Silas Kiplagat-Mystery Man

Poker wrote:

I've looked at your data before. I've also looked at your claim that Kenyans can not break 3:32 naturally without EPO. OK bud, I'm sure running hundreds of miles before the age of 14 and being born at altitude would not allow one, just one, athlete from running within 2.5 seconds of Cram, Coe 10-20 years later. Those guys were so good that they could never be replicated, approached, or heavens forbid surpassed. Not like a 6'5'' guy from Vermont within 4 years of training, or a 20 year old Australian kid could run under that 3:32 limit placed on Kenyans. But, yes, dozens of poor Kenyans with everything in the world to run for and running as a hugely popular pasttime could never achieve this accomplishment. Or they all have access to EPO, which is very affordable and taken with all ugali meals.

Can you admit that the times we have seen since cca 2007 are finally reasonable and believable? And that middle distances haven't really improved at all, even after 25 years of "African domination"? A Kenyan running 3:29 25 years after the first European reached this mark is something that I can accept without any hesitation.

Czech guy wrote:

I am only saying that without EPO, they couldn't get under 3:32. Think about it.

Czech guy later wrote: A Kenyan running 3:29 25 years after the first European reached this mark is something I can accept without hesitation.

Czech guy, you are an idiot. So what are you saying? That Kenyans used to need EPO to run under 3:32, and now they don't?

I'm not disagreeing with the logic that 5000s are more important and raced more often than 3000s. The point is, they ALWAYS HAVE BEEN, including in the mid-late 90's.

The question is, why can't they approach the times now that they did in the 90's, when in both eras 5000s are run MUCH MORE OFTEN than 3000s?

LOL. Kenyans and IAAF have conspired to aid kenyans by not reporting postive drug testing results.Either Kenyans are the smartest runners in the world or Americans, Russians, Jamaicans and all the victims of postive drug testing are the dumbest in the whole world.

'The question is, why can't they approach the times now that they did in the 90's, when in both eras 5000s are run MUCH MORE OFTEN than 3000s?'

That's a fair point but you are just concentrating on one event. Most of the top times for the steepleshase were set after the test was introduced

I don't want to contest your theory. Nobody can be sure about the fact if an athlete is clean or not, exactly like nobo0dy can be sure that you are not a thief. I want only to remind that YOU MUST PROVE TO BE INNOCENT WHEN ACCUSED, but without any accusation, is the PROSECUTOR that has to prove he is guilty.

Anyway, that's not the point.

I want only explain several other reasons, because the most important density of results is in the period 95-01.

1) In every event, and in every sport, there are cycles. Sometimes we have extra-class athelets, sometimes not. We are still speaking about Coppi and Merckx in cycling, about Mohamad Ali and Sugar Robinson in boxing, about Bjorn Daehli in cross skiing. Who was the number one ? There are speculations about it, but NEVER is possible to have a clear and objective answer. The history of T & F is full of athletes able to overtake the mental limits of the moment : look at the chronology of WR.

100m : 37 years for an improvement of 0.16 (from 9.95 of Hines in altitude (OG in Mexixo '88) to Maurice Green 9.79 in 1999, remaining till 2005 - and 5 years (including 2010) for improving of 0.21 (till Bolt 9.58)

200m : 11 years for moving from 19.83 (Tommie Smith, 68) to 19.72 (Pietro Mennea, 79) with 0.11 of improvement - 17 years for improving, thru 2 different races, of 0.40 (Michael Johnson, 19.66 and 19.32 in 1996) -

400m : 20 years for improvement of 0.57 (Lee Evans, 43.86 in '68, to Butch Reynolds, 43.29 in '88, still 2nd performace all time 22 years later)

800m : From Wooderson (1:48.4 in '38) a big jump to Rudolf Harbig (1:46.6, increasing of 1.8, in '39). From Harbig, 16 years till Rogers Moen (1:45.7 in '55) for an improvement of 0.9. In one solution, improvement of 1.4 from Peter Snell ('62), and after this 17 years with an improvement of 0.9 only (Juantorena 1:43.4, till '79).

1500m : A period lasting 14 years (from '43 with Haegg, Strand and Lueg at 3:43.0 till Salsola and Salonen 3:40.2 in '57) with an improvement of 2.8. In one year, improvement of 4.2 due to the phenomen Herbert Elliot (3:36.0 when was 20y). Other exceptional jump with Jim Ryun (2.5 in one competition, from 3:35.6 till 3:33.1 when was 20), with the first runners under 3:30 in 1985 (already EPO ?). Who knows athletics, knows that Elliot and Ryun were athletes of unbelievable potential, ending their career very early, because at that time T & F was not professional. The same athletes, in the athletics of today, can last 10 years more, running 5-7 seconds faster (and don't forget that rabbits were not allowed).

3000m : Kip Keino was able to better the WR of 6.4 running 7:39.6 in '65, exactly 22 days after the WR of Siegfried Herrman (7:46.0), that improved the WR of Michel Jazy (7:49.0) after 43 days only. So, in the period of about 2 months, the WR moved from 7:49.2 to 7:39.6, bettered 3 times by 3 different athletes. The improvement of Komen (from 7:25.11 to 7:20.67) has about the same coefficient of improvement (also if I accept the idea that, for this type of distances, EPO can work : look at all the ER of Mourhit, 7:26.62, 12:49.71 and 26:52.30, and his victories in WCCCh, CASUALLY BEATING KENYANS (somebody can suppose the talent of Mourhit was the same of the Kenyans he beated ?).

5000m : In the period '54 - '57 there was an improvement of 22" (from 13:57.2 of Zatopek '54 till 13:35.0 of Vladimir Kuts in a "solo" in Rome '57), with 5 different runners : Zatopek, Kuts, Chataway, Iharos and Pirie. After, there was the period of Ron Clarke and Keino in '65 : with 4 records in the season, they increased of 10"8 (from 13'35" to 13'24"2). And, after this, directly Clarke improved of 7"6 next year, running 13'16"6. We needed to wait 12 years for the same improvement (Rono 13'08"4 in '78), and after this, in 17 years (till '95), several athletes (Moorcroft, Aouita twice, Gebrselassie and Kiptanui) had the same improvement (till 12'55"30). Immediately after the WCh of Goteborg, Gebre had an unbelievable jump : 12'44"39 (almost 11" better than Kiptanui) in Zurich. The question is : having run 12'56"96 on 4th of June and 12'44"39 on 16th of August, he was under EPO the second time only ?

400 HS : What about Edwin Moses ? Do you think was doped, or SIMPLY WAS A PHENOMEN not only as talent, but as organiser of his life looking for athletics ?

POLE : What about Bubka ? Was the only doped (looking at the difference between him and all the others), or he had different specific talent ?

LONG : What about Beamon (improvement in one competition from 8.35 to 8.90, 55cm) ?

So, we need to accept that athletes like Gebre and Bekele, like El Guerrouj and Komen, like Michael Johnson and Bolt, like Bubka and Zelezny, like Al Oerter and Daley Thompson, cannot born every year, and, when they go to athletics with full focus and good training, can give their print to long period of activity.

2) The problem of rabbits. I have a direct experience about it, because, for the period of 3 years (2004-05-06) with Shaheen, ALL THE ORGANISERS ASKED US TO TRY THE WR (also when the shape was only 80%) giving the best rabbits possible for this attempt. Rabbits are too much important when you look for a WR. For example, the shape of Shaheen in 2006 (in Zurich) was very much better than when he beated the WR in 2004 in Bruxelles, but the rabbits were no more of the same level. During 2004 and 2005, there were professional rabbits (the French Le Dauphine as first, sometimes Vroemen of Luis Miguel Martin as second) able running about 8'05" maintaining a very even pace, and Shaheen needed it till 1800m (never they arrived till 2000m in front). In 2006 all these athletes disappeared or lost their shape (in Bruxelles 2006, we knew 30' before the meeting that the rabbits were not ready).

In the period '92-'02, there were rabbits absolutely perfects : William Tanui (previously Olympic Champion of 800m !) for 1500m (El Guerrouj needed 2'46" - 2'47" for the first 1200m), Martin Keino for 3000m / 5000m (he was able to run in front 6 laps in 60", running 6' for 2400m at perfect pace), and somebody else as first pacer.

I remember a top Kenyan (Malakwen) able running 1'44" in 800m, that decided to be professional rabbit for 1500m : I saw this guy running ALONE several times in 2'47" the first 1200m.

Of course, if El Guerrouj tried to beat the WR (and this happened many times, for several years, and before was the same with Morceli), ALL THE OTHER ATHLETES COULD HAVE A FAST PACE, using the same El Guerrouj as referement. This is the technical reason because Ngeny and Lagat were able to run under 3'30" a lot of times.

The organisers, at the moment, ask for pacers for times about 2'50" in 1200m, that it means a final time of 3'32" about, knowing that, at the moment, there are not athletes able to attack any record, and this provokes races slower than the past. In Monaco, the organiser asked (looking for a time under 3'30" from Choge and Laalou) to put the rabbit (Collins Cheboi) only till 1100m, because he can run at a pace for 2'48" in 1200 very well till 100m before, but we were not sure about his possibility to reach 1200m at the same speed. So, because the pacing was very good, and Choge was fully motivated in trying to run fast, finally the race could produce results as some year ago.

About 5000m, the situation is the same : with Bekele (and, before, Gebre or Komen) trying to beat a WR, there were rabbits going for 7'37" in the first 3000m. Now, the only race like this was the first meeting in Doha, when Simotwo was first rabbit in 7'40".

One of the reasons because now it's difficult to find rabbits of the same level of before, is the lack of money in the last period. A top rabbit in the period '95-'02, for an attempt of WR, could receive more than 10,000 USD. Now, we are about 1,500 USD, so who is good is not available. At the same time, also the official prizes of Diamond League are, today, very much smaller than before. Who was n. 9-11 in the 5000m of Oslo (running under 13') received a prize of 200 USD....

When you speak about results, you must know everything about the World of Athletics. You have the idea that, like 50 years ago, the athletes can run for the glory only, but is not true. This is a professional activity ONLY if there is the possibility to produce some good income, for a reasonable period of time. When you have to train a full season, you are able running 3'35" when are very young, and you finish the season with 3,000 USD, the next year you quit any motivation, and you lose your focus. This is the athletics of today, and I'm sorry for this, but, in a period of general crisis, there is nothing to do.

How I already wrote in another message, tha activity for the athletes cannot be divided by the normal situations of their life. It's not a case of EPO, it's a case of opportunities, that today are very much less than before.

'So, presumably Sebastian Coe could not get under 3:32 without EPO'

and what about El G - 5'9 and 130lb he's got the build of a Kenyan

ukathleticscoach wrote:

'The question is, why can't they approach the times now that they did in the 90's, when in both eras 5000s are run MUCH MORE OFTEN than 3000s?'

That's a fair point but you are just concentrating on one event. Most of the top times for the steepleshase were set after the test was introduced

Well I did already outline the 1500 and mile as well:

For the top 1500 times (3:30.0 or under)

So 33/73 in 6 years of EPO on the market with no test

VS

31/73 in 10 years of EPO test announced as a deterrent

And if you Pull El G out since he dominates the list, 8 of the top 10 times ever by a non El G runner were run in the 6 years of 1995-2000 and the other 2 of that top 10 were run by Lagat who flagged a positive test for EPO.

As for the mile, it's more extreme for the top times ever (3:48.0 or under):

17/31 in 6 years of EPO on the market (1995-2000)

VS

4/31 in the last 10 years of better training, equipment, tracks, nutrition etc.

Furthermore;

*top 2 times in history between 1995 and 2000

*8 of top 10 times in history between 1995 and 2000

It's certainly not as if they stopped running the mile or 1500 abrubtly in after 2000, but the fact remains that 8 of the top 10 times ever for the mile were run in a 6 year period that coincides with 6 years of EPO without a test, and 8 of the top 10 times EVER for any non El G mark for 1500.

And for the 3000 it was 17 out of the top 20 during this period.

The 3 guys who managed to run insanely fast times after 2000 were Lagat, El G & Bekele.

Lagat had a problem with a positive EPO test.

El G had a problem with a training partner having a positive test, as well as fellow former countryman Ramzi and being Morrocan a handful of other top countrymen with positive results.

Bekele has had nothing to my knowledge.

Keep in mind that 2000 was only the announcement of a test however, not a test that could actually catch people effectively. The rumor that a certain top Kenyan runner was busted by the surprise test at Barcelona and basically said OK, you're done, go quietly to save the face of the sport may have had a large impact in terms of scare factor in Kenya. It may not have scared off every runner who learned how to actually beat the test though, or perhaps it made runners more conservative in their use of it. Or as some have suggested, prolonged use loses it's total benefit.

All we know is a lot of great Kenyans dissappeared:

Kipketer, Komen & Ngeny to name a few.

Best times and WRs in 1999-2000

Best times and WRs in 1997-2000

Best tims and WR's 1996-1998

Yes I know the story of Noahs car crash and it very well may be true, however I have never heard of more top distance runners from any other country getting in car accidents then Kenya. I think you could take the total amount of car accidents from top runners around the world and it wouldn't equal the amount of car accidents that top kenyan runners get in. Maybe that is simply coincidence, just something that I thought was a little strange.

a fair question wrote:Yes I know the story of Noahs car crash and it very well may be true, however I have never heard of more top distance runners from any other country getting in car accidents then Kenya. I think you could take the total amount of car accidents from top runners around the world and it wouldn't equal the amount of car accidents that top kenyan runners get in. Maybe that is simply coincidence, just something that I thought was a little strange.

i suggest you go look at the roads outside of mombasa & nairobi...

ventolin^3 wrote:

a fair question wrote:Yes I know the story of Noahs car crash and it very well may be true, however I have never heard of more top distance runners from any other country getting in car accidents then Kenya. I think you could take the total amount of car accidents from top runners around the world and it wouldn't equal the amount of car accidents that top kenyan runners get in. Maybe that is simply coincidence, just something that I thought was a little strange.

i suggest you go look at the roads outside of mombasa & nairobi...

How would those roads compare to the roads in Mexico, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Brazil? It's not like driving is super safe in Japan, China, Korea and many parts of Europe.

I'm not saying that it's like driving in Canada, but just that for some reason Kenya has all these car accidents with their top runners, and I really think it's more than the rest of the world combined.

Maybe it's purely coincidence, but like I said I just thought it was strange.

a fair question wrote:How would those roads compare to the roads in Mexico, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Brazil?

how many of those countries provide 1'43 & 3'29 guys ???

Mr. Canova,

I really appreciate your post (as always) and thought you made some very good points.

It is certainly understandable that with less money for rabbits, the quality of rabbits goes down and as a result so does the probability of WR attempts. That does make obvious and logical sense. That holds weight to at least a certain extent.

Another point you made is that the amount a runner gets paid for being on the deep list in Kenya as a 3:33 guy or 3:35 guy has gone down so that those guys may give up qicker now (quit the sport early and thus not realize if they can run under 3:30). Again, that does make obvious and logical sense and hold some weight.

However, along that theme you also mentioned that this is the primary reason they run. It is for money, and not glory. If that is the very reason they lose heart and quit, and the very reason that many who achieve success and money also give up and quit (they feel they've earned enough) then wouldn't that also be the big motivator to do something to put you in the position to make more money? I'm not saying they all do it or anything like that, but lets face it there is A LOT of corruption and cheating in Kenyan culture. Runners run for money, EPO helps you get more money. It just seems a little strange that in a society full of corruption, and running is one of the best means of becoming the wealthy elite, and PEDs can help take you there, the top runners have a moral compass that is different than the rest of their society and simply run clean or quit because they do not believe they can be fast enough (meaning they basically choose a life of poverty) and will not take something to help them become wealthy.

I don't mean to suggest that I think that every top kenyan is/was using EPO or other PEDs.

Like I said you have made some valid points and I agree with them. The fact that Morhit was able to romp Kenyans and ethiopians in cross country to me does suggest that the E. Africans in that race were not on EPO.

But that doesn't mean that none have/are. I mean if I grew up in Kenya where corruption was common place, where I had to pay off police officers, where I slept on the dirt, and I was a 3:33/13:04 guy who had the opportunity to get my family from dirt poor to wealthy elite by taking PEDs and going to 3:27-3:28/12:45, what exactly would stop me from doing that? Most westerners can't understand what an opportunity that is. As far as ethics, it's no more than having your accountant get creative or skimming a little cash off the top of your business, except the rewards are a hundredfold.

Side note,in America the primary reason for running is still for pride and glory, which is why we have so many 2nd tier guys still running 13:3X or 28:1X or finishing 5th or 10th in domestic road races years after college, living a poor and humble life style chasing the dream rather than hanging it up and using their degree to pursue a strong income in the land of opportunity. This is precisely the opposite of the situation in Kenya, which is why the American runners using PEDS is a completely different argument. If you are running for pride and glory over money, you would have to be delusional and able to lie to yourself, family and friends to cheat to get that "glory". Not saying it's impossible or doesn't happen, but it would happen for different reasons and would be a contradiction to the purpose of it. Whearas doing whatever it takes to for the sake of money is not contradictory.

ventolin^3 wrote:

a fair question wrote:How would those roads compare to the roads in Mexico, Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Eritrea, Brazil?

how many of those countries provide 1'43 & 3'29 guys ???

So you have to run 1:43 or 3:29 to get into a car accident?

Plenty of Chinese and Japanese runners out there.

Plenty of Eritrean, Ethiopian, Mexican, Ugandan, Tanzanian, Morrocan, Bahrainian etc. etc. etc.

If a 13:3X or 2:11 gets into a real car accident you will hear about it here, the point is we mostly hear about it happening with Kenyans.

you are clueless

those countries produce shit 1'45/1'46, 3'35/3'36 guys at elite level

they were hardly noticed when they competed & will be even less noticed if they disappear from the scene thru an rta or somesuch

& NO, we woudn't hear much, if anything if some 13'30+ or 2"11 guy from some 3rd world shithole disappears because of an accident ( unless it actually KILLS him - then there is morbid fascination factor )

[quote]ventolin^3 wrote:

you are clueless

those countries produce shit 1'45/1'46, 3'35/3'36 guys at elite level

they were hardly noticed when they competed & will be even less noticed if they disappear from the scene thru an rta or somesuch

& NO, we woudn't hear much, if anything if some 13'30+ or 2"11 guy from some 3rd world shithole disappears because of an accident ( unless it actually KILLS him - then there is morbid fascination factor )[/quote

You've gone straight to emotional, a logical discussion is beyond you now. You lost me when you claimed Eritrea, Ethiopia (along with others) were chumps at the elite level of running.

nope

it's because you post drivel & have nonsensical analysis ability & seem to be blissfully unaware of the fact

when ethiopia/eritrea produce 1'43 or 3'29 guys, then i'll happily elevate them to non-chumps

ventolin^3 wrote:

nope

it's because you post drivel & have nonsensical analysis ability & seem to be blissfully unaware of the fact

when ethiopia/eritrea produce 1'43 or 3'29 guys, then i'll happily elevate them to non-chumps

Or you could acknowledge that 3000, two mile, 5000, 10000, half marathon and marathon runners are also runners.

Kenya will continue to win, your boys and girls will continue holding the tail. You can argue day and night about all the nonsense you can think of. Talk of the little tiny crap nothing is going to take away from the hard work, dedication and committment that kenyan runners put in day in and day out. Lol, these people are frustrated of loosing races to kenyans all the time. The best is yet to come. Kenyans are going to joke under 3.30s time and time again. Brace yourselves for more pain bc new faces are going to emerge and they will break your souls once again. I understand your pain. why on earth can small, tiny , poor country who don't have roads , live in trees, eat leaves and wear no clothes take down develop, rich, civilize countries? Well, you need to be a kalenjin and akenyan to understand the motivation behind the success. You can claim you know this and that and this and that. You don't know squad. You can chot down all the stats from the begin of running to date but it will not help you. You can claim you are a tactician on racing, well if you were you would be helping all the westerners catch the Kenyans. The point is, Kenyans have the talent in running like canadians have the talent in ice hockey. If you claim otherwise, you are an idiot and a hater who don't like getting beat by guys who don't have training facilities and resources like you do. You still going to get beat anyway.

You've missed a lot with that statement.

A LOT.

Nobody who understands physiology even A LITTLE would argue that Kenyans were not made for running. This doesn't have to do with why can't westerners beat kenyans.

It has to do with why could Kenyans in 1995-2000 absolutely slaughter kenyans from 1990-1994 and in fact, from 2001 to 2010? Why can't kenyans NOW beat kenyans from 1997???

This you have failed to address.