German Fernandez is a Serious Threat to Win NCAA Cross Country Nationals

boingboing.net wrote:

Chelenga is 23 and has 5 years of physical maturity advantage over German, so it's not an equivalent comparison. Nonetheless, I think German will be in the battle.

What's scary about German is that he is a better track than XC runner...yet he is still winning races at cross country. Just imagine what this lad can do during outdoors. Given 4 years of injury free training at progressively higher training loads, this kid can go sub 13 as a collegiate runner. This is the next step in NCAA distance running evolution... to have sub 13 5000m times run at collegiate races.

german will run sub 3:50 and 13:00 before he graduates

absurd?

If Fernandez stays healthy this year, I would give him third place at Nats and sub 13:30 on the track. If he stays reasonably healthy for the next couple of season, I can see him going under 13 in the 2011 track season, setting him up perfectly for the 2012 games. These predictions are extrapolating to the max, but what is the point of predicting things if you don't extrapolate. IMHO he is the most talented long distance athlete America has ever seen. Combine that with the smart coaching he has (including H.S. coach) and we will begin to see a new dominant figure in American distance running.

sub 3:50 is a bit absurd...

Sub 13 is a bit absurd too- where is he going to run those kind of times in the NCAA?

Timmayy wrote:

Sub 13 is a bit absurd too- where is he going to run those kind of times in the NCAA?

I'm sure there were people who said that the thought of breaking Nelson's HS 2M record was absurd, since Nelson set his record in an open race and open 2M races are as rare these days as hens teeth.

Let's not go crazy here. Webb ran 3:53 in 2001, and 4 years later he cracked 3:50. Granted there was some turmoil in the between years.

Ritz ran 13:27 as a frosh, right? And he's no American Dream for the 5K - hasn't chipped 20 seconds off that mark in the last 6 years. Granted there have been injuries along the way.

Remember Withrow - 13:35 and US Cross team as a frosh, and now he's in injury purgatory.

German has plenty of time to become a great distance runner, and he's off to a great start with all the accomplishments in the past year.

Obviously running 3:50 is out of the question, but I can easily see the Jr. Nat 5K and 10K record going down this year. German was probably in 13:30x shape when broke the H.S. 2-mile record; his 1600/3200 (4:00.29/8:34.23) double at the CA state meet is more impressive from a strength standpoint than his 8:34 2-mile. Two 13:30x guys we all know said it would have been very difficult for them to do that double. Also, Fernandez who is known as more of a track runner, yet he appears to be capable of handling guys like Shadrack Songok, Brent Vaughn, Pete Van Der, Garrett Heath, Kyle Alcorn, Stuart Eagon, Scotty Bauhs, Mohamed Khadraoui on a cross country course. Also remember, Songok beat Rupp twice in the 10K and Fernandez beat Songok at the Big 12 meet.

You draw your own conclusions, but he is ahead of where Rupp, Lindgren, Ritz, Virgin, Pre, McChesney and Webb were at this point in their NCAA careers….scary I know.

TrackCoach wrote:

You draw your own conclusions, but he is ahead of where Rupp, Lindgren, Ritz, Virgin, Pre, McChesney and Webb were at this point in their NCAA careers….scary I know.

i'm not the most NCAA knowledgable person, but arent he and freshman Webb pretty close? like, didnt Webb win Big Ten(or whatever conference) his freshman year?

maybe baby wrote:

TrackCoach wrote:

You draw your own conclusions, but he is ahead of where Rupp, Lindgren, Ritz, Virgin, Pre, McChesney and Webb were at this point in their NCAA careers….scary I know.

i'm not the most NCAA knowledgable person, but arent he and freshman Webb pretty close? like, didnt Webb win Big Ten(or whatever conference) his freshman year?

Big 12 this year is more competitive than the year Webb won the Big 10; GF beat 2 athletes who finished in the top-10 last year.

"If Fernandez stays healthy this year, I would give him third place at Nats and sub 13:30 on the track"

Mike, for someone extrapolating a sub-13 just 2 years later, this seems like a very conservative estimate for this coming track season. What 2 people are gonna beat him? I predict a win and 13:21. I think he could run faster than this but I'm not gonna shoot for the stars since we just don't know how he'll improve from last Spring to this coming one.

If Oregon would have offered German a "Full Scholarship" (Oregon gives no freshmen full rides), he would now be a duck. Power to Oklahoma. Still, Luke at Oregon isn't what I would call a looser.

To be honest, I'm not sure I think Fernandez has much of a chance anymore. As I said in the piece, if Chelanga emerged to be dominant than it would all be moot. And he's looking like one of the best NCAA runners ever. Beating Rupp isn't out of the question, but he performed well at PAC-10s and is likely a class above German too.

i would not say he is better than scotty bauhs. at least not for a while.

I predict third. This kid looks fit, fast, under control, and I am sure wants to be apart of a championship team. I doubt he will win though.

It just could happen>