Official LRC President Donald J Trump Thread

pop_pop!_v2.2.1 wrote:

eric a blair wrote:

betting odds have the odds at the repubs keeping the house of delegates at around 6:1

so the dems probably won't get it

Jerrymandering for the win!

eric a blair wrote:

but yeah that was completely unexpected and probably the best indication that the house will flip next year.

americans really really really don't like their president.

But, there is a very dedicated fascist/racist The American radicalization that has been building for decades is really just coming on. Clowns like Ryan and Pence are the new normal.

Best case scenario, a narrow majority with a President that won't cooperate. Basically the inverse of Obama's

years.

?????????❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️❗️

eric a blair wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

As of now, Dems are winning. With 4 races too close to call, the house of delegates looks like this:

Democrats: 49

Republicans: 47

betting odds have the odds at the repubs keeping the house of delegates at around 6:1

so the dems probably won't get it

but yeah that was completely unexpected and probably the best indication that the house will flip next year.

americans really really really don't like their president.

Bruhs, let's not get ahead of ourselves simply because the Dems one a couple of elections in states that could be considered either blue or purple. Yes, bruhs, I understand the somewhat historical nature of the Dems win in the VA statehouse but still, bruhs, let's not repeat our premature celebration of Nov. 2016.

Here is a dose of reality Bruhs....

Trump's most recent job approval rating among GOP voters is 83%!!!! So, nationally Bruhs, nothing has changed. It is highly unlikely that congressional GOP members will turn on Trump in large numbers until he's polling in the 60s with GOP voters. There is a long way to go between here and there.

It is extremely unlikely that the Dems will pick up a majority in either chamber of congress in 2018. Sure bruhs, they may pick up a seat here or there but what is more likely is that incumbent GOP candidates lose to insurgent "Trump Republican" (aka mouthbreathing idiots) candidates in 2018. This wil simply mean things will become even more polarized in Congress and even less will get done.

I hate to flagpole it Bruhs, but I give the Dems 0% chance of flipping congress in 2018.

I agree that Democrats winning the governor race in two states that Hillary beat Trump in is not a huge deal.

It would have been a much bigger deal if a Republican won either one of those.

And I see that Trump has a high approval rating among Republicans.

But turnout is what drives elections.

Most Republicans might check "approve" when polled about Trump but that doesn't mean they will be excited to take time off of work next year to vote. Especially if Obamacare repeal and tax reform both fail while they are in control.

On the other side, Democrats are energized and will come out to vote. And that's how the House will flip.

So look at the Virginia governor elections

In 2009 a Republican won with 1,163,000 votes and the Democrat received 819,000 votes.

On Tuesday the Republican got 1,173,000 votes while the Democrat won with 1,405,000 votes.

The Dems picked up almost 600,000 more votes to near zero more votes for the Republicans.

That's why the Republican's game is always voter suppression.

They want to energize their base and hope Democrats aren't excited to vote or make it difficult to vote.

But reacting to Trump's nonsense has made it exciting for Democrats to vote.

I've been wondering about this 80% Republican approval rating...it doesn't seem to make sense.

And it may not.

This story suggests that the reason trump has maintained a high approval rating among republicans is...wait for it...the anti-trumpers have left the party or stopped telling pollsters they are republicans.

So the denominator has shrunk. Which will of course hurt Trump and the Republicans in elections.

So no, not 0% chance of flipping the House in 2018

Only GOP voters matter, bruh wrote:

It is extremely unlikely that the Dems will pick up a majority in either chamber of congress in 2018. Sure bruhs, they may pick up a seat here or there but what is more likely is that incumbent GOP candidates lose to insurgent "Trump Republican" (aka mouthbreathing idiots) candidates in 2018. This wil simply mean things will become even more polarized in Congress and even less will get done.

I hate to flagpole it Bruhs, but I give the Dems 0% chance of flipping congress in 2018.

You are not thinking about how the Senate is run. If the Senate goes majority Democrat, then many roles change, what gets legislated changes, committee leaders change. Like the problem the Republicans have right now though, it doesn't mean they can get anything passed through both Houses. The framers did a pretty good job building power checks into the institutions.

I seriously doubt they can shift the House because of the years of State policies designed to discourage voters and gerrymandering. Even if they did, just like Obama's congress, lots of time wasted on bills the President will never sign and they cannot possibly find a 2/3 majority to overrule the President.

On top of that, "not Trump" is not a platform to get swing voters in 2020. Again, this is a party, just like moderate Republicans, that have enacted decades of eliminating labor and industrial policy designed to create and support a middle class. Trump has tapped into that vein, and is obviously exploiting it. I'm not sure why a Trump supporter can't see that.

FWIW betting odds right now are 50/50 on who will control the house after midterms.

eric a blair wrote:

FWIW betting odds right now are 50/50 on who will control the house after midterms.

Virginia and New Jersey are east coast democrat states. They do not represent the Midwest and south which will continue to reject democrat stupidity.

WrongDemocrat wrote:

eric a blair wrote:

FWIW betting odds right now are 50/50 on who will control the house after midterms.

Virginia and New Jersey are east coast democrat states. They do not represent the Midwest and south which will continue to reject democrat stupidity.

actually VA is a lot like america. Blue cities, red rural.

And if VA is so democratic, then why is the H of delegates there 66-34 controlled by Repubs?

eric a blair wrote:

WrongDemocrat wrote:

Virginia and New Jersey are east coast democrat states. They do not represent the Midwest and south which will continue to reject democrat stupidity.

actually VA is a lot like america. Blue cities, red rural.

And if VA is so democratic, then why is the H of delegates there 66-34 controlled by Repubs?

Keep on believing the democrat controlled media that depicts Trump voters as overcome with buyers remorse. This is not at all the case.

WrongDemocrat wrote:

eric a blair wrote:

actually VA is a lot like america. Blue cities, red rural.

And if VA is so democratic, then why is the H of delegates there 66-34 controlled by Repubs?

Keep on believing the democrat controlled media that depicts Trump voters as overcome with buyers remorse. This is not at all the case.

keep on not answering my questions

eric a blair wrote:

Fat hurts wrote:

As of now, Dems are winning. With 4 races too close to call, the house of delegates looks like this:

Democrats: 49

Republicans: 47

betting odds have the odds at the repubs keeping the house of delegates at around 6:1

so the dems probably won't get it

but yeah that was completely unexpected and probably the best indication that the house will flip next year.

americans really really really don't like their president.

6:1 sounds accurate since the R's lead all four "too close to call" races. However, there will probably be recounts in all four of those races. In one of them, the difference is only 12 votes.

Also have to realize that the 2018 senate elections are slanted heavily in favor of Republicans. If Democrats want to win the senate, they have to win 28 elections (including 2 independents), and if Republicans want to keep the majority, they have to win 6 elections. Some of the seats are virtually guaranteed to go red/blue, but that is still a massive hurdle for Democrats to overcome.

the senate is a longshot sure. But not the house.

As for the dems needing a message..mostly agreed, but here's ol'Ruben saying that maybe 'Vote against Trump' is enough. Truymp is That Unpopular. And there is precedent.

As someone on the thread wrote - when your party is out of power, you get angry and you vote.

Looking at historical data for the House of Reps voting

2000- R 221 seats, 47.0M votes : D 212 seats, 46.6M votes

2002- R 229 seats, 37.3M votes : D 205 seats, 34.0M votes

2004- R 232 seats, 56.0M votes : D 202 seats, 43.0M votes

2006- D 233 seats, 42.3M votes : R 202 seats, 35.9M votes

2008- D 257 seats, 65.2M votes : R 178 seats, 52.2M votes

2010- R 242 seats, 44.8M votes : D 193 seats, 39.0M votes

2012- R 234 seats, 58.2M votes : D 201 seats, 59.6M votes * Democrats got 1.4M more votes but Republicans won 33 more districts

2014- R 247 seats, 40.0M votes : D 188 seats, 35.6M votes

2016- R 241 seats, 63.2M votes : D 194 seats, 61.8M votes

The first obvious thing is that more people come out to vote in presidential election years, then there is a drop off in the off year.

While all of the House of Reps are up for election every two years.

Democrats won the House in 2006 in W Bush's second term by having nearly as much turn out as they did in 2004 (43.0 to 42.3) while the Republicans had a big drop off (56.0 to 35.9).

In Obama's first election the Dems really turned out with 65.2M votes but disappeared two years later with only 39M showing up.

The Republicans took back the House by having less of a drop off.

Dems out voted Repubs in 2012 but the 2010 census Gerrymandering gave more seats to the Rs.

So how can the Democrats win more seats in 2018?

The Republicans are not going to have 63M come out to vote for them again like last year.

If the Democrats get 50M people back to vote, they should win more seats and control the House.

Roy Moore has been outed as a molester of underage girls. Breitbart, which has been the source of so much outrage regarding all things Weinstein, has already decided that these allegations are undoubtedly false and, to the extent they might be true, that there is nothing wrong with adult men hitting on and kissing underage girls as long as they are "romantic" about it.

Roy Moore has also been running away from debating Doug Jones like a complete coward, and his son was just arrested for the 9th time. Did I mention he thinks homosexuality should be illegal? This is the guy Bannon has chosen to spearhead the alt-right's takeover of the GOP establishment. He's a real fvcking mastermind, alright.

The Gallant Pig Man wrote:

Roy Moore has been outed as a molester of underage girls. Breitbart, which has been the source of so much outrage regarding all things Weinstein, has already decided that these allegations are undoubtedly false and, to the extent they might be true, that there is nothing wrong with adult men hitting on and kissing underage girls as long as they are "romantic" about it.

Roy Moore has also been running away from debating Doug Jones like a complete coward, and his son was just arrested for the 9th time. Did I mention he thinks homosexuality should be illegal? This is the guy Bannon has chosen to spearhead the alt-right's takeover of the GOP establishment. He's a real fvcking mastermind, alright.

This is less appalling to the average Alabaman than you might want to believe. I'm not saying it will help him, but I don't think it will turn off many of his voters. It will certainly drive some independents to vote for Jones instead, though.

Count Chocula wrote:

This is less appalling to the average Alabaman than you might want to believe.

Oh, I'm under no illusions. The age of consent is whatever "Daddy" says it is.