Why some of y'all talking about a tactical race? You have Lemngole and Hedengren going head-to-head - it ain't going to be slow. I could see the race being those two and then everyone else racing for position, because you'd be crazy to try to stay with them (although I would bet money at least one young Kenyan tries for a few K).
You'd think Lemngole and Kosgei as sub-15 runners would give her a very tough race but the performances so far this season indicate that there will be at least a 20 second gap from Hedengren back to second.
True.
However, Lemngole held back for awhile at SECs before taking off FTW in her first fall race.
Same with Kosgei at MWC.
And, same with Cherotich at B1Gs, not separating from the pack until after the 4k mark.
Whereas, Hedengren took off from the gun at Big 12s, immediately going to the front and lengthening the lead throughout.
Since it appears Hedengren has gone all-out in both her races, while it appears the other 3 have not, impossible to tell at this point who if fitter than whom.
Note: all have broken 19:00 for 6k xc races.
In any case, those are your 4 co-favorites for the national title.
Question going into NCAAs -- presuming all advance through Regionals: does Jane continue her front running approach, going hard from the gun in an attempt to run the legs out from the other 3? Or, does Diljeet call an audible, having Jane stay with the pack for awhile, then going hard over the last 2-3k?
Such a fascinating race-within-the-race. Likely the highlight of both races on Nov 22nd.
I don't think we have yet seen Doris run a flat out 6K in XC, or 5000 on the track. Last year she split 10:10/9:11 with a 2:56 final K in Wisconsin, thoroughly gapping a 14:52 5000 runner in the final 400. Even Indoors, 15:05 to win with final 1000 at 2:50 and final 400 at 0:63. And certainly her XC debut at the SEC championships was not flat out.
Did you listen to her post-race interview at SEC’s? I took that into account when coming up with a number. Fitness ebbs and flows with the seasons.
rbtrackfan, l'enantiomer or someone posted that Doris was probably in 14:4x shape this summer. I agree. Her run and interview last week did not convince me she has lost fitness.
Just stop. You completely miss the point. In my scenario, I never said anything about “pulling teammates along.” In crosscountry, huge point swings happen in the blink of an eye at the back of the lineup. The chances of the team underdog, BYU in this case to NC State, improve if that finishing shoot gets compacted in a slower, tactical affair.
When was the last time we saw a slow, tactical, collegiate cross country race especially among the women? Never. What are the chances of NC State letting this become a slow, tactical race if it is so obvious, as you claim, that this is the only way BYU can win? Zero.
The only team strategy that has ever worked at this level (outside of UTEP just blasting everyone) is a variation of one team going out too hard while the other teams sits back and picks them off over the last 2k. That is exactly what BYU can do with Jane controlling the race.
Hedengren is going to control the race just like race just like Centro did in 2016? I’m looking forward to watching it.
Did you listen to her post-race interview at SEC’s? I took that into account when coming up with a number. Fitness ebbs and flows with the seasons.
rbtrackfan, l'enantiomer or someone posted that Doris was probably in 14:4x shape this summer. I agree. Her run and interview last week did not convince me she has lost fitness.
Agree. The thing is, I believe Hedengren is as well. If we go by the (completely unproven) conversion guideline of 3000m SC = 2 mile, then 8:58 is superior to 9:17.
But Hedengren is likely faster than 9:17 now, perhaps as fast as 9:10 shape. Only slightly slower than Lemngole’. Will Lemngole’ be sharp enough to match her?
Not sure but a tight race is far more exciting to watch than a runaway victory.
rbtrackfan, l'enantiomer or someone posted that Doris was probably in 14:4x shape this summer. I agree. Her run and interview last week did not convince me she has lost fitness.
Agree. The thing is, I believe Hedengren is as well. If we go by the (completely unproven) conversion guideline of 3000m SC = 2 mile, then 8:58 is superior to 9:17.
But Hedengren is likely faster than 9:17 now, perhaps as fast as 9:10 shape. Only slightly slower than Lemngole’. Will Lemngole’ be sharp enough to match her?
Not sure but a tight race is far more exciting to watch than a runaway victory.
Of course Doris is sharp enough. Hedengren’s best chances to win it are to run away from her at the gun, like Valby the wildebeest did at the 2023 SEC Championships when she broke 18min one week before winning Natty’s.
Agree. The thing is, I believe Hedengren is as well. If we go by the (completely unproven) conversion guideline of 3000m SC = 2 mile, then 8:58 is superior to 9:17.
But Hedengren is likely faster than 9:17 now, perhaps as fast as 9:10 shape. Only slightly slower than Lemngole’. Will Lemngole’ be sharp enough to match her?
Not sure but a tight race is far more exciting to watch than a runaway victory.
Of course Doris is sharp enough. Hedengren’s best chances to win it are to run away from her at the gun, like Valby the wildebeest did at the 2023 SEC Championships when she broke 18min one week before winning Natty’s.
Not sure what is up with Hartman, but NC State preferably gets at least another 15:15 TiC performance, like she dropped at Nutty. That would require at least running 19min at Natty’s. If her best shot at doing that is even-splits, then look for her to be leading the pack with 3:10/k, if Jane doesn’t go.
Valby ran 19:17 at Nuttycombe, a course record, in very wet conditions, faster than the 2024 championship that Lemngole won in 19:21. That puts Hedengren no worse than Lemngole and probably faster, taking account of her running very close in 5000m to Valby, running mid 18s in her first two xc races, having a more powerful stride, and distancing herself more and more over her opposition the farther the race. For example, at conference, she was up just 4 sec at the mile but built the lead by larger and larger increments at each time check after that, 3k, 5k, and 6k.
Valby ran 19:17 at Nuttycombe, a course record, in very wet conditions, faster than the 2024 championship that Lemngole won in 19:21. That puts Hedengren no worse than Lemngole and probably faster, taking account of her running very close in 5000m to Valby, running mid 18s in her first two xc races, having a more powerful stride, and distancing herself more and more over her opposition the farther the race. For example, at conference, she was up just 4 sec at the mile but built the lead by larger and larger increments at each time check after that, 3k, 5k, and 6k.
You might want to look at the splits from last year's championship race.