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casual obsever wrote:
ivansolero wrote:
For God’s sake is anyone testing these so called athletes.
Yes. But testing is overrated, see e.g. Armstrong or Kiprop.
Or look at the overall numbers of the IAAF. About 1% of the tests are positive (same for UCI btw), but we know from the Tubingen/Harvard study that at least 44% are drug cheats.
Wow...44% - that's almost 1 out of 2! Simply mind boggling...athletics is out of control!
Give it up, Gladwell. Your theory is a bust.
Bad Wigins wrote:
What is Kiptum's height? It appears a record has been snatched back by team TALL after Kipchoge moved marathon to team short.
team TALL: 100m, 200m, 800m, HM, 400h
team short: 5000m, 10,000m, marathon, 110h
not sure of the height of HEG, WVN and Shaheen.
casual obsever wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
You are right, doping is everywhere. But it appears Kenya is currently leading the way. There are more doping busts there than anywhere else at present. But that doesn't mean the Europeans and the Americans are clean. Furthermore, doping doesn't have to be institutionalised to be widespread. And WADA wouldn't go to the bother of issuing a report to give the subject concerned a clean bill of health - and Kenya certainly hasn't been given that.
+1
Except for the part, where "Kenya is currently leading the way".
Doping attitude does not change that fast. From the Sunday Times 2015 leak, we have a list of blood-doping suspects by country. There, the "leaders" were Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Greece, Morocco and Bulgaria, with a percentage from 30 - 22%; twice as high as Kenya's 11%, which was on par with the EU countries Holland and Spain. For comparison, UK and USA had 4% and 5%, respectively.
And again, one has to dope quite brutally to crash through the generous borders of the ABP. E.g., Ashenden showed that one can safely increase Hct by 10 - 15%, and Poistogova for example never got flagged despite her hard-core EPO usage. That implies that the real percentages are substantially higher than for example the 30% for Russia, 11% for Kenya, or 5% for USA.
Here's a copy of the list of suspicious blood tests indicative of doping:
Russia 30%
Ukraine 28%
Turkey 27%
Greece 26%
Morocco 24%
Bulgaria 22%
Bahrain 20%
Belarus 19%
Slovenia 16%
Romania 13%
Brazil 12%
Kenya 11%
Holland 11%
Spain 11%
Colombia 11%
…
Ethiopia 8%
Sweden 7%
Germany 6%
Norway 5%
France 5%
USA 5%
Great Britan 4%
Canada 3%
New Zealand 2%
Doesn't surprise me one bit with Russia's 30% as they lead the World in ABP hematological anomalie sanctions with 37. Lol. And weren't they suppose to behave themselves when the whole country was put on "report" and banned from Rio? However, two Russians were just recently listed on the AIU provisional doping list; a racewalker on an ABP case and one of their sub-2 800m females on an EPO positive. Plain ridiculous! ? I've come to the conclusion that Russia just says screw anti-doping...we'll do what we damn well please.
https://www.athleticsintegrity.org/disciplinary-process/provisional-suspensions-in-forceLet's get back on topic.
How low do you guys think the dude can go at the Abu Dhabi marathon in December,; 2:04, 2:03:30, 2:03 ?
Abu Dhabi must be going frantic finding some pacers right now, a good time would make a splash for that inaugural race !
2:02:47
2:01.37
This is a ridiculously good performance from someone with scant historical foundation for approaching such a world record. The remarkable times thrown down on the roads from 10k to half in recent years by no names are an artifact of limited testing on the road outside the marathon. Kenyan talent and depth are prodigious but my bet is that some European agent is behind 90-120 seconds of his performance below 1:00:00 to 1:00:30.
It really depends on several factors.
1.Weather (might be too hot, might be humid, might be almost perfect)
2.Pacers (i'm sure they will get some good ones)
3.Competition(same as above)
4.How well he recovers after the biggest effort of his life in Valencia.
Note: The ambassador for the inaugural Abu Dhabi Marathon is Paul Tergat. They have the money and the knowledge of Paul. What will be different than in Dubai is that they will have both Ethiopian and Kenyan elite athletes. In Dubai there are only ethiopians. I'm sure Kiptum will also have a lofty appearance fee.
I for one really expect big things from this race. Will be the race of the month, better than Fukuoka in my opinion.
Rhonex Kipruto might well take the record below 58.
zxcvzxcv wrote:
Rhonex Kipruto might well take the record below 58.
Yes this guy has pogo sticks as legs.
D.Katz wrote:
Fortunately, the IAAF has a verification process that requires a second measurement by an IAAF Level measurer. Quite often for high profile races this is done in advance where there will be a team of at least two IAAF measurers with the final outcome, an IAAF "Pre-Verified" Course. This has been done for nearly every Olympic Games Marathon since there have been IAAF approved measurers. It was done as well for the World Half Marathon in Valencia.
Although I don't know the procedures for these high level verifications, I'm wondering whether they involve remeasuring the calibration course, or not. Everything depends on the calibration course's accuracy. If it's wrong, then it doesn't matter how many times you remeasure the course -- it will appear correct, but it won't be.
In my day, I've seen some pretty iffy calibration courses laid down.
Kiptum closed the last 10k in 27:14 (11-21k). This is superior to Rhonex's 26:46 10k. Also Rhonex doesn't have Kiptum's endurance and his form is less economical and efficient. I guess Rhonex wouldn't go faster than 58:50 at the moment.
El Keniano wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
So we have a report from WADA detailing that Kenya has a serious doping problem and we have yet another Kenyan setting another world record. Let's keep those compartments closed, shall we.
The report that confirms doping in Kenya is neither systemic nor institutionalised?
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9031596https://drive.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/final_public_report_on_kenya.pdfhttps://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/33532-doping-kenya-not-systemic-wadaLet's talk about the near non-existent busts in North America and Western Europe that would have you believe that doping levels in those countries is at 0%. That's the real joke. Truth is, ADAK's testing regime is now better than Western countries because they're catching no one.
In the UK there is a whereabouts system where for one hour every single day you have to say in advance where you will be to be available for testing.
Any system like that in Kenya!
Should be banned from international competition.
GoingToAGoGo wrote:
Let's get back on topic.
How low do you guys think the dude can go at the Abu Dhabi marathon in December,; 2:04, 2:03:30, 2:03 ?
Abu Dhabi must be going frantic finding some pacers right now, a good time would make a splash for that inaugural race !
2:01:30 WR
ukathleticscoach wrote:
El Keniano wrote:
The report that confirms doping in Kenya is neither systemic nor institutionalised?
http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9031596https://drive.google.com/viewerng/viewer?url=https://www.wada-ama.org/sites/default/files/final_public_report_on_kenya.pdfhttps://www.kenyans.co.ke/news/33532-doping-kenya-not-systemic-wadaLet's talk about the near non-existent busts in North America and Western Europe that would have you believe that doping levels in those countries is at 0%. That's the real joke. Truth is, ADAK's testing regime is now better than Western countries because they're catching no one.
In the UK there is a whereabouts system where for one hour every single day you have to say in advance where you will be to be available for testing.
Any system like that in Kenya!
Should be banned from international competition.
Yes!...there is now!
And how do we know that the wherabouts system is being enforced all the time there in the pristine UK? Huh?
Mzungu in Iten wrote:
It really depends on several factors.
1.Weather (might be too hot, might be humid, might be almost perfect)
2.Pacers (i'm sure they will get some good ones)
3.Competition(same as above)
4.How well he recovers after the biggest effort of his life in Valencia.
Note: The ambassador for the inaugural Abu Dhabi Marathon is Paul Tergat. They have the money and the knowledge of Paul. What will be different than in Dubai is that they will have both Ethiopian and Kenyan elite athletes. In Dubai there are only ethiopians. I'm sure Kiptum will also have a lofty appearance fee.
I for one really expect big things from this race. Will be the race of the month, better than Fukuoka in my opinion.
Yeah, all good points. Not sure about Kiptum's appearance fee since that would have been negotiated before Valencia but maybe a little bonus ;-) I'm a bit worried about the competition since we only have Feysa Lelisa so far ? Still time to get some guys I suppose but all the big names have run other marathons. Adola dropped was a DNS in Frankfurt, maybe he can recover for Abu Dabi ? And what's up with Stanley Biwott ?
How Now Brown Cow wrote:
ukathleticscoach wrote:
In the UK there is a whereabouts system where for one hour every single day you have to say in advance where you will be to be available for testing.
Any system like that in Kenya!
Should be banned from international competition.
Yes!...there is now!
And how do we know that the wherabouts system is being enforced all the time there in the pristine UK? Huh?
In fairness, Kenya has only had facilities to test blood for a matter of weeks.
It hasn't really had enough time to take any effect. Oh, and there's still the option of hiding in the mountains when you're glowing.