dump
dump
S&P 500 Q1 2016 Earnings Scorecard
98% Reported, 498 Reported
179 of 498 beat as reported earnings (GAAP)
265 of 494 beat on sales
LTM GAAP earnings tracking at $86.41, last time lower 6/30/2011
LTM non-GAAP tracking at $98.61, last time lower 3/31/2013
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
http://www.businessinsider.com/condition-red-alert-recession-is-imminent-2016-6
Edwards said in his Ice Age thesis, the idea that we're in the midst of a multidecade downturn for stocks and financial assets...
WTF?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
dump
Why must you be so obstinate? Can you answer the question or not?
Everything is awesome. No bad days. One life, live it. Second half earning recovery.
U.S. stock futures joined global equity markets in a push lower on Monday, driven by fears that U.K. voters will choose to leave the European Union in just over a week and amid some nervousness ahead of central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 52 points, or 0.3%, to 17,724, while S&P 500 futures dropped 6.3 points, or 0.3%, to 2,081. Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 15.25 points, or 0.3%, to 4,442.75.
A global selloff that began on Friday seemed determined to resume as Asian markets picked up the baton. The Nikkei 225 index finished 3.5% lower as the Japanese yen soared against rivals, hitting a three-year high against the euro. The Shanghai Composite lost more than 3%, as investors absorbed several economic reports out of China. "All the price action seen during the Asia session has been indicative of markets hunkering down and reducing risk," Simon Smith, chief economist at FxPro, in a note to clients Monday. Smith said the Federal Reserve statement due later this week could even be eclipsed by the Bank of Japan decision due Thursday, given the "unconventional nature" of policies coming from Tokyo in particular.
European stocks dropped near 1%. Across other markets, oil prices were under pressure, with Brent briefly dropping under $50 a barrel, while gold was up about $7.70, or 0.6%, to $1,283.50. Wall Street finished lower for a second straight session on Friday, as jittery investors rushed into government bonds, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury to a three-year low. The S&P 500 finished 19.41 points, or 0.9%, lower at 2,096.07 on Friday, and suffered its first weekly loss in four weeks, dropping 0.2%.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Everything is awesome. No bad days. One life, live it. Second half earning recovery.
Why is it that agip, coach d, la gente, etc can offer insights and answers but you offer nonsense in response to simple questions? When you talk pout your butt and your called on it just admit that.
Igy, probably worth a peruse - a new book about how GAAP accounting, which the author argues was designed for heavy industry, does not give an accurate picture of modern companies.
hence all the non gaap accounting, which the street seems to agree is more accurate.
I have no view other than feeling that many companies surely abuse non gaap accounting.
http://www.barrons.com/articles/a-new-book-argues-gaap-accounting-is-irrelevant-1465628965
I think a lot of us knew that about GAAP accounting. The problem is the alternative has potential for abuse. As usual, the truth often lies somewhere in between.
fair.
looking at my list of predictions, this one stands out. January 28. market was falling fast and hard. Speakers at an ETF conference were asked for their views on the market. Marc Faber nad Dennis Gartman:
Both Faber and Dennis Gartman used the term "Not in my lifetime" to lay out their belief as to when stocks and oil, respectively, would really rally.
Unless they died on the way home from the conference, they have to be at least a little embarassed as the market is up 12.4% from that day and around 16% from its 2016 lows.
predicting the stock market is a massive waste of time.
In other news, I am making money on my china short and on gold.
I would so love to make money on both long and short sides.
and right now, at this moment, I am.
agip wrote:
predicting the stock market is a massive waste of time.
Preach.
agip,
The revisionists ("this time is different") used that same argument in 2000 and it proved incorrect. I don't buy it.
Igy
Of course you are correct as usual and that is why you are the Idiot Investor.
Igy
This Week:
Like Water Out of a Sponge
The higher the price one pays for a given set of future cash flows, the lower the long-term return one can expect on the investment. With every increase in security prices, what was “prospective future return†a moment earlier is instantly converted into “realized past return,†like water being squeezed out of a sponge. As a result, realized past returns always appear the most compelling at exactly the point where prospective future returns are the most dismal. Based on valuation measures that we find most strongly correlated with actual subsequent investment returns across history, we currently estimate that a conventional portfolio mix of 60% S&P 500, 30% Treasury bonds, and 10% Treasury bills is likely to return just 1.6% annually over the coming 12-year period from current valuation extremes.
By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
Predictions aren't worth spit. See above.
Valuations do matter, and do have predictive ability, but believe what you wish, see below:
"As a side note, we continue to see the same reliable signal of bubble peaks that appeared in 1929, 2000, and 2007: the emergence of novel valuation measures encouraging investors to believe that current extremes are still reasonable. This practice repeats because, to use John Kenneth Galbraith’s timeless phrase, 'as in all periods of speculation, men sought not to be persuaded by the reality of things but to find excuses for escaping into the new world of fantasy.' "
John Hussman, 6/13/2016
"Present overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yield conditions fall within a tiny percentage of market history that is associated with dismal market outcomes, on average. It's true that we've observed extreme conditions since about March 2012 with little resolution aside from short-term declines. But the S&P 500 remains only a few percent from its March 2012 high, and if history is any guide, the extension of these unfavorable conditions is not likely to reduce the depth of the market loss that can be expected to resolve them."
John Hussman, 1/14/2013
(For the record, the S&P 500 opened at 1472 on the day Hussman's comments were published. Today it is over 40% higher.)
"It’s often said that smart people learn from their own mistakes, but the wise learn from the mistakes of others. Eleanor Roosevelt added “you can’t live long enough to make them all yourself.†I’ve openly detailed the challenges that we encountered during the half-cycle advance in recent years, which began with my insistence in 2009, after a financial crisis that we fully anticipated, on stress-testing our methods of classifying market return/risk profiles against Depression-era data. Following a difficult and admittedly awkward transition (where I relied too heavily on historical regularities related to "overvalued, overbought, overbullish syndromes" that were disarmed by QE in the risk-seeking bulk of this half-cycle), we introduced adaptations in mid-2014 that require explicit deterioration in market internals as a requirement before taking a hard-negative market outlook. The complete narrative and the central lessons are freely available to the wise among both our adherents and our critics (see A Better Lesson Than “This Time Is Different†and the Box in The Next Big Short: The Third Crest of a Rolling Tsunami). "