NEW Atlantic Region XC *2009* thread

Final top 10 prediction:

1. Geneseo: now the favorite with their SUNYAC win, they will also be on their home course. I think that they'll narrowly hold off a charging Cortland team.

2. Cortland: If they re-gain their pack of last year then they could easily take first. I think that they will match up well with Geneseo but be just a step behind and lose by 10 or less.

3. NYU: Maher is running well. They have a good pack, but it's not as fast as SUNY G's or C's. I would put them about 20-25 or so behind 2nd.

4. SLU: Good top two, finally get a rest week before regionals. If their pack pulls together (Fox, Malcomb, Millard; Johnston and Beaudette have started to come alive) They could come close to NYU. Approximately 20 points behind NYU.

5. RIT: Burdick is running well, they have a decent pack and guys that can come up big on a good day.

6. UR: Lacking a front runner, but they will be more focused on regionals this year. Their pack will be back together but too far back to catch RIT.

7. Fredonia: Finally starting showing some promise. No 5th guy though, that will hurt badly. I don't think their pack will be as tight as it was at SUNYAC, putting them behind UR.

8. Ithaca: They had a pretty good race this weekend at Toga, but they are still behind where they need to be to get 6th or 7th. UR and RIT have shown that they are better teams, and I think that Fredonia is as well. Ithaca also has a bit of a spread problem at times (though this weekend was better).

9. Hamilton: they could beat Ithaca if the latter has one of their bigger spread days. Ithaca is the better team though, and should be 8th.

10. TCNJ: Also showed some promise this weekend. It's really tough to put them this far back, but they have had such a shaky season and their 5th guy still just barely broke 28 this past weekend. They could definitely have a hard time fighting off Oneonta and Plattsburgh.

In my mind, the 8-10 spots are the least set of all. I think that Plattsburgh could be anywhere from 7th through 12th, but the way they've been racing I can't justify putting them ahead of more consistent teams. Oneonta had a great race last weekend, but I'm not sure that they can do much better, and I don't think they did well enough to take down Ithaca, NJ, or Hamilton.

Anyways, should be a GREAT meet, on par with 05 (when 4 points separated the top 3 teams) and 06 (close top 2, close 3-5) but with faster teams top to bottom.

See you on the 14th.

I think you were off with some of these. i think Plattsburgh and Oneonta should be a little higher, with a drop by a few of these other teams (based on Saratoga times.) Plattsburgh ran well, as did Oneonta, in utterly terrible conditions. if you watch any video from the RPI invite you will see that the course was in the worst possible condition. That being said, Plattsburgh and Oneonta both ran much better than RIT or Ithaca. Plattsubrgh needs no touting, but Oneonta's 5 were in before RIT's top 5, and well before Itahca's scorers. Based on the same course with much worse conditons for Oneonta's race, I think it stands that oneonta and plattsburgh should be ranked ahead of RIT and Ithaca. On another note, oneonta and plattsburgh have beaten Hamilton each time they raced them, so why is Hamilton ranked ahead of them? Lastly, Oneonta and Plattsburgh ran faster than TCNJ did this weekend. All of this is completely objective and based on results. Take it how you want to.

yo dawg. bringing plattsburgh into the picture doesnt help defend your hopeless case for Oneonta.

Okay...

Apparently you haven't seen the SUNYAC results. Oneonta and Plattsburgh were 50 and 53 points out of 3rd place in a 10-team race. Fredonia was 3rd and they are at BEST the 5th or 6th team in the region. Hell Fredonia was closer to Cortland than Oneonta was to Fredonia.

For arguments sake lets call Fredonia the 7th best team in the AR (probably about right). They put 4 in front of Oneonta's 1 and 6 before Plattsburgh's 3. They both reside out of the top 10 no question.

Just get out of here. Please.

Big Will's top 10 looks damn good to me.

Also, calling it a 10-team race is pretty generous. All of the above mentioned teams had 5 scorers in before Potsdam's and Buff State's first man and with the exception of Gentsch (props to him) New Paltz wasn't really in the picture either.

[quote]Dont be so sure wrote:

I think you were off with some of these. i think Plattsburgh and Oneonta should be a little higher, with a drop by a few of these other teams (based on Saratoga times.)

i agree that Big Will's predictions look pretty good, the geneseo/cortland showdown should be fun to watch

you're really going to make an argument that plattsburgh and oneonta should be ranked higher than RIT or Ithaca based on times from different courses and against different teams!? yea, that makes sense. have you ever run a cross race, ever?

Hey did Cortland wear Polos and ties this year at the awards?

If not I bet they were ready to.

Geneseo was foolish to apply such mental exertion this early in the season. Being the Harvard of the SUNY schools, they clearly are getting cocky with their mental advantage and are doing too much, too soon. They should do OK at regionals with the 2 weeks recovery, but the 1 week between regionals and nationals will kill them. They need to remember that they are still only a state school, and such intense mental preparation will physically cripple them in no time.

blackheart wrote:

[quote]Dont be so sure wrote:

you're really going to make an argument that plattsburgh and oneonta should be ranked higher than RIT or Ithaca based on times from different courses and against different teams!? yea, that makes sense. have you ever run a cross race, ever?

I believe they were referring to the times that Plattsburgh and Oneonta ran at Saratoga a week before RIT, Ithaca, and SLU ran there, which is certainly a valid comparison. It seems to me that the second Toga race ran a little slower, and RIT and SLU have shown in the past that they are better than Plattsburgh, Oneonta, and Fredonia. Like I said, I think that Plattsburgh could be as high as 7th if they have a good day, but they've been inconsistent and I can't justify putting them ahead of teams that have been much more consistent. And again, the 8-10 spots are definitely more shaky that the others, with a good day Oneonta could probably sneak in there. They got beat pretty soundly by Fredonia, and like someone said before, they are a 5-7 (probably closer to 7) team in the region.

Agree or disagree, that's my reasoning.

Okay I've spent way too much time on here in the past 12 hours. Peace.

The past should prove alone how the winner of SUNYACS fairs at Regionals. Since 2000 (the farthest I checked back) the winner of SUNYACS was always the top SUNY school finisher at Regionals. I can't believe this garbage about Geneseo trying too hard and it will bite them in the ass or whatever. It Never did before.

Regionals..SUNYACS

09.........Geneseo

...........Cortland

...........Fredonia

...........Oneonta

08

Cortland..Cortland

Geneseo...Geneseo

Plattsburgh..Plattsburgh

Fredonia..Fredonia

07

Cortland...Cortland

Geneseo....Geneseo

Brockport..Oneonta

Fredonia...Brockport

06

Cortland....Cortland

Geneseo.....Geneseo

Plattsburgh..Brockport

Brockport...Oswego

05

Geneseo.....Geneseo

???.........Cortland

???.........Brockport

???.........Plattsburgh

04

Geneseo.....Geneseo

Cortland....Cortland

Brockport...Brockport

Plattsburgh..Plattsburgh

03

Geneseo.....Geneseo

Plattsburgh..Plattsburgh

Brockport....Brockport

Cortland.....Cortland

02

Geneseo......Geneseo

Plattsburgh..Brockport

Brockport....Plattsburgh

Cortland.....New Paltz

01

Geneseo......Geneseo

Plattsburgh..Plattsburgh

New Paltz....New Paltz

Cortland.....Brockport

00

Geneseo......Geneseo

New Paltz....New Paltz

Fredonia.....Fredonia

Oswego.......Oswego

if read it at all he said saratoga times. Nice job

Hey wrote:

if read it at all he said saratoga times. Nice job

Nice job indeed. At least take the time to read what you wrote before you submit it.

Its still a stupid comparison. I find it hard to believe that anyone who has been following the region at all thinks that Plattsburgh and Oneonta can compete with RIT/Ithaca, much less SLU. SLU has spanked Platts every time they have raced, RIT demolished Platts at Albany not too long ago. Oneonta will be lucky to get top 10 in the region. Plattsburgh is fading fast, it would seem.

If either Plattsburgh or Oneonta beat RIT at regionals, or even have an average time within 30 seconds, I'll eat my hat. I could see Plattsburgh beating Ithaca, but only if Ithaca has a bad day.

How about a rundown of top SUNYAC teams vs. top NCAA teams? I know it might be a little tougher past '06 because the nationals bid system worked different, but I think that might be a more applicable analysis to the current argument.

I think that based on the toga times slu and rit are closer to fredonia and rochester than some people think.

True the course probably ran slower, but if you think about it it couldn't have run much slower than it did a week ago. last week was worse for weather than this week. Anyways that doesn't matter because toga runs fast regardless. The place where there is grass is at the start for 400m, the rest of the course is pretty hard packed gravel trails. Anyways I think that there will be a good race for 1-3 if cortland doesn't have another bad race, and there will be a good race from 4-7 between the four teams mentioned above. I don't really care about any other teams because they don't have a shot to go to nationals. I think 3 teams are shoe ins and 4 teams will be fighting for the last 2 spots for nationals because the AR will get 5 teams. If I had to rank the teams right now:

1.geneseo (have to rank them after they beat cortland, is geneseo really that good. I was very inpressed with lee berube for beating Heymann, so much for not running to his potential)

2t.Cortland (maybe a bad race, but if they run like that at regionals they will probably get beat by NYU)

2t.NYU(they keep proving they belong in top 2 with another

solid showing)

4.SLU(another average performance they beat rit so they stay ahead of them)

5.RIT(still in fifth beacause they haven't gone against fred or roch recently and the last time those teams met was at geneseo where rit beat both of them)

6.Rochester(in sixth because they beat fredonia before, but we will see if they can show up to regionals this year. last year was just pathetic for them.)

7.Fredonia(obviously a better showing at sunyac's, but they are 7th as of right now because there 5th man will hurt them. need someone to step up)

Explain to me why SLU is close to RIT? They just spanked them on what everyone is calling an average day, and without Malcomb. Both Malcomb and Fox are capable of running what Mwenda ran that day (look at last years results).

The most recent race at SPAC was slower, but I think it has more to do with a lack of aggression than anything else. Keene State, who was in the first race, is known for charging to the front and getting out fast. I would assume a different tone, if you will, accounts for the slower times the next week.

I think UofR could take down RIT if they can't get going. However, SLU just handled UofR easily at NYSCTC on what is their home course(?).

Can Hardbarger repeat his race from the 06 regional?

I think it's reasonable to say SLU and RIT are closer than people have believed all year. RIT had a fairly poor day at 'toga in every way, including Hardbarger running 27:14. I'm not saying RIT will beat SLU at regionals, but I do think it will be a lot closer than you apparently believe.

i think that RIT, UofR, and Fredonia are all very close.

anyone of these teams might have a chance(note:there is always a chance) of taking down SLU. SLU will probably come fourth. i believe the fifth spot is any of these five teams race.

Maybe I got a little too excited. Let's just see what the real rankings say