coaching staff at Rocky would want an at-large this year to make up for the "snuffed" one in 2022. We could have been top two, but ended up getting third. We believe we wouldn't be a waste of an at-large if we got one, and would be able to swing big at NXN, but we understand that ultimately because we didn't get top 2, we are not entitled to an at-large, especially in "reparations" for 2022.
I'm attached to the Rocky program to some degree. A couple of points that I think should be made:
1. Crater is an incredible team. They deserve to go to NXN. That being said, earlier on the thread, someone said that Tostenson having a horrible performance should not be counted against them, and while that seems fair, I'm suprised that nobody has mentioned that Cody Lucas (Rocky #1) had a pretty abysmal day as well. Head to head, he's beaten Jace Barton (#2 at NXR NW), Jack Sheesley (14th at NXR NW), and Wyatt Carr (17th at NXR NW). If he had run at his fullest, he really could have been anywhere from 20th to as high as 6th or 7th. If we are giving Crater the benefit of the doubt when evaluating the team for a theoretical max strength, then we must hold other teams to the same standard, which would include putting Cody Lucas higher. This doesn't necessarily mean that Crater still isn't the better team, but we can't just apply a hypothetical to one team.
2. I don't think any of the athletes or the coaching staff at Rocky would want an at-large this year to make up for the "snuffed" one in 2022. We could have been top two, but ended up getting third. We believe we wouldn't be a waste of an at-large if we got one, and would be able to swing big at NXN, but we understand that ultimately because we didn't get top 2, we are not entitled to an at-large, especially in "reparations" for 2022.
The degrees of bad days between Cody Lucas and Tostenson are not even close to the same. If Cody Lucas has a great day, Rocky scores 10 points less. If he runs his lifetime best on this course, he scores 9 instead of 14. Rocky is still solidly 3rd where Crater would have been 2nd if Tostenson has a normal day.
Maybe I'm mistaken , but isn't today's meet the qualifying race for NXN? Crater's team didn't get an auto, this they didn't make it. Pretty hard to pick an at large 4th place team over a team that just beat you in a qualifying race head to head. Yes, someone unfortunately had a very bad race at the wrong time. But that's why they call it a race.
Maybe I'm mistaken , but isn't today's meet the qualifying race for NXN? Crater's team didn't get an auto, this they didn't make it. Pretty hard to pick an at large 4th place team over a team that just beat you in a qualifying race head to head. Yes, someone unfortunately had a very bad race at the wrong time. But that's why they call it a race.
I don't think that's the point of the original comment.
The comment was that if Crater got third they would have gotten an at large because of their resume. Rocky doesn't have much of one, so it makes it much less likely that Rocky would get one despite being third, and especially because the selection committee could rightly point towards Josiah Tostenson cratering as the only reason that Rocky was even third.
I don't think Rocky will get picked, and even though the selection committee doesn't make it known why, I think the reasons will be:
1. Their most impressive win over a team that was at full strength was Great Oak, or maybe Helena or Bozeman at NXR. It's hard to say you have a case when one of your best arguments is a team who's biggest accomplishment is either being 2nd at the rated race at Woodbridge or 5th/6th at NXR NW, or that you beat a team by 2 points that had a 65 point swing on one guy. I don't think Great Oak will do great next week, and won't be in contention in the merge, so that only hurts their case.
2. They have the absolute worst schedule out of any team that is in contention to get an at large. Seriously. Go through every contender in a couple of weeks and look at who they have raced and how they have placed. Rocky will have by far the worst record. I know their coach says that he doesn't want to travel only part of the team, but Salt Lake is not that far from Boise and only an hour further than a travel trip they take every year anyways.
3. They have run at two races with large fields, and while their boys didn't look bad today, they definitely look worse in a big field, and at the end of the day, the selection committee is going to be concerned about putting the best race together. A team that runs great in small meets but struggles just enough in big ones doesn't fulfill that mandate.
Do I think that Rocky would be a wasted at large? Absolutely not. I think they would hold their own just fine. Do I think that they have done anything to prove that they deserve that spot? No.
Once again, NW teams are going to see at larges that they could get go to other regions that are actually bothering to travel out of region to race big meets or have a bunch that they can race at, like California. The Portland schools will grab at large berths because they actually race big fields, but teams from states like Idaho need to go seek out that competition.
At the end of the day, the SW is only going to get two at large berths and someone between AF, Herriman, Taylorsville, Hamilton, Niwot, Riverton, Valor Christian, etc. will be upset because they will undoubtedly have a better case to go than many of the others. I do think that Jesuit would have been in a precarious spot if Tostenson had not fallen apart and Crater got 2nd to CDA with Jesuit 3rd, FWIW. Same issue as Rocky. Who have they actually beat?
on a side note. speed ratings show that ny has two fast individual runners that score 191. Neither are seniors. Maybe they will make a come back for new york this year or next year?
NXR Midwest is tomorrow. Midwest has some great teams. Northwest and Midwest have really both gotten really good this year.
What CBA did yesterday at NJ MOC is almost to the absurd. 16 points vs the scoring field. 15:42 avg when the avg coming into the year was 15:52. Barrett ran about 15 seconds slower than I expected as he went out a bit too quick. So there might have been another 3 secs or a 15:39 avg out there. It was insane. They can pack up and run easier at a tough Bowdoin layout and Q no matter what. And then get two weeks off until NXN final. They may not win, there are some really good teams out there, but this is by far the best CBA version in their history.
Maybe I'm mistaken , but isn't today's meet the qualifying race for NXN? Crater's team didn't get an auto, this they didn't make it. Pretty hard to pick an at large 4th place team over a team that just beat you in a qualifying race head to head. Yes, someone unfortunately had a very bad race at the wrong time. But that's why they call it a race.
I don't think that's the point of the original comment.
The comment was that if Crater got third they would have gotten an at large because of their resume. Rocky doesn't have much of one, so it makes it much less likely that Rocky would get one despite being third, and especially because the selection committee could rightly point towards Josiah Tostenson cratering as the only reason that Rocky was even third.
I don't think Rocky will get picked, and even though the selection committee doesn't make it known why, I think the reasons will be:
1. Their most impressive win over a team that was at full strength was Great Oak, or maybe Helena or Bozeman at NXR. It's hard to say you have a case when one of your best arguments is a team who's biggest accomplishment is either being 2nd at the rated race at Woodbridge or 5th/6th at NXR NW, or that you beat a team by 2 points that had a 65 point swing on one guy. I don't think Great Oak will do great next week, and won't be in contention in the merge, so that only hurts their case.
2. They have the absolute worst schedule out of any team that is in contention to get an at large. Seriously. Go through every contender in a couple of weeks and look at who they have raced and how they have placed. Rocky will have by far the worst record. I know their coach says that he doesn't want to travel only part of the team, but Salt Lake is not that far from Boise and only an hour further than a travel trip they take every year anyways.
3. They have run at two races with large fields, and while their boys didn't look bad today, they definitely look worse in a big field, and at the end of the day, the selection committee is going to be concerned about putting the best race together. A team that runs great in small meets but struggles just enough in big ones doesn't fulfill that mandate.
Do I think that Rocky would be a wasted at large? Absolutely not. I think they would hold their own just fine. Do I think that they have done anything to prove that they deserve that spot? No.
Once again, NW teams are going to see at larges that they could get go to other regions that are actually bothering to travel out of region to race big meets or have a bunch that they can race at, like California. The Portland schools will grab at large berths because they actually race big fields, but teams from states like Idaho need to go seek out that competition.
At the end of the day, the SW is only going to get two at large berths and someone between AF, Herriman, Taylorsville, Hamilton, Niwot, Riverton, Valor Christian, etc. will be upset because they will undoubtedly have a better case to go than many of the others. I do think that Jesuit would have been in a precarious spot if Tostenson had not fallen apart and Crater got 2nd to CDA with Jesuit 3rd, FWIW. Same issue as Rocky. Who have they actually beat?
If Taylorsville gets 4th at NXR SW, maybe they get a look. But if Taylorsville isn’t in serious contention for the last spot there, I don’t think Rocky has chance, given how badly Taylorsville beat Rocky at Firman. But if I had to seed the SW, I’d have Taylorsville 8th, behind Herriman, Niwot, AF, Hamilton, Riverton, Rio Rancho, and Valor. It’s just a different level down there.
I don't think that's the point of the original comment.
The comment was that if Crater got third they would have gotten an at large because of their resume. Rocky doesn't have much of one, so it makes it much less likely that Rocky would get one despite being third, and especially because the selection committee could rightly point towards Josiah Tostenson cratering as the only reason that Rocky was even third.
I don't think Rocky will get picked, and even though the selection committee doesn't make it known why, I think the reasons will be:
1. Their most impressive win over a team that was at full strength was Great Oak, or maybe Helena or Bozeman at NXR. It's hard to say you have a case when one of your best arguments is a team who's biggest accomplishment is either being 2nd at the rated race at Woodbridge or 5th/6th at NXR NW, or that you beat a team by 2 points that had a 65 point swing on one guy. I don't think Great Oak will do great next week, and won't be in contention in the merge, so that only hurts their case.
2. They have the absolute worst schedule out of any team that is in contention to get an at large. Seriously. Go through every contender in a couple of weeks and look at who they have raced and how they have placed. Rocky will have by far the worst record. I know their coach says that he doesn't want to travel only part of the team, but Salt Lake is not that far from Boise and only an hour further than a travel trip they take every year anyways.
3. They have run at two races with large fields, and while their boys didn't look bad today, they definitely look worse in a big field, and at the end of the day, the selection committee is going to be concerned about putting the best race together. A team that runs great in small meets but struggles just enough in big ones doesn't fulfill that mandate.
Do I think that Rocky would be a wasted at large? Absolutely not. I think they would hold their own just fine. Do I think that they have done anything to prove that they deserve that spot? No.
Once again, NW teams are going to see at larges that they could get go to other regions that are actually bothering to travel out of region to race big meets or have a bunch that they can race at, like California. The Portland schools will grab at large berths because they actually race big fields, but teams from states like Idaho need to go seek out that competition.
At the end of the day, the SW is only going to get two at large berths and someone between AF, Herriman, Taylorsville, Hamilton, Niwot, Riverton, Valor Christian, etc. will be upset because they will undoubtedly have a better case to go than many of the others. I do think that Jesuit would have been in a precarious spot if Tostenson had not fallen apart and Crater got 2nd to CDA with Jesuit 3rd, FWIW. Same issue as Rocky. Who have they actually beat?
If Taylorsville gets 4th at NXR SW, maybe they get a look. But if Taylorsville isn’t in serious contention for the last spot there, I don’t think Rocky has chance, given how badly Taylorsville beat Rocky at Firman. But if I had to seed the SW, I’d have Taylorsville 8th, behind Herriman, Niwot, AF, Hamilton, Riverton, Rio Rancho, and Valor. It’s just a different level down there.
Rocky's entire resume hinges on what Great Oak and Taylorsville do the rest of the season. Davis was only 5th at the state meet, so those are the best results on their schedule that don't have a massive asterisk.
The NW really needs to travel. Mercer Island, Crater, and CDA went out of region, but two of those were before the committee weights things too heavily. Only Crater went out of region. People rag on California for how hard their courses are but we don't see teams in Portland or Seattle going down mid to late season. We don't see teams from Boise going doing to Utah. It's really a region wide thing, and there is less of an issue for the SW since it's so deep.