Russian captain just rammed a ship carrying jet fuel for the US armed forces. Not great. Russia is bent on small acts of war like this and cutting cables around Europe.
I hope cool heads prevail here.
Under arrest captain of Solong container ship involved in North Sea crash is Russian national, company says On Monday morning, about 13 miles off the coast of East Yorkshire, the Solong sailed into the US-registered tanker Stena Immaculate, which was carrying fuel for the US Navy. Fires broke out on board both vessels, 36 people were rescued and one is missing presumed dead.
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Egg prices are not falling like a rock. And I paid $2.09 down in Houston for gasoline last year. You probably don't even buy eggs. Did you drink bleach for COVID
couple of ironies that brings up for me: 1. The very thing, the one thing I hear from Trumpers when asked how they could support a man with such atrocious personality defects and behavior, all reply "his policies, the economy." Now it appears that his America First ideology is gonna bring down the economy as well as US world stature. 2. The image of Himself that they tout as "Strong, renegade, doesnt play politics like the others!" He has appointed inexperienced people of known shady dealings and backgrounds completely unrelated to the office to which thay now preside over. He works in tandem with abollionaire like himslf whose money/power acquisitiveness is like his, and whose "business sense" has nothing to do with Democracy or the welfare of American people.
The rest of the world has always believed US to be a combination of dumb uneducated people and stability. Now that the stability is lost there isn't much respect left. I fear US will have to spend a lot of tax payers money in the future to gain in back. But I guess some voters only see here and now
To a degree, yes. Unsophisticated, blunt, pugnacious, all those things E. Burdeck (sp) covered in The Ugly American. No more hero stories. And since Hiroshima and Nagasaki something of a scarymonster in waiting. But there used to be an overall belief in Democracy, some (?) trust in our leadership and government. Offices were generally ( with corruption and political shenanigans of course) headed up by somewhat appropriate people. An overarching trend to what we have today--a step into Aristocracy approaching Kingdom--was rising. Now it is here. Democracy is passe. Truth, Justice, nd The American Way --if they ever existed, and I think they were at least ideals if not real--have gone completely. Weve gone from "Ugly America" to "Nightmare America." Unless we change that now.
pre-tariff econ data are worthless. We're in a new world.
Stocks are down again today, bonds are not showing any sign this is good inflation news. Which means investors are saying this data point isn't meaningful.
we need to ignore backward looking data until the effects of the trade war are in the data. Won't show up for a few months.
I am a long time Democrat who voted for Trump. It’s insane that the left hates Elon now despite all he’s done for electric cars / the environment and space exploration. It shows that you have to 100% fall in line with the leftist dogma of the day or they’ll hate you.
The rest of the world has always believed US to be a combination of dumb uneducated people and stability. Now that the stability is lost there isn't much respect left. I fear US will have to spend a lot of tax payers money in the future to gain in back. But I guess some voters only see here and now
To a degree, yes. Unsophisticated, blunt, pugnacious, all those things E. Burdeck (sp) covered in The Ugly American. No more hero stories. And since Hiroshima and Nagasaki something of a scarymonster in waiting. But there used to be an overall belief in Democracy, some (?) trust in our leadership and government. Offices were generally ( with corruption and political shenanigans of course) headed up by somewhat appropriate people. An overarching trend to what we have today--a step into Aristocracy approaching Kingdom--was rising. Now it is here. Democracy is passe. Truth, Justice, nd The American Way --if they ever existed, and I think they were at least ideals if not real--have gone completely. Weve gone from "Ugly America" to "Nightmare America." Unless we change that now.
People like you thinking this is a "nightmare" means we are exactly over the target.
pre-tariff econ data are worthless. We're in a new world.
Stocks are down again today, bonds are not showing any sign this is good inflation news. Which means investors are saying this data point isn't meaningful.
we need to ignore backward looking data until the effects of the trade war are in the data. Won't show up for a few months.
Or...lower inflation in the first full month of the Trump presidensity will make it clearer that a subsequent rise in inflation all happened in the Trump economy and was not a hangover from Biden. That could be another way to go.
I do think a lot of trump worship is because he projects the image of a strongman. There is a core human wish to be dominated by a chief/king/strongman. Which also explains the right wing's fury against transgenders...it messes with their whole view that men should aspire to be like putin and trump.
Also, and I've said this from the start, Trump is one of the greatest salesmen who has ever lived. And there's a sucker born every minute. He's really good at sales and politics is a form of sales.
You have written the bolded part many times on this and other threads.
I do think a lot of trump worship is because he projects the image of a strongman. There is a core human wish to be dominated by a chief/king/strongman. Which also explains the right wing's fury against transgenders...it messes with their whole view that men should aspire to be like putin and trump.
Also, and I've said this from the start, Trump is one of the greatest salesmen who has ever lived. And there's a sucker born every minute. He's really good at sales and politics is a form of sales.
You have written the bolded part many times on this and other threads.
Do you have any evidence of this claim?
Do you, yourself, have such a wish?
I think it's clear that looking at human history that people have a deep need to trade freedom in exchange for security. Look at all the totalitarian governments that last for long long times with no real rebellion. People prefer to follow a strong confident man than to make decisions for themselves. Evidence? North Korea, Cuba, Iran, USSR, China, any of a number of authoritarian nations. Look at how easily men adapt to prison life with its rules and clear hierarchy. Many struggle mightily when those rules/hierarchy are taken away upon their release.
clearly women have always made having a 'protector' be part of the tradeoff they make in marriage. Women usually respond well to strong confident men. They might be susceptible to the appeal of an authoritarian on gender grounds. Men more on wanting a father figure, a boss, a great man to follow.
freedom and democracy are not natural states of man. These things are recent concepts that could fade very quickly if we aren't good enough to protect them.
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Main difference was energy prices. Oil was in the $70-80 range in Feb 2024. Last month, oil was in the $60-70 range. Shelter costs were up, which is not good.
2024 had very strong consumer spending which kept inflation from easing. 2025 could be a continuation of a soft landing on inflation with consumer spending pulling back a bit, but Trump's tariffs could hit hard and cause consumer spending to drop significantly without having any effect on prices or having prices continue to rise. That is stagflation and is the worst economic outcome you can have because you cannot use fiscal policy (interest rates) to get out of it.
Main difference was energy prices. Oil was in the $70-80 range in Feb 2024. Last month, oil was in the $60-70 range. Shelter costs were up, which is not good.
2024 had very strong consumer spending which kept inflation from easing. 2025 could be a continuation of a soft landing on inflation with consumer spending pulling back a bit, but Trump's tariffs could hit hard and cause consumer spending to drop significantly without having any effect on prices or having prices continue to rise. That is stagflation and is the worst economic outcome you can have because you cannot use fiscal policy (interest rates) to get out of it.
Ahem, fiscal policy is not "interest rates." Monetary policy is tinkering with rates and trying to impact the yield curve and expectations over time. Fiscal policy is how we got here in the first place. Government overstimulus for far too long in the wake of Covid is why the Fed's preferred inflation gauge in the PCE never got back to 2%. Furthermore, if you had looked at forward looking prices paid sub-indices in the ISM PMIs, you'd know that expectations for higher prices never subsided. So, per usual, it's extremely shortsighted liberal politics to find culpability with Trump.
HAVING SAID THAT, I completely agree that tariffs and the *uncertainty* created by non-transparent and ever changing trade policy is slowing investment and growth. And, certainly, prolonged and escalating protectionism will encourage inflationary pressure. If that's what this is, rather than just a "reset" that will be softened over time. Frankly, I think Trump wants a recession. I think he knows we should've had one during the last administration with the 3 mo to 3 year curve inverted for a really long time, but reckless and irresponsible government spending (funded largely by short-term treasuries that should've been funded by long term treasuries in an inverted curve environment) artificially averted it.
Better to have a recession now, early in the term, so that we can get past it with easing monetary policy and a baton handoff from the government sector to the private sector with lower taxes to stimulate investment. It's no different than a CA fire. We can either store water for drought-ridden years and prune all of the sparse vegetation to mitigate a very damaging fire, or we can have a very damaging fire. Pruning the forest is a better long term strategy and necessary for the ecosystem. Same thing applies to economics.
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