RE: Does Galen Rupp really have a shot at winning a medal in Berlin?

outliner wrote:

Liking where Rupps at wrote:

FYI Birmingham is the one that Chelanga beat in the 10K when he went 27:28, Daba (2 seconds behind Bekele) is the one that Rupp took to the wire indoors:

1 DABA Bekana adidas 13:17.89

2 RUPP Galen Oregon 13:18.12

Everybody's favorite game. Six degrees of Galen Rupp.

Because there are how many degrees of separation between Rupp and Daba? Fine if you simply don't want Rupp to run fast, but he had Daba scared in that 5K and daba has now run 13:06 in 2008 and 13:02 and 13:06 in 2009. Plus he won Carlsbad.

13:17 indoors is pretty relevant to a 13:02-13:06 outdoors in Europe don't you think?

Need some help? Look at the fastest indoor marks ever, and then look at what those guys did outdoors. Hate all you want but this stuff is pretty simple to see.

Liking where Rupps at wrote:

13:17 indoors is pretty relevant to a 13:02-13:06 outdoors in Europe don't you think?

Yes, which is why Paul Kip Koech had an indoor best of 13:09 and an outdoor best of 13:11. Or Doug Padilla's 13:20 converted to so many 13:05's in Europe(not even close).

Need more help? Lets look at it another way. If 13:17 indoors converts to 13:02 in Europe(-15 secs) than it would follow that over 1 mile, 1/3 of the distance, it is worth -5 seconds. That puts German Fernandez's 3:55 at 3:50 in Europe. That would have placed him 3rd in the Dream Mile. Not bad for an 18 year old kid.

Get off rupps nutsack please. He's not going to medal. ALMOST beating daba doesn't = 13:05 or guarantee a medal. If that's the case daba even has a GREATER chance at medaling in the 10k which I seriously doubt.

Nice, you found 2 out of the top, what, 20 that aren't substantially faster outdoors? The fact that you are even trying to make that an argument destroyed all credibility you were working on. I like how you are actually trying to argue agains Rupp, who proves every hater wrong time and time again.

You think it's a stretch that Rupp could run 13:05 in europe right now? Get real.

I agree. Rupp is easily in 13:05 or better shape. I'm not going to argue with some of the uninformed know-it-alls on this particular string. Rupp has a shot at a medal, pure and simple, and that was the question posed. He's not a favorite to get one (who saw Teg getting 4th at Worlds either?), but that's why they run the race. To find out. And Rupp most certainly has a shot.

It's obvious some of the posters on this string haven't seen Rupp's recent races to see how easily he is toying with runners and how easily he closed very fast in 5k and 10k. They can stick their heads in the sand, hate all they want, and avoid watching his races, but he's a very different runner than he's been in the past. A year or so ago, I didn't see Rupp developing into this kind of a racer, or at least not this quickly, but his recent performances have changed my mind.

Let's watch the race and see what happens.

prefan wrote:

It's obvious some of the posters on this string haven't seen Rupp's recent races to see how easily he is toying with runners and how easily he closed very fast in 5k and 10k. They can stick their heads in the sand, hate all they want, and avoid watching his races, but he's a very different runner than he's been in the past. A year or so ago, I didn't see Rupp developing into this kind of a racer, or at least not this quickly, but his recent performances have changed my mind.

prefan wrote:

Let's watch the race and see what happens.

You should follow your own advice.

You really think rupp can run a 13:05 in europe with a 53-54 closing speed. Rupp stans are delusional. I agree he can run inside 13:10 but not with that kind of closing speed. Most likely he can 55-57 for like 13:07 or something. Hard work will only get you so far, after that its pretty much just raw speed/talent. I have seen rupp race. I've seen him race a bunch of college kids off of extremely slow paces which really isn't all that impressing on world stage if he got guys like bekele and lagat closing in 51-53 sec off of 13 flat- sub 13 5k races. As far as Daba is concerned, that guy really doesn't have a kick and rupp with all his speed training still wasn't able to get him. Rupp will impress me if he beats someone like lagat or sileshi shihine. Until then....so what

Too many people think the know that they are right definitevly...

Basically, he has a shot, as does anyone in the race.

It is statistically unlikely.

But he is showing signs of getting to the next level.

The next level is probably placing between 5-10.

Salazar has said for 9 years that the goal was to close the gap; that getting closer was the goal, that *maybe someday a medal would be possible.

He's never told Galen "stick with me kid, I'll train you to a gold medal."

He's told him "it is incredibly tough. It will take a decade plus of work, and there is no guarentee you'll even medal...but the quest is to see if we can get you in the mix, close the gap, and see what happens."

That has been Salazar's take for 9 years, for Galen or any USA runner... to "CLOSE THE GAP" to "get in the mix."

What is great about that, is that Galen has been on a path of consistent incremental improvement. Galen has been informed and mentally trained to be realistic from the start.

Looking back at all his interviews over the last 6 years or so, he's never too high or too low, win or lose.

Of all the American runners (male) the only one who seems to be having as much fun at it as Galen, is Evan Jager.

I think the key to whatever improvement, how ever far Galen gets in the world of distance running, it will be part talent, of course...but a huge part will be his attitude...

Which it looks like Alberto has coached perfectly. Galen seems equally happy however he finishes...and it is usually in the top...you know 5 years of Nancies bitching at him hear because he took too many second places...laughable...like it is easy to finish that high in that many elite races in college, consistently... But Galen takes it all in stride with a positive attiude, he clearly enjoys running and racing... Seems to still have his childlike joy for it...And you know who that most reminds me of?

A Kenyan or an Ethiopian.

Maybe Galen never gets there, never medals on the world stage, never makes the podium - BUT you could say that about EVERY American male runners these days.

BFD.

The question becomes if you understand the quest, if you are seeing the story develop, if you have noticed Salazar and Galen's quotes and goals all along.

It is like all of the lightwits that were not paying attention at the start of Salazar's discovery and stewardship of this talent, to what he/they said, how they planned things out a decade plus in advance...how the goal was to keep closing the gap...and make the quest to get in the conversation for the podium...and see what happens...well those people have not been paying attention.

Too many people were saying stupid things like "Alberto is going to over-train him, grind him into the ground..."

Having run with Alberto for 3 years, I knew that was not the case. Why would you have someone do what you did that ruined your career, your body, and nearly killed you on multiple occasions???

The answer is, you wouldn't, only an idiot would.

And Alberto may have been driven and naive in his young days, but the dude is far from an idiot.

I knew without the internet, when Alberto took 15th in the Olympics that he had over trained himself and ruined his career. I knew it because I was waiting for it to happen...having watched him for 3 years...it was disapointing as hell to see him not win Gold in LA, but I was not surprised, sad, but not surprised.

...The game here is to watch the closing of the gap.

Galen even said it last week "gonna stick my nose in with the Africans and see what I can do."

Without incremental improvement, and closing the gap, focusing on closing the gap...instead of "winner take all" mentality...the gap never gets closed, and winning, or medaling NEVER becomes possible for American male runners.

The way Galen performed this year, and the way he is looking, nothing will surprise me, and nothing won't surprise me.

It is unlikely he'll medal...

But as Amy Yoder said "just do it, don't think about it" "don't put limits on yourself, just see what you can do.

And I think that is how Alberto is coaching his athletes... He coaches them up, and trains their mental approach to be that they not limit themselves.

It is a fascinating journey to follow Alberto and Schumacher's groups...and the other OTC groups/members.

Wouldn't it be nice if more people enjoyed that?

Sorry but no wrote:

Nope. No chance. Just seen the oslo 5000m race and I seriously doubt rupp would have been in the mix with them on the last lap. He's running against genetic gifted africans not some college YOUNG guys.

So Chelanga, the brother of a 2:07 marathoner, who has trained with Tergat, and is a year older than Rupp was just "some college YOUNG guy". Not a "genetic[ally] gifted [A]frican"? Right...

Truth and Honesty wrote:

As far as Daba is concerned, that guy really doesn't have a kick and rupp with all his speed training still wasn't able to get him. Rupp will impress me if he beats someone like lagat or sileshi shihine. Until then....so what

You're right about how Daba has been racing this summer, but I think you forgot to acknowledge that the last time Rupp raced him was actually THE turning poing for Rupp and his kick. It was right then that he was putting in the speedwork and it was that race that it clicked in his head that he was capable of closing hard at the end of a 13:18 indoor race (for example).

Rupp's finishes have only been more impressive since then. Not saying that guarantees anything, but his indoor NCAA's was the big kickoff to what we now know as Galen Rupp come to the last part of a race. I'm guessing we're going to have more Americans tuned in, with more anticipation and hope in the world champs 10K than we have in a LOOOOOONG, LONG time. If nothing else, Rupp has already achieved something big in just making that happen.

I think Galen has a realistic shot at top 5 in the 10000m World and a very slim chance at a medal but nethertheless he's chance is better than any American male in the last two decades.

not in wrestling or boxing.

Galen has proven that he can close in :53 in the right race. Can he close in :52 for a 27:20 type race?? Probably not. But given his rate of improvement, he might be able to in 1-2 years.

ttc wrote:

Galen has proven that he can close in :53 in the right race. Can he close in :52 for a 27:20 type race?? Probably not. But given his rate of improvement, he might be able to in 1-2 years.

For all of those saying that Rupp just isn't at the level of most of these guys, it's hard to imagine him not going through 3K at 7:55 here (or 7:56-7:57 in the pack) and being very comfortable. I don't see why he wouldn't be kicking with Shihine and Daba on the last lap.

Bekele hits 10:36 at 4K (13:15 pace) after a 2:41 3rd kilometer and closes in 2:29 with Shihine and Daba closing in about 2:30-2:31. Rupp closed in 2:25 jogging and waving in in the last 5K (out of essentially 4 x 5K's in less than 2 days at NCAA's). Now I know there is a difference between 14:15 pace and 13:15 pace, just as I know there is a difference between running one fast race in Europe in perfect conditions and running 20,000 meters in 46 hours in hot and humid Arkansas with weather delays and the emotional drain of being perfect for your team, even when your shoe comes off in the race.

I expect Rupp to have a chance to do at worlds what he could have done at Bislett, be right in the thick of things coming into the last laps and being able to kick with that top group (note I said group not winner). I really wouldn't be surprised if he ran 27:22 and finished 8th or 9th, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he went 27:10 and was in the medal hunt. Given Rupps last 9 months I'd be betting more on the coming up big end of that spectrum though.

After NCAAs, Galen gave an insightful interview on his long term plan in the 10k. He estimated he was 30-40 seconds behind the medalists in '08, and he wants to improve 10 secs a year for London 2012. He acknowledged he feels that he's at least 10 sec ahead of last year already.

If it's a tactical 27:05 race in Berlin, I'll say he does better and is 20 secs back at 27:25. What place that ends up being is more dependent on the field, but I'll guess 8th.

I'll agree with a lot of what you and Random Thoughts said. I do not have the benefit of elite training or racing experience. I have just watched the races for about 25 years. Rupp's attitude is great and his progress has been dramatic. His college races have been excellent.

I think Rupp could have handled the pace in Oslo and a lot of guys ran the last lap in 56-58. (Rupp would have been smart enough to back off the opening 2 laps and then rejoin a pack of runners who were all in oxygen debt). So I think he could have finished in 5th or 6th. I could be wrong.

The Bislett meet made me rethink Rupp's potential in Berlin. A week ago I thought 7-10 would was the limit. Now, if he is lucky, I think he can get up to 5. He would need a breakthrough race, and a lot of luck, to get even higher.

My reasoning is that it seems that none of the 10k guys, except maybe Kitwara and Abdosh, are in PR shape this year. So the race could be pretty open.

The other GL races will be worth watching. I would like to see Rupp in one big race before Berlin just so he can test what he has in term of ability to hold a fast pace.

Other thoughts:

- Sihine and Bekele will still be tough for anyone to beat. But they seem somewhat off and it is now a little more likely than it has ever been that one will have a bad day.

- Kipchoge is in great shape and is capable of a fast 10k but he will run the 5k.

- Kitwara seems to be cashing in and racing a lot and its not clear if Abdosh will run the 5 or the 10.

- One of Masai or Kogo (3rd and 4th in Beijing) will not be in the 10k. Masai is coming off injury and said he will try to make Kenya's team in the 5.

- Ngatuny is not a big kicker.

- After Berlin, I think Rupp goes for the US record at Van Damme (they usually have a 10k there)

Predicter wrote:

After NCAAs, Galen gave an insightful interview on his long term plan in the 10k. He estimated he was 30-40 seconds behind the medalists in '08, and he wants to improve 10 secs a year for London 2012. He acknowledged he feels that he's at least 10 sec ahead of last year already.

If it's a tactical 27:05 race in Berlin, I'll say he does better and is 20 secs back at 27:25. What place that ends up being is more dependent on the field, but I'll guess 8th.

I didn't see that interview, but my guess is that he meant he was 30-40 seconds behind them in an all out PR type race. Meaning most of those guys are 26:40-26:50 guys in that setting and he feels that he was 30-40 seconds behind that in a great race for him. I think that would be very fair, keeping in mind that he ran 27:33 in 2007 he was probably ready for 27:20-27:25 last year if he ran in one of those races, and he's probably at least 10 seconds faster than that now.

That would just put him at AR range (27:10-27:15) and that seems more than fair. Rupp is certainly not known to make bold statements about his fitness, if anything he makes conservative statements and then goes out and goes a bit better.

berlin for a 10K wrote:

For all of those saying that Rupp just isn't at the level of most of these guys, it's hard to imagine him not going through 3K at 7:55 here (or 7:56-7:57 in the pack) and being very comfortable. I don't see why he wouldn't be kicking with Shihine and Daba on the last lap...

His kick at world level is so unknown. He's kicked :53 at a slow pace. And at USATF's, he finished in only 1:03, because the other guys couldn't kick or weren't near. Watching the close ups of the final few USATF 10K laps, the 27:5X didn't look all that easy to him. He wasn't just jogging. Could he have finished in :52?? I'd say no. But unlike my opinions in the past, I now think he has the tools to kick :52 off a good pace. It'll take more time.

Oh Really? wrote:

Sorry but no wrote:

Nope. No chance. Just seen the oslo 5000m race and I seriously doubt rupp would have been in the mix with them on the last lap. He's running against genetic gifted africans not some college YOUNG guys.

So Chelanga, the brother of a 2:07 marathoner, who has trained with Tergat, and is a year older than Rupp was just "some college YOUNG guy". Not a "genetic[ally] gifted [A]frican"? Right...

"the BROTHER of a 2:07 marathoner" - NOT a 2:07 marathoner. Can you understand the difference? Hello??