Projected nxn finish based on best performance. For guys we have a potential of having barely 2 (griffin and caldwell), and a few others that could potentially finish in the top 50 assuming they perform at their best. There is a big drop off after 6th best California guy runners so it's safe to say these will probably be the guys going with 1 having an off day and not making it. Girls look amazing with a potential of 4 all Americans and Sadie and Riley are close to the #1 girl in the country right now.
Sadie Englehardt- #2 (26th last year) Rylee Blade- #4 (76th last year) Chiara Dailey - #8 Hanne Thomsen - #15 (24th last year) Abigail Errington - #24 Summer Williams - #30 (82nd last year) Millie Bayles - #38
You either forgot about or ignored Noonan and Barker. Holly Barker seems to have had an iron deficiency problem and Noonan also had an issue, but both came back with a strong 1st place at their league meets among top individuals. Noonan barely looked like he was trying and definitely didn't try to kick. If their league meets say anything, they will both be back in national contention in a few weeks.
Chill all I did was copy the speed ratings from Tully Site. It is the most unbiased source to use for running projections.
Projected nxn finish based on best performance. For guys we have a potential of having barely 2 (griffin and caldwell), and a few others that could potentially finish in the top 50 assuming they perform at their best. There is a big drop off after 6th best California guy runners so it's safe to say these will probably be the guys going with 1 having an off day and not making it. Girls look amazing with a potential of 4 all Americans and Sadie and Riley are close to the #1 girl in the country right now.
Sadie Englehardt- #2 (26th last year) Rylee Blade- #4 (76th last year) Chiara Dailey - #8 Hanne Thomsen - #15 (24th last year) Abigail Errington - #24 Summer Williams - #30 (82nd last year) Millie Bayles - #38
Blade and Englehardt's virtual race against each other (on clock only, since they're in different divisions) will be epic!
Chiara Dailey has been injured, so she might not be at her best... but I'd never count her out.
Bayles made quite a leap this year, but can't hang with the other girls on your list. Her teammate Barker looks good again, and pulled away from her league finals.
Braelyn Combe is faster than Bayles, and doesn't get nearly enough hype for how talented she is. Watch for her and Blade to go 1-2 in Div 1.
It's Summer Wilson, not "Williams". You must have subliminally been thinking about Jaelyn Williams who hasn't been healthy all season, but I'd never count her out.
Maya De Brouwer is the other name not on that list, who will be in the mix as well.
The merge is going to be extremely suspenseful and exciting to follow. The girls who race later in the day at State will have an advantage of knowing the times they need to beat to qualify.
CCS Finals on Saturday at the Crystal Springs XC course in Belmont. Over the last few years, CCS XC has risen from an arguably mediocre section over the last two decades, especially on the men's side, into an absolute powerhouse with several nationally-competitive athletes since around 2017. I’ll be putting out division previews for each division whenever I feel like writing, starting with divisions 1 and 2.
D1 B: The D1 boys race is gonna come down to a two-team firestorm between Mountain View and Bellarmine. Mountain View goes in supremely confident after running the 14th-fastest team time in course history at their league finals and looks to avenge missing the state meet by 1 point last year, but perennial power Bellarmine is always competitive. With only one non-Bellarmine/Mountain View athlete being inside the top 35 of the CCS league merge, there is a real chance 14 of the first 15 runners in the D1 race are all from those two schools. The individual race is far too close to call, but defending champion Shrey Chettiar is probably the betting favorite.
D1 G: The girls' side will likely be a two-team battle between Mountain View and Evergreen Valley, but Carlmont and Menlo-Atherton follow closely behind. Historically an extremely competitive division on the girls side, D1 has been reduced greatly by the recent division realignments. Nora Carino of Evergreen Valley is the individual favorite.
D2 B: D2 boys has become significantly more competitive following the aforementioned realignments, and this year should show it. Los Altos comes in as the favorite for the team title following a strong showing at their league meet, but Los Gatos could easily challenge, with Aydon Stefanopolous, who needs no introduction, being the overwhelming favorite for the individual championship. The race for the state meet spots promises to be eventful, with Los Gatos, Branham, Los Altos, St Francis, Piedmont Hills, Lynbrook, Gunn and Leigh Palo Alto all within the top 20 of the 111-team league merge.
D2 G: If you thought the boys side was competitive, the girls race is significantly faster by comparison, especially on the individual side. St Francis, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Palo Alto, and Piedmont Hills all make appearances in the top 10 of the league merge, promising a true battle for the state meet spots. St. Francis comes in as the overwhelming favorite for the team championship following a third-place trophy at the Clovis invitational. Evie Marheineke of Archbishop Mitty is the individual favorite after an 18:00 run at her league championship, but 4:44 miler Kinga Czajkowska will be following close behind, not having been challenged for much of this season after sitting out for an injury. Zanetto of St Francis, Bharadwaj of Palo Alto, and Pickett of St Francis all come in with times under 18:20, and will look to challenge the 18-minute barrier at CCS.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
And Eli l Fitchen Young who was the highest returner from NxN last year and has run very well this year. Seems odd you left him off.
Tbh I just took the fastest speed ratings for California guys without much thought. Fitchen young runs his races in Nor Cal which don't get speed rated that often so I should have kept that into account. Sorry. NXN 19th last year and returning is definitely huge. He will be a factor. If Noonan can come back he should be a factor too.
I think Tully Runner is great. But I would not count California out individually. Most of those individual speed ratings come from state meets and when guys are peaking. Check back after our state meets and I think both our guys and girls will be up there with the best. An example is Jason Parra at this time last year had fallen off a lot of rankings after some “poor” performances but came back and had an excellent postseason and a top 10 finish at NXN. California is fine
Idk if just me but I don't see Zion Ortiz in this speed rated list that Ik of. He won the Mt Sac D3,4,& 5 individual race. Oliver Clippinger Zimmerman (Thousand Oaks) is on that list on got 2nd to Ortiz in the Mt Sac race, which they're using for this speed rated list.
1. Griffin Kushen (Tesoro): 193.4 2. Trey Caldwell (De La Salle): 192.97 (193 to highball) 3. Aydon Stefanopoulos (Los Gatos): 190.53 4. Tyler Daillak (Paso Robles): 190.1 5. Dylan Flores (Glendora): 188.17 6. JR Lesher (Hueneme): 187.63 7. Hunter Hannah (Matilda Torres): 183.87 8. Alijah Murillo (Branham): 183.8 9. Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge): 183.2 10. Jackson Stream (Vacaville): 182.67
Division 3: 1. Miles Cook (SHCP): 187.73 2. Zion Ortiz (Burroughs Ridgecrest): 187 3. Evan Noonan (Dana Hills): 186 4. Oliver Clippinger-Zimmerman (Thousand Oaks): 184.67 5. Liam Miller (South Torrance): 184.23 6. Josiah Bowman (Sage Creek): 182 7. Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills): 181.60 8. Andres Lomeli (Kimball): 179.73 9. Andrew Quast (West Torrance): 178 10. Nate Griffin-Yeh (Las Lomas)? (Explanation: Couldn't find anyone to fill the 10th spot in D3. Given past times and recent performances, Yeh seems to be a solid pick)
Division 4: 1. Broen Holman (Sonora): 192.53 2. Eli Fitchen-Young (Santa Cruz): 187.67 3. Auge Martin (Saint Francis): 187.33 4. Noel Huato (Del Oro): 182 (I am pretty sure Del Oro is D4) 5. Christian Yoder (Oaks Christian): 181.57 6. Max Douglas (Corona Del Mar): 180.67 7. Taye Newman (Jserra): 180.03 8. Cooper McNee (Oaks Christian): 179.5 9. Bradley Arrey (Jserra): 178.17 10. Callum McBride (Albany): 177.5
Division 5: 1. Landon Pretre (Menlo): 190.83 2. Olly O Conner (Viewpoint): 187.33 3. Eyan Turk (Woodcrest Christian): 185.8 4. Ben Bouie (CSUS) 5. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Nueva): 181.67 6. Theo Udelson-Nee (Wildwood): 179 7. Tarik Baker (CSUS) 8. Will Hauser (Menlo): 178.73 9. Henry Hauser (Menlo) 10. Blake Bay (Fresno Christian)
I do feel guys like Noonan and Bouie should be higher. Guys like Baker, H Hauser, and Bay definitely have a shot at making podium as of recent races.
Projected nxn finish based on best performance. For guys we have a potential of having barely 2 (griffin and caldwell), and a few others that could potentially finish in the top 50 assuming they perform at their best. There is a big drop off after 6th best California guy runners so it's safe to say these will probably be the guys going with 1 having an off day and not making it. Girls look amazing with a potential of 4 all Americans and Sadie and Riley are close to the #1 girl in the country right now.
Projected nxn finish based on best performance. For guys we have a potential of having barely 2 (griffin and caldwell), and a few others that could potentially finish in the top 50 assuming they perform at their best. There is a big drop off after 6th best California guy runners so it's safe to say these will probably be the guys going with 1 having an off day and not making it. Girls look amazing with a potential of 4 all Americans and Sadie and Riley are close to the #1 girl in the country right now.
Sadie Englehardt- #2 (26th last year) Rylee Blade- #4 (76th last year) Chiara Dailey - #8 Hanne Thomsen - #15 (24th last year) Abigail Errington - #24 Summer Williams - #30 (82nd last year) Millie Bayles - #38
I think you’re underestimating Aydon Stefanopoulos. He has a 1600m time of 4:08 and remember when Liam Anderson won NXN with a 1600m time that fast? Now, I’m not saying Aydon is going to win NXN because the rest of the country has also gotten faster, but Liam Anderson ran a time of 14:57 at NXN, the same time he finished at the Clovis course where Stefanopoulos just ran 14:52.
You're forgetting that Yosef Berhan (Piedmont Hills) is in D1. This is the same Berhan who ran 15:09 at Rough Rider- Shrey Chettier won't be able to keep up. Los Altos is in D3 now
1. Griffin Kushen (Tesoro): 193.4 2. Trey Caldwell (De La Salle): 192.97 (193 to highball) 3. Aydon Stefanopoulos (Los Gatos): 190.53 4. Tyler Daillak (Paso Robles): 190.1 5. Dylan Flores (Glendora): 188.17 6. JR Lesher (Hueneme): 187.63 7. Hunter Hannah (Matilda Torres): 183.87 8. Alijah Murillo (Branham): 183.8 9. Aidan Antonio (Woodbridge): 183.2 10. Jackson Stream (Vacaville): 182.67
Division 3: 1. Miles Cook (SHCP): 187.73 2. Zion Ortiz (Burroughs Ridgecrest): 187 3. Evan Noonan (Dana Hills): 186 4. Oliver Clippinger-Zimmerman (Thousand Oaks): 184.67 5. Liam Miller (South Torrance): 184.23 6. Josiah Bowman (Sage Creek): 182 7. Oliver Hunter (Dana Hills): 181.60 8. Andres Lomeli (Kimball): 179.73 9. Andrew Quast (West Torrance): 178 10. Nate Griffin-Yeh (Las Lomas)? (Explanation: Couldn't find anyone to fill the 10th spot in D3. Given past times and recent performances, Yeh seems to be a solid pick)
Division 4: 1. Broen Holman (Sonora): 192.53 2. Eli Fitchen-Young (Santa Cruz): 187.67 3. Auge Martin (Saint Francis): 187.33 4. Noel Huato (Del Oro): 182 (I am pretty sure Del Oro is D4) 5. Christian Yoder (Oaks Christian): 181.57 6. Max Douglas (Corona Del Mar): 180.67 7. Taye Newman (Jserra): 180.03 8. Cooper McNee (Oaks Christian): 179.5 9. Bradley Arrey (Jserra): 178.17 10. Callum McBride (Albany): 177.5
Division 5: 1. Landon Pretre (Menlo): 190.83 2. Olly O Conner (Viewpoint): 187.33 3. Eyan Turk (Woodcrest Christian): 185.8 4. Ben Bouie (CSUS) 5. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Nueva): 181.67 6. Theo Udelson-Nee (Wildwood): 179 7. Tarik Baker (CSUS) 8. Will Hauser (Menlo): 178.73 9. Henry Hauser (Menlo) 10. Blake Bay (Fresno Christian)
I do feel guys like Noonan and Bouie should be higher. Guys like Baker, H Hauser, and Bay definitely have a shot at making podium as of recent races.
In Division 2, I think you left out Justin Fann of St. Francis Mountain View (CCS). He popped off last track season and he has been running mid 15’s all XC season. Do you think he could finish in the top 10?
You're forgetting that Yosef Berhan (Piedmont Hills) is in D1. This is the same Berhan who ran 15:09 at Rough Rider- Shrey Chettier won't be able to keep up. Los Altos is in D3 now
According to the crosscountryexpress.com Piedmont Hills is in D2
You're forgetting that Yosef Berhan (Piedmont Hills) is in D1. This is the same Berhan who ran 15:09 at Rough Rider- Shrey Chettier won't be able to keep up. Los Altos is in D3 now
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