Down goes the Dow

There may be very clever intellectual reasons as to why the market has/should/will fall but that cleverness needs to have a deeper level of cleverness applied to it to explain why the first level of cleverness has been wrong. The easiest, dismissive self placating, ego rectifying, world modelling way is to state that everyone else is stupid and you are clever. You see this everywhere. But really, assumed intellectual bias is self disproving. You may think you are clever but if you are wrong by the measures you yourself have set then you are not. Unless of course cleverness is not measured by outcome but by process. In which case we need to reweight the importance of cleverness in making money in markets (now that is a huge topic in it's own right).

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http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=622#ixzz4CVwsFG9u

Kinda Sketchy wrote:

What kind of legit market where prices are supposed to reflect the value of stocks reacts to a future exit of Britain from the EU by tanking?

This market is all speculation. Nothing more.

What does that even mean?

Ummm Man wrote:

Kinda Sketchy wrote:

What kind of legit market where prices are supposed to reflect the value of stocks reacts to a future exit of Britain from the EU by tanking?

This market is all speculation. Nothing more.

What does that even mean?

Seems quite clear and simple.

The market moves due to speculation, not due changes in the companies whose stock is being bough and sold. The fact that Britain will be exiting the EU sometime in the future really doesn't affect the value of those companies...yet the market is reacting to the event quite a bit. Why? All speculation as to how investors think other investors will react. All a big poker game with the big institutions as The House with all the attendant advantages.

Does that help? Unclear to me why you cannot follow that simple idea.

market continues to tank as we head to late afternoon -- I thought it would be stable by now or even heading back up.

"market continues to tank as we head to late afternoon -- I thought it would be stable by now or even heading back up."

There may be very clever intellectual reasons as to why the market has/should/will fall but that cleverness needs to have a deeper level of cleverness applied to it to explain why the first level of cleverness has been wrong. The easiest, dismissive self placating, ego rectifying, world modelling way is to state that everyone else is stupid and you are clever. You see this everywhere. But really, assumed intellectual bias is self disproving. You may think you are clever but if you are wrong by the measures you yourself have set then you are not. Unless of course cleverness is not measured by outcome but by process. In which case we need to reweight the importance of cleverness in making money in markets (now that is a huge topic in it's own right).

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=625#ixzz4CWnerZef

well, sturm and drang but we are only 4% from a 52 week high in the SP500.

vix is high but not in vivisection territory. we probably need that to go higher in order to bottom out. probably some more weak hands need to get shaken out first.

But here's a thought. If the market price is the weighted sum of all expectation, and the cleverest are in a minority by definition, then the minority of cleverest are not those that can deduce the most complex of reasons for future moves but simply those who understand the less clever the best.

You be as intellectually clever as you like but the way to making money in markets is understanding what other people will do before they themselves do. And that has no directional bias.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=622#ixzz4CWqQyxkX

Dow at the same valuation as it was on November 2014 now.

Kinda Sketchy wrote:

Ummm Man wrote:

What does that even mean?

Seems quite clear and simple.

The market moves due to speculation, not due changes in the companies whose stock is being bough and sold. The fact that Britain will be exiting the EU sometime in the future really doesn't affect the value of those companies...yet the market is reacting to the event quite a bit. Why? All speculation as to how investors think other investors will react. All a big poker game with the big institutions as The House with all the attendant advantages.

Does that help? Unclear to me why you cannot follow that simple idea.

market continues to tank as we head to late afternoon -- I thought it would be stable by now or even heading back up.

Meaningless drivel. There is always speculation going on in the market. That is the nature of the beast. You might as well have said that the market is the market. Not exactly insightful.

Maserati wrote:

The only real question is if the US markets will end the day in positive territory.

That would be a big NO.

My God, your stupid.

Kinda Sketchy wrote:

Maserati wrote:

The only real question is if the US markets will end the day in positive territory.

That would be a big NO.

My God, your stupid.

Why would you choose his stupid to be your God? Seems like an odd choice.

The Number Y wrote:

Kinda Sketchy wrote:

That would be a big NO.

My God, your stupid.

Why would you choose his stupid to be your God? Seems like an odd choice.

A fake Kinda Sketchy wrote that ahole comment.. Probably the Ummm man character. He reveals what an ahole he is with his every comment. Dumber than dirt too.

Maserati wrote:

The only real question is if the US markets will end the day in positive territory.

Worst day since 2011 so not a very good call by you.

At least you had the bottle to make a call in writing early in the day instead of making claims of successful predictions after the fact like we usually see here.

Need Help again wrote:

Maserati wrote:

The only real question is if the US markets will end the day in positive territory.

Worst day since 2011 so not a very good call by you.

At least you had the bottle to make a call in writing early in the day instead of making claims of successful predictions after the fact like we usually see here.

You perfectly describe the poster to whom you respond.

You be as intellectually clever as you like but the way to making money in markets is understanding what other people will do before they themselves do. And that has no directional bias.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=622#ixzz4CXqeR8LV

Hi, Igy!

He'll be back before then. It's killing him to be reading this stuff and not offering his "insight". He loves to hear himself talk.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=622#ixzz4CXvrBzAP

Ha ha. You're so predictable.

Didn't Maserati go off in a huff a while back but just couldn't control himself? Doubt that the Ghost has any more control over himself. It is 100% certain that he continues to read this thread.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837&page=622#ixzz4CXyNodWp

Ha ha. You are the epitome of a self-fulfilling prophecy.