trunner* wrote:
in his runnerspace interview, he said he will be doing nxn this year.
Good that Steorts is doing the race with the best competition. He ran a 193 speed rating
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Clearly the hill you are wanting to die on & it is for sure not one i want to die on. and that is fine , nothing wrong with that.
what i do know is CM 2021 was the best ever CO boys team and CO has had their fair share of good teams. Niwot beating their course record is impressive. would indicate Niwot is borderline a top 10 all-time team. If that is only good for 3/4 this year then this year is quite impressive.90 -
Corunnerp wrote:
Clearly the hill you are wanting to die on & it is for sure not one i want to die on. and that is fine , nothing wrong with that.
what i do know is CM 2021 was the best ever CO boys team and CO has had their fair share of good teams. Niwot beating their course record is impressive. would indicate Niwot is borderline a top 10 all-time team. If that is only good for 3/4 this year then this year is quite impressive.I think what's impressive, is that even though 3 of their guys had an off day at state, they still broke that record. If they can have a day when they're all on, they will be very hard to beat. What's more astounding is 5 of their strongest runners return, so they could potentially be even better next year.
It will be interesting to see how everyone performs at NXR. Sullivan and Culpepper, who didn't score at state, were their fastest two at Desert Twilight, which is also the NXR course.
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not really talked about much but State College in the NE looked great at their state meet in Pennsylvania. I bet they are NE #2 this year
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landon kimmel the junior in ohio that averaged 195. While speed ratings aren't everything (it's just an estimate, how you do at national meets is what matters), I remember he duked it out with Will Conway in one race as a sophmore. Conway later went on to run a 8:41 3200. Conway may have improved on the track but to try to be competitive with someone like that as a sophmore on the xc course is impressive.
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trunner* wrote:
landon kimmel the junior in ohio that averaged 195. While speed ratings aren't everything (it's just an estimate, how you do at national meets is what matters), I remember he duked it out with Will Conway in one race as a sophmore. Conway later went on to run a 8:41 3200. Conway may have improved on the track but to try to be competitive with someone like that as a sophmore on the xc course is impressive.
hopefully tully speed rates nevada and arizona. they crushed the state record over there.
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NXN boys autoqualifying team predictions
Southwest: Niwot CO / Herriman UT
Northwest: CDA ID / Crater OR (assuming Tostenson will race at NXR)
Midwest: Downers Grove North IL / Plainfield North IL
California (merge): Arnold Beckman CA / Jesuit CA
Northeast: CBA NJ / Ridgefield CT
South: Southlake Carroll TX / Austin Vandegrift TX
Southeast: Belen Jesuit Prep FL / Knoxville Catholic TN
Heartland: Cedar Falls IA / Dowling Catholic IA
New York: Ithaca NY / Saratoga Springs NY
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RunnersCentral individual rankings
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These are from Oct 24. I think Landon Kimmel should be top 25 based on the state meets
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trunner* wrote:
trunner* wrote:
Cheyenne Mountain scored 121 points in the 31 team race at runninglane nationals. Many of those teams were not nearly as competitive as the 22 teams that competed at NXN. It felt like a 105 points Nike National race of 2023. Which would put them at #11 and is not underselling them. They are being oversold here on letsrun while teams like Loudon Valley, Herriman, York, deserve that attention IMHO.
York 99 and Mead 93 can't be included in the list above (not because they aren't top tier) but because they never competed at NXN.
Neither did 2021 NP.
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trunner* wrote:
not really talked about much but State College in the NE looked great at their state meet in Pennsylvania. I bet they are NE #2 this year
They looked great. The second spot at NXR NE is going to be fun to watch. Haddonfield/Ridgefield/and now State College enters the picture.
Based on last year, I thought Ridgefield would be a clear favorite behind CBA but they just didn't put it fully together. Its wide open now.
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Redmau5 wrote:
trunner* wrote:
not really talked about much but State College in the NE looked great at their state meet in Pennsylvania. I bet they are NE #2 this year
They looked great. The second spot at NXR NE is going to be fun to watch. Haddonfield/Ridgefield/and now State College enters the picture.
Based on last year, I thought Ridgefield would be a clear favorite behind CBA but they just didn't put it fully together. Its wide open now.
Yeah Ridgefield’s first race was later in the season than other teams, and their top returner Lovett didn’t race at all this season until a week ago
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Data Nerd wrote:
trunner* wrote:
CDA averages - 15:29 eagle park
Rocky Mountain averages - 15:43 eagle park
Boise averages - 15:54 eagle park
very impressive stuff
was suprised to see max cervi skinner get 3rd with 14:57 behind sheesley 14:57 and nate statlander 14:55. Nat's 14:55 is only 6 seconds away from the course record set by nathan neil 14:49
This is ridiculous.
CDA just averaged the fast time ever on Eagle Island.
Faster than Herriman's 2023 and 2024 Firman times (albeit those were in warmer and dustier conditions so maybe not better teams), faster than NXN champion teams Gig Harbor 2013 and Bozeman 2016, faster than Crater 2022, which won NXR over Jesuit, before the Oregon schools went on to place 4th and 2nd at NXN respectively, with a Newbury Park team in the field.
Rocky just had the best team average they have ever had. Better than 2021, 2022, and 2023, all teams that while didn't make NXN, were definitely top 30, possibly top 20 teams in the nation (2021 squad got like 23rd at Runninglane or something like that).
Max CS is a very legit runner, 3rd at Woodbridge is no joke. He's put up ridiculous XC times at some local courses in the Pacific North West. Someone like that, only placing 3rd at their state meet, regardless of whether he had a good day or not, is unbelieveable. Nate Stadtlander beat Landon Heemeyer head to head at the state meet least year but didn't make NXN as an individual. Surely him and the Boise runner who got 2nd this year, Jack Sheesley, are now in the conversation to make NXN and place well as individuals.
Herriman ran 15:19 average at Bob Firman - 10 seconds faster per runner, with a more balanced team (much stronger in 4 & 5). And this doesn't consider potential differences from ideal conditions at the Idaho State Meet (a quick look at Rocky, Boise, and Highland showed runners were consistently running ~20 seconds faster than they did at Bob Firman)
Props to CDA though, they just aren't in the same tier as Herriman.
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Dyestat individual rankings / regional team rankings
https://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=670241
https://www.dyestat.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=670245
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trunner* wrote:
not really talked about much but State College in the NE looked great at their state meet in Pennsylvania. I bet they are NE #2 this year
I think State College posted the same average speed rating (for top 5) that Ridgefield did at their respective state meets this past weekend, so that's a definite possibility.
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That is crazy wrote:
Knoxville Catholic - 62 (tiebreaker win)
McCallie - 62
Looks like a bad day for Tony Ortega? I haven't followed Knoxville Catholic much this year outside of Adidas Challenge. Is that a one off or has he been inconsistent this year? I was thinking they were a decent favorite for 2nd in the SE before this result
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bumblebee wrote:
That is crazy wrote:
Knoxville Catholic - 62 (tiebreaker win)
McCallie - 62
Looks like a bad day for Tony Ortega? I haven't followed Knoxville Catholic much this year outside of Adidas Challenge. Is that a one off or has he been inconsistent this year? I was thinking they were a decent favorite for 2nd in the SE before this result
Yeah Ortega is usually between #2-4 on the team, but today he didn’t score so an off day.
McCallie’s Jacobs was #3 on the team in the first race this season and was the #3 nonsenior on the team last year. He didn’t score today. Looks like he missed some meets too
Lots of time to get healthy before NXR
I could see either of these teams make NXN
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