Looks like Jim Walmsley is running a mountain race tomorrow - predictions?

Indeed, that runner must be an OK person if he has enemies like that.

Running to the buffett...... wrote:

You numbnuts are hilarious. You post how SLOW ultra guys are to real runners (marathoners) but then you accuse them of peds when they dominate the so called no competition ultras.

^This!

Headlines wrote:

letsbereal wrote:

I think if this guy is as good as people say as he needs to ditch the ultra running and focus on the Marathon, if hes not PEDing, then he can hit OTQ easily. The issue is PEDs aren't even tested for for crap in Ultra running which is why its flooded with cheaters.

hes not ditching it but will try to pull a Sage and compete for 2020 oly marathon trials but will actually do well like Tim, David and Max in 2015-2016. if Jim stays consistent and injury free his biggest years will be 2018-2019. Probably with a Comrades win and a 2:10+ road marathon on US soil. So, maybe 2016 will be UTMB win, WS win.

Not sure he can get the WS 100 win and the UTMB win in 2016?

As for The 'Rades. I would love to see Jim go to SA because he will always be up against a strong deep field, but I am not willing to just give him the win. He sure could win it but the win is not going to come as easy as Terawara.

Comrades seems right up his alley though, more so than any 100s.

As for The 'Rades. I would love to see Jim go to SA because he will always be up against a strong deep field, but I am not willing to just give him the win. He sure could win it but the win is not going to come as easy as Terawara.[/quote]

Post-race interview

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej866i9T_Cw

Okay zzzz,but you assume your 'percent back' comparison is a constant 21% from 26.2 to 62-miles. women may start to close this discrepancy the long ultras, thus my comparison with the IAAU World 100k where winner Camille was only 10% behind winner Buud.So what you say about Flaherty's 2:22 marathon PB, or Buud's 2:22 marathon PB? we can say Walmsley's performance at Terawera was *only worth* something a 2:18 marathoner can do, but he also finished really far ahead of those guys. There are dozens in the US alone that can run 2:18. Would most of these guys be able to keep stride with Walmsley in an ultra then? I don't think so. Others are right in that Walmsley hasn't won over any established, competitive ultra runners save for Buud, but his margins of victory and CRs have been HUUGE.Does anyone know why he was discharged from AF early?

zzzz wrote:

reed wrote:

As for Camille Herron's many marathon times around 2:49 from the last few years, I doubt those were big target races for her. Did she win most of those? People who are trying to run marathon PRs don't typically run that many per year.

No disagreement here. I just think that that's a good guess for her fitness now, and that's what I wanted to use for a percent-back comparison with Walmsley for this weekend's race. She probably did win all those marathons that I listed (except OTs), and was not going for a PR in them, but the same could be said for the race the other day.

Factoid,

You don't seem to follow the sport closely. Buud is a 15:00 5K runner and Flaherty is barely a sub-14:50 guy. Walmsley is a 13:50 guy. Night and day talent and ability. Even Sage is barely a 14:30 guy, which is why Walmsley average 7:03/mi over the same trails that Sage averaged 8:00/mi.

The CRs and margin of victories should be HUGE because no HUGE talents have really run trails - other than Hawks, Gray, Wacker, and Smyth.

When more sub-14:00 guys start showing up you'll realize that you standard was too low and your expectations dismal.

Call me an old school ultra dood, but I still believe that track 5km PBs aren't the most important predictor of ultra trail race times for 100k to 100mi. Shouldn't marathon times be a better correlation? Do David Laney and Max King not fit your model then? both also 14:00 5k runners. Great ultra runners. But they don't destroy course records and win by large margins over slower, 2:22 marathoners. Sage has a 2:16 marathon PB. He's all over the place with inconsistency in ultras. Long hilly trails are the great equalizer. You want to talk about HUGE talent in ultra running? How about Zach Miller over Hawks at 50 miles?

co wrote:

Factoid,

You don't seem to follow the sport closely. Buud is a 15:00 5K runner and Flaherty is barely a sub-14:50 guy. Walmsley is a 13:50 guy. Night and day talent and ability. Even Sage is barely a 14:30 guy, which is why Walmsley average 7:03/mi over the same trails that Sage averaged 8:00/mi.

The CRs and margin of victories should be HUGE because no HUGE talents have really run trails - other than Hawks, Gray, Wacker, and Smyth.

When more sub-14:00 guys start showing up you'll realize that you standard was too low and your expectations dismal.

Zach vs Miller - Zach's win was more than talent. His determination was incredible. I think he could have beat Walmsley that day if he was in the race.

Factoid, once again, you show your lack of understanding of the sport.

Zach Miller vs Hayden Hawks was an experienced veteran versus a rookie. It was Hawks' first 50 miler. Look how much Walmsley learned in his first season after running 50 milers. You expected Hawks to absolutely destroy Miller? I didn't, nor did the community and it was that experienced that resulted in Miller pulling away the last 10km. I think, as you pointed out, Walms took 30+ min off his Lake Sonoma time one year after the other. You know what that is? EXPERIENCE.

If you were close to something like Michael Jordan was in basketball, finding success and winning, why would you want to switch to baseball?

We saw how that went for Jordan.

Why would Walmsley want to try to go into marathoning? It would be like Jordan going to baseball. Walmsley would maybe become a 2:16 marathoner at first, very good but still a minor leaguer. No guarantee he would get closer to the top.

He may know where he stands talent wise. Its not like he just started running yesterday. He put in effort before, went to footlocker, and may have seen that he would have a hard time competing at the top in the more competitive track and road racing events.

He is likely doing better and finding more success where he is now as an ultra runner than he would be as a 2:16 marathoner.

These boards are some proof of that. No one talks about 2:16 marathoners on these boards. More posts about Walmsley than any 2:16 marathoner.

With the exception of another 2:16 marathoner Canaday. (he gets attention on here partially because he posts on here). That guy will likely tell you that he gets more attention and is finding more success as a ultrarunner than as a 2:16 marathoner. Or perhaps he sees more potential upside for his talent level in ultrarunning than marathoning.

Not everyone wants to become POTUS, many are happy/happier as a mayor.

I don't think there is anybody in the world that can do a runnable trail ultra faster than Walmsley right now. The dude is top notch, and he knows it. If he keeps this up for a year or two, and definitely if he succeeds at running sub 14 at Western States, he will be the greatest of all time. I mean 14 hours is 46 minutes faster than a course record set on an exceptionally cool day. Breaking a course record at a race as prestigious at western by 46 minutes would be... I don't even know... But we'll see. I'm stoked to see him take on Kilian and run some more international races. He's supposed to race UTMB in August—not his usual type of race. I can't wait to see what happens.

co wrote:

Factoid, once again, you show your lack of understanding of the sport.

Zach Miller vs Hayden Hawks was an experienced veteran versus a rookie. It was Hawks' first 50 miler. Look how much Walmsley learned in his first season after running 50 milers. You expected Hawks to absolutely destroy Miller? I didn't, nor did the community and it was that experienced that resulted in Miller pulling away the last 10km. I think, as you pointed out, Walms took 30+ min off his Lake Sonoma time one year after the other. You know what that is? EXPERIENCE.

Son, I've followed this sport closely for most of the past decade.

I've keenly watched the 'fast road runners' and the 'track stars' come into the sport over the last 6-8 years. There have been plenty. Always big hype, but none have totally dominated on the long trails. The talented guys, the sub 2:20 marathoners, the sub 14 5k runners, they do very well. They often debut well.

But then Zach Miller beats them. Killian beats them. Some 'slow' 2:30 marathoner beats them.

I've read about how 3:45 1500m and 1:05 half marathon runner Rob Krar and 2:16 marathoner Canaday (both experienced in ultras at the time) got taken down by Zach Miller at The Lake Sonoma 50 mile in a close kick finish. I've seen 2:14 marathoner and world mountain champion Max King lead Western States nearly to the River and then fade. The hills, the ultra distance, it has always traditionally been a great equalizer. Now what makes Jim so different? Altitude training? No he ran and lived at Air Force.

There is 'experience' to be gained, but most do not show such large improvement in such a short time as Jim as shown. I see a talent like Hayden Hawks improving with experience, but he is not improving his PB at North Face by 30 or even 20 minutes.

Factoid, I'm probably older than you with more Top 10 finishes in US Champs in the MUT world. You just don't get it. There is inconsistency because of the nature of the events - long distances that involve different energy systems and a ton can go wrong. You've obviously never gone out at 3:30 split for 50k on a 100km trail run, have you?

Max King is "king" for a reason. The dude doesn't specialize his training. No one else on the planet can win a 100km and turn around and run an 8:30 Steeplechase. That's why he's inconsistent in ultras. Because of his training. He has not shot at Western because he dedicates 6-8 weeks max to the effort, not a lifetime like a Rob Krar or Tim Olson. He tries to be a Jack of all Trades... which is why kudos to Walmsley right now. I see him dropping several amazing road guys that have run 2:13-2:15 in the marathon. He can run with anyone right now minus the guys like Rupp, Ward, etc. I truly believe he would debut in a 2:12 or so in the right race with the right build-up, but he has found his niche, and that's what it is, a niche.

Sage has also fallen apart because of a lack of focus. He tried to burn the candle on both ends - trying to chase an arbitrary Olympic Trials dream of qualifying which jeopardized his ultra career. He's lost his climbing ability and his ability to burn fats past 40 miles. The results show it. You can't try and do both. That's why I love guys like Joe Gray. He focuses 100% on being the best mountain runner in the world. He doesn't mess with ultras or marathons or roads... just the hardest races he can find and compete in.

Someone with a singular focus like Zach Miller will always be dangerous. He has the hunger and desire to hurt and he holds that ambition within himself to unleash on race day. Always watch out for the guy that disappears off the radar, trains his @ss off, and then shows up ready to race and hungry.

Walmsley has figured out how to train to win. He doesn't over-race (prudent about not lining up at TNF) and he redlines the over-training aspect. Listen, he has a tight window. He won't be great forever. No one ever is ,but right now he's on a roll so appreciate it and stop being "wowed" by some improvement you've never experienced in your lifetime.

Great job by Camille. Jaguar1 is baaaack!

Factoid wrote:

Okay zzzz,

but you assume your 'percent back' comparison is a constant 21% from 26.2 to 62-miles. women may start to close this discrepancy the long ultras, thus my comparison with the IAAU World 100k where winner Camille was only 10% behind winner Buud.

So what you say about Flaherty's 2:22 marathon PB, or Buud's 2:22 marathon PB?

we can say Walmsley's performance at Terawera was *only worth* something a 2:18 marathoner can do, but he also finished really far ahead of those guys. There are dozens in the US alone that can run 2:18. Would most of these guys be able to keep stride with Walmsley in an ultra then? I don't think so.

Your comparisons lack thinking. First of all, women don't close the distance with men in ultras. Here are some difference in WRs in track and road and some competitive ultra CRs:

100 meters 9.5%

1500 meters 11.7%

5000 meters 12.4%

10000 meters 11.4%

10 mile road 12.8%

half marathon 11.5%

marathon 10.1%

Comrades up direction 11.4%

Comrades down direction 13.7%

UTMB 12.0%

Western States 100 17.8%

Do you realize that Buud is a masters runner? He turns 43 next month and was 41 in that 100K worlds. Both Buud and Camille Herron are physically beyond their best years, but Buud is further beyond. If Buud's marathon PR is as you say, their lifetime marathon PRs are 10.5% different, so her finishing 10% behind him in a race seems reasonable. Walmsley is obviously in his prime. As ultras become more competitive, the masters dudes will have to be Lagat- or Meb-like talents to keep up beyond their primes in the most competitive races.

I'm not saying that any 2:18 runner could match Walmsley's Tarawera effort. You saying so would be making the false jump between marathon and 100+K trail ultras that I avoided by making the comparison with Camille, and what I think her fitness probably is at the moment. That 2:18 runner would have to be as good or better at ultras than he is at marathons, and specifically trained in doing hilly ultras. You aren't going to find a 2:18 marathoner more suited and well trained for ultras than the 2016 (North American) Ultra Runner of the Year Walmsley.

co wrote:

Sage has also fallen apart because of a lack of focus. He tried to burn the candle on both ends - trying to chase an arbitrary Olympic Trials dream of qualifying which jeopardized his ultra career. He's lost his climbing ability and his ability to burn fats past 40 miles. The results show it. You can't try and do both. That's why I love guys like Joe Gray. He focuses 100% on being the best mountain runner in the world. He doesn't mess with ultras or marathons or roads... just the hardest races he can find and compete in.

Yes, this is true about Sage. Sage was actually consistently very good in his first several years of doing ultras. He was in discussion for ultra runner of the year at least one year, and missed mainly because of the bias towards 100 mile races. He did distract himself trying to get that marathon qualifier in the last year plus. More significantly, he has been doing WAY LESS mileage than he did when he was training for marathons with Hansons. Something like 90 mpw vs 120+mpw.

He puts a ton of time in his other activities like coaching and his youtube channel. There's nothing wrong putting a lot of priority or value in those activities because they will matter when he eventually retires as a pro runner. But his training has obviously been impacted.

Sage was a monster climber in 2012. He ran 58:27 at the Mt. Washington Road Race in 2012. That was the 3rd fastest ever run at the time, maybe the best American time at the time. He dropped the field, including Joe Gray, by 2 miles in that race. Then he ran 1:03:39 in 2013, and 1:01:30 in 2014. Even at 1:01:30, that's 3 minutes slower in an hour than his 2012 time. How many minutes per hour was he running behind Walmsley at Western States last year? Probably in that ballpark.

Not sure you actually follow the sport or just read results? In 2012 the top 2 guys at mt. Washington were coming off of serious injuries. Blake and Gray. Sage won handily, however the following 2 times Sage went there, Gray beat him by a LOOONG ways and so did Blake.

So, I wouldn't say Sage is so good as much as I'd say in 2012 a lot of top mountain runners were injured and or coming off of tough races. Sage is good when there is nobody in the race and he is not challenged, just like Walmsley. I'd say Gray, King and Miller are the only racers who consistently line up and compete at big events against major comp. Walmsley won tarawera thankfully fast, but by no means did he beat any top guys. Buud is much older, also coming off injury and is not a trail runner. He runs road ultras folks!

Sage has won against some pretty stacked fields before. 2014 TNF 50? Sage definitely over-raced in 2013 and 2014, which probably contributed to his less competitive Mt. Washington race times. We'll see what happens this year, he's said that he's going to try and push the envelope with his training.