"Yet few here criticize or see the duplicity in the numbers and analysis coming from Wall Street."
"Yet few here criticize or see the duplicity in the numbers and analysis coming from Wall Street."
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fantasy,
My point being, if you are counting on a second half earnings recovery, the facts say "that is more fantasy than reality."
Igy
well the thing about predicting the future is that there are no facts yet. Because it is the future.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Fantasy,
My point being, if you are counting on a second half earnings recovery, the facts say "that is more fantasy than reality."
Igy
What facts are those?
"Last Twelve Months non-GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share for Q1 2016 is $98.61. Currently Wall Street estimates LTM per shares earnings for 2016 at $114.64. The current non-GAAP earnings for Q1 2016 is $23.97, so to reach the 2016 number of $114.64, the next three quarter earnings must average $30.22 to reach that number. Speaking of facts, the highest quarterly non-GAAP quarter ever was $29.60 for Q3 2014."
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
"Last Twelve Months non-GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share for Q1 2016 is $98.61. Currently Wall Street estimates LTM per shares earnings for 2016 at $114.64. The current non-GAAP earnings for Q1 2016 is $23.97, so to reach the 2016 number of $114.64, the next three quarter earnings must average $30.22 to reach that number. Speaking of facts, the highest quarterly non-GAAP quarter ever was $29.60 for Q3 2014."
There are no facts there for the second half, only estimates.
Fact 1: Last Twelve Months non-GAAP S&P 500 earnings per share for Q1 2016 is $98.61.
Fact 2: The current non-GAAP earnings for Q1 2016 is $23.97.
Fact 3: Currently Wall Street estimates LTM per shares earnings for 2016 at $114.64.
Fact 4: So to reach the 2016 number of $114.64, the next three quarter earnings must average $30.22 to reach that number.
You need glasses and a healthy dose of intuitive ability.
I can't help you with that.
Igy
Fact 5: At the moment, everything about the 2nd half is fantasy, not fact.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:Fantasy,
My point being, if you are counting on a second half earnings recovery, the facts say "that is more fantasy than reality."
Igy
well the thing about predicting the future is that there are no facts yet. Because it is the future.
Well, the thing about predicting the future is that it's much easier when it starts in the past.
FACT: From BEA data, for all companies (not just SP500), corporate profits went UP in the first quarter. This is my canary in the coal mine chart, and it appears that the canary is still singing. The improvement wasn't large (1.9%), but it WAS an improvement:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=147069&category_id=FACT: I would not want to be investing other peoples' money based on bottom-up eps. This is the part that Igy doesn't get. See the Bottom Up Q2 2016 EPS chart on page 19. This stuff is terrible as a trading signal unless you have a very long timeframe, and maybe not even then:
https://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_6.10.16coach d,
First, I was talking about S&P 500 companies in the discussion. Second, I am criticizing the S&P operating earnings estimates that are wildly optimistic. Unfortunately these operating estimates are constantly articulated by the financial media and Wall Street. FactSet is anything but factual or set in their methodology. They are another mouthpiece for the Wall Street money machine. Lastly, I will leave the stock trading in your capable hands.
Igy
Fantasy,
The fact is Wall Street sets earnings expectations, and unfortunately they are wildly optimistic for a purpose. The narrative is "there is never a time not to buy stocks."
Igy
coach d,
I prefer this chart to your FRED rendition:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/chart-of-the-day-the-everything-bubble/
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
First, I was talking about S&P 500 companies in the discussion. Second, I am criticizing the S&P operating earnings estimates that are wildly optimistic. Unfortunately these operating estimates are constantly articulated by the financial media and Wall Street. FactSet is anything but factual or set in their methodology. They are another mouthpiece for the Wall Street money machine. Lastly, I will leave the stock trading in your capable hands.
Igy
Yes, coach d is a fabulist investor.
BTW Igy, I'm rather disappointed it has taken you so long to quote the Ãœber bear, Albert Edwards.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
I prefer this chart to your FRED rendition:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/chart-of-the-day-the-everything-bubble/Igy
So household assets are high relative to disposable income. How is this a bad thing?
...only if the household assets are going up exponentially in comparison to disposable income.....
Albert Edwards view is more closer to the truth than the fantasy of growth thur ZIRP and NIRP....
U.S. stock futures sagged Tuesday, indicating Wall Street could face a fourth straight loss, as investors remained on edge over a Federal Reserve policy meeting and the coming U.K. vote on membership of the European Union. Market reaction to better-than-expected retail sales was muted.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 45 points, or 0.3%, to 17,595, futures for the S&P 500 were off 5 points, or 0.3%, to 2,064. Nasdaq-100 futures lost 13 points, or 0.3%, to 4,405. The moves came after the S&P 500 and the Dow on Monday each finished at their lowest close since May 24. The S&P 500 lost 0.8% to 2,079.06, while the Dow fell 0.7% to 17,732.48. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.9% to close at 4,848.44, its lowest finish since May 23.
Investors are still showing signs of anxiousness about the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, which starts Tuesday, and about the outcome of the U.K. "Brexit" referendum. Fueling the uncertainty around the vote are opinion polls that have shown support for "leave" and "remain" at neck-and-neck. Some surveys are suggesting growing support for an "out" vote at the June 23 referendum. "A big spike in the volatility index VIX yesterday is indicative of a lot of uncertainty in the market and investors preparing for the worst. If U.K. stays in the European Union then the there is very limited upside for stocks, because essentially it's just a status quo. If they vote to leave, there is a lot of room for downside," said Randy Frederick, managing director of Trading & Derivatives at Schwab Center for Financial Research.
Investors have been moving into the fixed-income market on a hunt for safety ahead of the EU referendum, putting pressure on government bond yields. On Tuesday, the German 10-year bund yield turned negative for the first time, hitting minus 0.003%.
Oil prices extended losses even as the International Energy Agency said oil markets are moving close to balance in the second half of 2016 with stockpiles smaller than it expected. Crude was down 1.2% to $48.29 a barrel while Brent gave up 1.2% at $49.74 a barrel.
MarketWatching
High frequency traders are still showing signs of anxiousness about the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting, which starts Tuesday, and about the outcome of the U.K. "Brexit" referendum. Fueling the uncertainty around the vote are opinion polls that have shown support for "leave" and "remain" at neck-and-neck. Some surveys are suggesting growing support for an "out" vote at the June 23 referendum. "A big spike in the volatility index VIX yesterday is indicative of a lot of uncertainty in the market and high frequency traders are positioned for both sides of the trade. If U.K. stays in the European Union then there is the excuse for upside in stocks, because essentially it's just a status quo. If they vote to leave, there is a lot of room for downside," said Igy.
Evidence is starting to build that the long-dormant bull market is reawakening.
What about AAII sentiment indicators?
“You don’t hear a lot of people calling for a bear market anymore,†said Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management in Minneapolis, which has increased equity holdings in the past three months after predicting a 20 percent plunge as recent as January. “There was a deep enough and lengthy enough decline to clear the decks for a cyclical rise in stock prices.â€
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
What about AAII sentiment indicators?
“You don’t hear a lot of people calling for a bear market anymore,†said Doug Ramsey, the chief investment officer at Leuthold Weeden Capital Management in Minneapolis, which has increased equity holdings in the past three months after predicting a 20 percent plunge as recent as January. “There was a deep enough and lengthy enough decline to clear the decks for a cyclical rise in stock prices.â€
AAII has both bullish and bearish sentiment at low levels. Giant numbers of neutral people. I think that is unusual - not sure what it means.
http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurveyecon:
small business optimism continues to be low and rangebound
retail sales y/y +2.5% but ex gas and autos +4.1%. Not bad at all.
prices. still down a lot y/y around minus 5.0% but m/m prices are rising 1.1-1.4%. So inflation is there.
same store sales low and rangebound 0.7%
Inventory to sales ratio is high but it did fall a bit.