Blood is on a mission and looked really good at PSAC's. Not as good as weiss, who might as well have been humming a tune while he ran, but good. However, I do think Weiss will get him at Nats. Weiss seems to be getting rested up just in time for the Championships, and I'm not willing to bet against a guy that was top 5 at the big dance last year...especially if he is healthy.
Concerning teams, I'm pretty much sticking with my pre-season picks for the 1-3 slots.
1.) Haven -- the smartest, toughest, and most talented runners on the course...and, they happen to have the most depth
2.) Ship -- I liked Ship's chances all season, and I agree with you that they are generally better over 10K than 8K...but, I've got to tell you, this team showed NOTHING last week. Despite that, I am sticking with my picking them to go to nats and sending boro home for the first time. Boro showed a lot of heart in last week's race, but a bunch of their guys really started falling back in the latter miles. If the Ship guys want this race bad enough, they will be able to gun boro down over the last 2 miles. I've said for a while now that Spence is on the verge of busting out from being a good coach to a geat one. This race will be a good indicator of whether or not I'm correct. If Ship's #2-#5 runners are hovering around 20th place at the 4 mile mark and are packed up together, they are golden. If they fail to be in position by 4 miles and fail to run with some guts over the last several miles (to race instead of just run), they'll finish 4th.
3.) Boro -- It's real tempting for me to revise my picks from last week, given that Boro went out aggressively and came to race. But, this boro team lacked the strength of prior teams and, uncharacteristically, began to fade over the closing 1.5 miles. If this team goes out under contol a bit more, I think Ship will have a hard time beating them...as I don't think they'll come back to Ship. However, that would involve Boro conceding a race to Haven, something I can't seem them doing. So, I think the Fighting Scotts will go out hard and leave themselvers vulnerable over the latter part of the race.
Concerning 4th, 5th, and 6th -- I essentially see it as being pretty much a dead heat. But, that would be a totally pussy move to not make a call, so I'll make predictions. Normally, I would bet on the team with the best coaching, but among these three -- I'm not sure who that is.
4.) Bloom -- Shepherd is the real deal. He was kind of overlooked in last week's race, but he moved up steadily and was not far from Weiss, Clark and Medina when all was said and done. He proved he can peak at regionals last year, so I expect a very solid, well executed race from him. I don't hink he is quite as fit as the other top 4, so if the race is fast, I could see him and Hansloven getting gapped slightly. But, if the race isn't fast, I look for him to be right in the thick of it, lurking right on the top runners' heels. And, Bloom showed that they have a pretty good pack. I wish that I would've watched the race a little closer, as I'm not sure how well these guys ran over the last 1.5 miles. The Clarion team looked good near the end, so if these guys fade at al in the closing miles, Clarion will eat their lunch.
5.) Clarion -- Clark has proven that he is the real deal. I was thoroughly impressed by Hermann and McFarland. I think Clarion ran fantastic last weekend. In fact, overall, as a team -- I thought they were the one team that really ran to their potential in Bloomsburg. They clearly came out ready to race. But, I think that they ran almost too perfect of a race last week at state's (when it doesn't really matter) and won't be able ot repeat this week at regionals (when it does matter). I think Clarion will be very solid again this week, but not quite as sharp as they were last week. I think it will be close, but Bloom will nip them by just a few points. I hope I'm wrong on this, as they have become my sentimental favorite...as I enjoy rooting for the underdog and appeciate how this team has responded to adversity.
6.) ESU -- I'm sure I will once again take smack for under-rating this team, but they still have to prove they are worthy of a top-4 placing at regionals. This team totally has it all on paper, but it's been a rare occassion when I've seen ESU at their best at regionals, when it counts most. They're not alone in this regard, as the same could be said fo IUP...or Bloom for that matter. Pinto looked like he was/is rounding into form last weekend, and I would expect another good race from him this week. But, I can't see him placing much higher than what he was last week, and I'm not sure this team will go out and get in the race and give themselves a chance. And, I don't know what happened with Nesbitt. I heard he fell last week, but who didn't on that course. This team is clearly capable of finishing as high as fourth...they should finish as high as fourth, but somehow, I have trouble thinking that they will.
7.) IUP -- I'm not sure this team even deserves to finish as high as seventh, as they are a split team...some with a whole lot of toughness and heart and some without. This team was a top 4 team on paper coming into this year (IMHO), but they are anything but that right now. Jorge is good...very good. He may not have the talent of Blood or Weiss, but he certainly has as much guts and tenacity. Kruttschnitt is getting stronger and soph Nate Shelley looked REALLY good last weekend. I think Shelley will benefit from having an extra mile to run. But, that's it...there is no 4th or 5th man this year...only a big, gaping hole.
8. Rock -- It was virtually a dead heat between Rock and Kutz last weekend, but Rock clearly has the better #1 runner. And, probably a better #2 runner as well, even though Grey just barely edged Dan Wilde last week. Grey is definitely the better runner of those two, but he looked inexperienced in last week's race. He used a lot of energy looking around and trying to stay on his feet early at Bloom. I think drier conditions and running at "home" will make him more relaxed and comfortable in the early miles and put him closer to Pat Bone than to Wilde. I give Rock the edge over Kutz based on their top 2 runners.
9. Kutz -- Bone is solid, and I think he will finish in the top 20 this week. The rest of the group is fairly tightly packed, but just too far back from the rest of the field. These guys will need to lay it on the line from 2-4 miles and make sure that they at least get in the race and give themselves a chance.
That's it. I'm not picking beyond 9 this year, as things trail off dramatically.
Hoovis