Down goes the Dow

Don't flatter yourself. You have absolutely nothing to do with any of my decisions.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

•

Doubled my holdings in SPLS today. That's probably it for the buying spree for awhile.

Read more:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?board=1&id=6684913&thread=5369837#6684913#ixzz4BgEcF5ja

Why would you buy a stock that you don't like?

U.S. stock futures extended losses Thursday morning, as investors fretted about a potential U.K. exit from the European Union, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and Bank of Japan raising concerns about next week's so-called Brexit referendum. Adding to the bearish sentiment was a sharp drop in oil prices, along with news that a reading on inflation missed expectations, while initial jobless claims rose. Ahead of the opening bell, the main benchmarks looked set for a sixth straight session of losses.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 87 points, or 0.5%, to 17,465, while those for the S&P 500 index gave up 11 points, or 0.5%, to 2,061. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index dropped 24 points, or 0.5%, to 4,389.

"Tin hats time. Markets are in full risk-off mood after the Fed flagged Brexit as a very real threat to growth. Low interest rates are here to stay, and that could be it for the year," said Joe Rundle, head of trading at ETX Capital, in a note. The Fed on Wednesday signaled it will delay interest rate increases, demonstrating it's not overly confident in the economy. U.S. stocks relinquished modest gains and closed lower after the Fed decision. The S&P 500 index and the Dow average both ended the session down 0.2%.

Meanwhile, the Japanese central bank on Thursday made no changes to its asset-purchase program or interest rates. The lack of action was interpreted as caution ahead of the June 23 Brexit referendum. "Japan's decision to stand pat on rates has rattled markets, prompting a further rush to safety that's sent the yen soaring to fresh highs," Rundle said. "These central banks are being cautious because of the hazards from overseas--the number one threat right now is that Britain could leave the EU."

econ:

CPI: y/y +1.0%

Core CPI year over year +2.2%

So about the same as we've seen there. Pretty much perfect inflation.

Jobless claims: 4 wk numbers still in range

Philly Fed: slightly positive, in range

Housing market index: near cycle highs

So no real surprises today.

Union Pacific is a durable company that is sensitive to economic growth and a number of different commodity markets.

While current macro conditions are far from ideal and could certainly get worse from here (no one knows), the long-term outlook remains stable in my view.

Freight demand should continue to expand with population growth, and Union Pacific's railroads will likely remain an essential component of our country's supply chain for many years to come.

As long as we are not on the brink of another recession or a bigger bust in commodity markets, Union Pacific appears to be reasonably priced for long-term dividend growth investors seeking exposure to industrial-sensitive stocks. It's the type of company I like to own in our Top 20 Dividend Stocks portfolio."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3982270-union-pacific-high-dividend-growth-durable-moat?ifp=0

Japanese bonds negative

Swiss bonds negative

Now even German bonds negative

When will the US follow?

The other guy! wrote:

Japanese bonds negative

Swiss bonds negative

Now even German bonds negative

When will the US follow?

Here's what it means:

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Wake me up when something happens. I've been voting "neutral" in that survey every time since last November.

There is an article in Pensions & Investments in the present issue that concludes with:

We're all traders now if we're making returns. And only God knows how long this is going to continue.

BTW, I see DB mentioned on here from time to time (yes. Maserati, I did go short on the breakdown), CHK, etc. How come nobody (well, I guess nobody but me) is talking about being short Nike? And Under Armour, at least in my case? If you hate Nike over doping, Salazar, Boris Berian, etc. like I do--when Adidas dumped Gay immediately over doping, and Nike signed him, it made me very proud to wear Adidas--this is your chance to get even.

coach d

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RE: The Tragic Bull Market Culture 4/17/2016 5:22PM - in reply to coach d

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Well, I did call it (so far). SP500 and crude opened sharply lower. Oil down 2.57, SP down 11. We'll see what the broad US market does, but I took profits on both at the Globex open.

coach d

registered

RE: The Tragic Bull Market Culture 4/17/2016 8:07PM - in reply to Agip

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Agip,

I am not joining the dark side, but I am taking a bunch of chips off the table for now. On S&P trading, I held out from 12/11/2015 to 2/11/2016 because of concern over what the FED would do and its impacts on the market (correctly I think) and have made 2 long trades since: 1811->1885 and 1947->2072 basis cash, which results in almost exactly 200 full S&P points profit, and at 15:1 leverage, that's over a 100% return if I segregated out just the 15 S&P contracts. Too much money at stake to leave to chance, and similar situations in oil and palladium. I am not forecasting a crash or anything, but as I said above, I took a bunch of chips off the table.

So on 4/17, coach d posts at 5:22 CDT he has exited his long SP position and later tells Agip it was 15 contracts with a 2072 handle. The problem is the 1st trade did not occur until 5:32 CDT, and it was for 2 contracts at 2064.90

U.S. stock futures struggled for direction on Friday as investors reassessed the possibility of Britain leaving the European Union after both sides in the referendum debate suspended campaigning for a second day following the murder of a British lawmaker.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 31 points, or 0.2%, to 17,612, while those for the S&P 500 index fell 5.60 points, or 0.3%, to 2,065. Futures for Nasdaq-100 index dropped 6.75 points, or 0.1%, to 4,410.

The benchmarks on Thursday erased early losses to break a five-day losing streak after the murder of British Member of Parliament Jo Cox was seen as bolstering the campaign for the U.K. to remain in the European Union. The pound, which has effectively worked as a gauge of Brexit sentiment, erased losses on Thursday and continued to rise on Friday. Sterling traded at $1.4281, up from $1.4202 late Thursday in New York.

"Market action suggests traders think this could become a turning point in the Brexit campaign shifting the momentum from 'Leave' back to 'Remain' or delaying the vote," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in a note.

"The big relief rally sparked by [Thursday's] tragedy does indicate that the prospects of a Brexit had already been priced into sterling, gold and some other currencies. Since it's still uncertain what could happen from here, we could see more big intraday swings and reversals over the next 24 hours, through the rest of the campaign and possibly after the votes are counted," he said.

gente,

You're kind of on your own with the 'coach d is a fraud' posts...we're all anonymous posters here and nothing is verifiable. Everything has to be taken with a dose of salt.

Seems to be Coach D is pretty good on actually making money rather than theorizing about how to make money.

I'm not real interested in accusations of fraud...I mean who cares. I'm always glad to read what D writes.

Agip

While I have suggested that coach d's reports are too rosy to be believable, and often seem to be after-the-fact, my best friend is a momentum trader and has done very well over the past 6 months.

These trading things move in cycles.

Me otoh, I have been explicit on my "market moves": the bulk out at 16.5k a long while ago now, a relatively tiny 401k to CD's at 16.9 or 17.1k, I can't remember now because it's not particularly relevant.

RE is getting strange again, lots of sellers are fishing for suckers. Also, I sense a growing movement to unload RE retirement accounts: expensive lakefront properties, expensive "executive" homes, expensive giant McMansions. People are increasingly trying to cash out of high-priced RE, so it's not just the equity markets.

Of course this is only my personal experience in a few markets.

And as always, agip provides good laughs. agip I have matured from being driven nuts by you, to laughing at you. It's not that I wish you ill, it's that I understand that there's nothing that I can do that would affect your belief system, which is what seems to be your dominant driving force.

I wish you the best, but sadly I know you won't get it.

DJIA cruising around 17,650, still propped up by the Fed. The real economy's screwed, and "inflation" is driven SOLELY by prices and demand that are respectively inflated and created by governmental policy.

It's fake, phoney-baloney. Of course there is still "an economy", but what it really is, nobody has a clue because of the policy-driven obfuscation of the markets. This is why people now trade on policy rather than on economy.

Maserati wrote:

And as always, agip provides good laughs. agip I have matured from being driven nuts by you, to laughing at you. It's not that I wish you ill, it's that I understand that there's nothing that I can do that would affect your belief system, which is what seems to be your dominant driving force.

I wish you the best, but sadly I know you won't get it.

DJIA cruising around 17,650, still propped up by the Fed. The real economy's screwed, and "inflation" is driven SOLELY by prices and demand that are respectively inflated and created by governmental policy.

It's fake, phoney-baloney. Of course there is still "an economy", but what it really is, nobody has a clue because of the policy-driven obfuscation of the markets. This is why people now trade on policy rather than on economy.

hey, fine, laugh at the simpleton who makes his money passively.

I'll laugh all the way to the bank.

Vanguard balanced index (60% stocks/40% bonds), which I am basically matching with my portfolio:

3 years: +7.5%/yr

5 yrs: +8.8%/yr

10 yrs: +6.8%/yr

15 yrs: +6.0% per year

laugh at me all day, buddy

econ:

just housing starts: no real change - in same high range since May 2015.

interestingly permits are down 10% y/y tho.

Ghost of IgIoi wrote:

Maser,

You can be a real dick at times.

Igy

+1

You don't get it agip...I'm not really laughing AT YOU, I'm laughing at the absurdity of things in general, one side of which you personify.

I personify another side, which is equally laughable from a different perspective, perhaps yours.

Maybe one day we'll go for a run, and then a beer and then we can laugh at each other. Hopefully we'll each be in a position to go dutch. :)

I had a couple of paragraphs typed about the market I'm involved in now (other than RE) that I haven't told you guys about, but I have decided not to post them and have erased them. While an international market, it is, like some fine art, limited. This is one to which there is no significant entry barrier, but where the "profitable realm" definitely does have an entry barrier. It is also something that, again, requires knowledge and research. While there are existing competitors operating in an existing market, there are still opportunities for the solo player, if done smartly. Made a big buy today, looks EXCELLENT on paper, pretty excited about it.

Maserati wrote:

I had a couple of paragraphs typed about the market I'm involved in now (other than RE) that I haven't told you guys about, but I have decided not to post them and have erased them. While an international market, it is, like some fine art, limited. This is one to which there is no significant entry barrier, but where the "profitable realm" definitely does have an entry barrier. It is also something that, again, requires knowledge and research. While there are existing competitors operating in an existing market, there are still opportunities for the solo player, if done smartly. Made a big buy today, looks EXCELLENT on paper, pretty excited about it.

Someone please tell me that this guy is a troll.

New around here wrote:

Maserati wrote:

I had a couple of paragraphs typed about the market I'm involved in now (other than RE) that I haven't told you guys about, but I have decided not to post them and have erased them. While an international market, it is, like some fine art, limited. This is one to which there is no significant entry barrier, but where the "profitable realm" definitely does have an entry barrier. It is also something that, again, requires knowledge and research. While there are existing competitors operating in an existing market, there are still opportunities for the solo player, if done smartly. Made a big buy today, looks EXCELLENT on paper, pretty excited about it.

Someone please tell me that this guy is a troll.

If your idea of a troll is someone who brags about his superior intelligence while offering zero proof to support that claim ("it's a secret"), then this guy is the king of all trolls.

Are we all shorting TSLA or what?