I would move Michalak up to the same tier with Gapes, Ayyildiz, etc
well, Dalton was just 10 seconds back of Hartman and Michalak 10 seconds back of her.....20 seconds can be a lot of places...I am somewhat giving Gapes the benefit of the doubt at this point.
I was specifically referring to gorun as the poser, who made it his aim to stir up crap to try and negatively trigger.
He claimed to not be semihaze, who was a tuohy fanatic profiteering off the YouTube channel covering her which he/she created. He/she then seemed to go obsessively overboard on this forum, believing his/her own koolaid, and taking the 2022 Natty’s victory as opportunity to rub it in; but gorun (aka turbokick) was chief, in that regard.
I was specifically referring to gorun as the poser, who made it his aim to stir up crap to try and negatively trigger.
He claimed to not be semihaze, who was a tuohy fanatic profiteering off the YouTube channel covering her which he/she created. He/she then seemed to go obsessively overboard on this forum, believing his/her own koolaid, and taking the 2022 Natty’s victory as opportunity to rub it in; but gorun (aka turbokick) was chief, in that regard.
Here is my current top 45, although even in this some give me some pause due to absence, or a worse than expected result. Blocks of runners I consider equal, and "tied"
1 Alabama Doris Lemngole - I feel real good about her winning 2 New Mexico Pamela Kosgei 3 BYU Jane Hedengren - if it comes down to a kick I like the other 2
4 NC State Grace Hartman Stanford Amy Bunnage - strictly on reputation
6 Stanford Sophia Kennedy NC State Angelina Napoleon Clemson Silvia Jelego
9 Arkansas Paityn Noe - strictly on reputation Arkansas Sydney Thorvaldson - ditto
14 NC State Hannah Gapes - I hope that was a bad race and not a recurring of the injury Oregon Silan Ayyildiz Notre Dame Mary Bonner Dalton Oregon Juliet Cherubet Florida Judy Chepkoech - some judgement where to put the FL runners based on a Sep result
19 Iowa State Mercyline Kirwa New Mexico Marion Jepngetich West Virginia Joy Naukot Florida Hilda Olemomoi
23 Michigan State Rachel Forsyth - strictly on last year Northern Arizona Karrie Baloga - absence giving me pause NC State Bethany Michalak Notre Dame Amaya Aramini Florida Desma Chepkoech Florida Tia Wilson
29 Alabama Brenda Tuwei - unknown this might be too low North Carolina Vera Sjoberg Oklahoma State Isca Chelangat Penn State Florence Caron Villanova Sadie Sigfstead
34 Notre Dame Siona Chisholm - I think she needs to learn to race better (smarter) Alabama Cynthia Jemutai Georgetown Melissa Riggins Iowa State Maelle Porcher New Mexico Mercy Kirarei Northern Arizona Agnes McTighe Northern Arizona Hayley Burns Oregon Anika Thompson Utah Erin Vringer Washington Mia Cochran Iowa State Betty Kipkore Arkansas Josephine Mwaura
This is a start, but obviously greatly incomplete in order to try and assign scores to the top 4 teams (which you previously attempted), because it has no info out at least to the top 5. You know the back-end of the line-up is where the make-or-break happens, so please extend your analysis out to at least the #5’s.
. I tried following your logic but could not as the LAACTiC ratings seemed to be some combination of best TiC, estimated TiC, and season average TiC.
I’m glad you took the time to see what I did. You can see that there is some leeway in my simulation’s selection of a runner’s recent TiC or Rating. This take’s some measured guesswork (aka “feel”), but you can see I tended to, if anything, lean toward the conservative side with NC State runners and was possibly generous with their opponents.
It would take more time, but another way we can look at it is evaluating a “spread” of ratings. For each runner, up under their rating, LACCTiC publishes a high-low spread in a runner’s rating; for example, Hartman’s rating spread is currently 14:46-15:15.
More detailed analyses could use those spreads, in comparing team’s high-ratings against each other, their low-ratings against each, and even further, highs vs lows, etc.
. I tried following your logic but could not as the LAACTiC ratings seemed to be some combination of best TiC, estimated TiC, and season average TiC.
I’m glad you took the time to see what I did. You can see that there is some leeway in my simulation’s selection of a runner’s recent TiC or Rating. This take’s some measured guesswork (aka “feel”), but you can see I tended to, if anything, lean toward the conservative side with NC State runners and was possibly generous with their opponents.
Comparing TiCs between BYU vs NC State, I placed a lot of emphasis on their most recent race, where it was finally ‘show me’ time, with the season debut unveiling of Hedengren, Hartman, and Napoleon.
Here is my current top 45, although even in this some give me some pause due to absence, or a worse than expected result. Blocks of runners I consider equal, and "tied"
1 Alabama Doris Lemngole - I feel real good about her winning 2 New Mexico Pamela Kosgei 3 BYU Jane Hedengren - if it comes down to a kick I like the other 2
4 NC State Grace Hartman Stanford Amy Bunnage - strictly on reputation
6 Stanford Sophia Kennedy NC State Angelina Napoleon Clemson Silvia Jelego
9 Arkansas Paityn Noe - strictly on reputation Arkansas Sydney Thorvaldson - ditto
14 NC State Hannah Gapes - I hope that was a bad race and not a recurring of the injury Oregon Silan Ayyildiz Notre Dame Mary Bonner Dalton Oregon Juliet Cherubet Florida Judy Chepkoech - some judgement where to put the FL runners based on a Sep result
19 Iowa State Mercyline Kirwa New Mexico Marion Jepngetich West Virginia Joy Naukot Florida Hilda Olemomoi
23 Michigan State Rachel Forsyth - strictly on last year Northern Arizona Karrie Baloga - absence giving me pause NC State Bethany Michalak Notre Dame Amaya Aramini Florida Desma Chepkoech Florida Tia Wilson
29 Alabama Brenda Tuwei - unknown this might be too low North Carolina Vera Sjoberg Oklahoma State Isca Chelangat Penn State Florence Caron Villanova Sadie Sigfstead
34 Notre Dame Siona Chisholm - I think she needs to learn to race better (smarter) Alabama Cynthia Jemutai Georgetown Melissa Riggins Iowa State Maelle Porcher New Mexico Mercy Kirarei Northern Arizona Agnes McTighe Northern Arizona Hayley Burns Oregon Anika Thompson Utah Erin Vringer Washington Mia Cochran Iowa State Betty Kipkore Arkansas Josephine Mwaura
Where do you put Washington State's Rosemary Longisa and Zenah Cheptoo?
Here is my current top 45, although even in this some give me some pause due to absence, or a worse than expected result. Blocks of runners I consider equal, and "tied"
1 Alabama Doris Lemngole - I feel real good about her winning 2 New Mexico Pamela Kosgei 3 BYU Jane Hedengren - if it comes down to a kick I like the other 2
4 NC State Grace Hartman Stanford Amy Bunnage - strictly on reputation
6 Stanford Sophia Kennedy NC State Angelina Napoleon Clemson Silvia Jelego
9 Arkansas Paityn Noe - strictly on reputation Arkansas Sydney Thorvaldson - ditto
14 NC State Hannah Gapes - I hope that was a bad race and not a recurring of the injury Oregon Silan Ayyildiz Notre Dame Mary Bonner Dalton Oregon Juliet Cherubet Florida Judy Chepkoech - some judgement where to put the FL runners based on a Sep result
19 Iowa State Mercyline Kirwa New Mexico Marion Jepngetich West Virginia Joy Naukot Florida Hilda Olemomoi
23 Michigan State Rachel Forsyth - strictly on last year Northern Arizona Karrie Baloga - absence giving me pause NC State Bethany Michalak Notre Dame Amaya Aramini Florida Desma Chepkoech Florida Tia Wilson
29 Alabama Brenda Tuwei - unknown this might be too low North Carolina Vera Sjoberg Oklahoma State Isca Chelangat Penn State Florence Caron Villanova Sadie Sigfstead
34 Notre Dame Siona Chisholm - I think she needs to learn to race better (smarter) Alabama Cynthia Jemutai Georgetown Melissa Riggins Iowa State Maelle Porcher New Mexico Mercy Kirarei Northern Arizona Agnes McTighe Northern Arizona Hayley Burns Oregon Anika Thompson Utah Erin Vringer Washington Mia Cochran Iowa State Betty Kipkore Arkansas Josephine Mwaura
This is a start, but obviously greatly incomplete in order to try and assign scores to the top 4 teams (which you previously attempted), because it has no info out at least to the top 5. You know the back-end of the line-up is where the make-or-break happens, so please extend your analysis out to at least the #5’s.
do you want me to list all 200 or so runners I have force ranked? Admittedly outside of the top teams there is less focus on those >75.
This post was edited 15 seconds after it was posted.
Here is my current top 45, although even in this some give me some pause due to absence, or a worse than expected result. Blocks of runners I consider equal, and "tied"
1 Alabama Doris Lemngole - I feel real good about her winning 2 New Mexico Pamela Kosgei 3 BYU Jane Hedengren - if it comes down to a kick I like the other 2
4 NC State Grace Hartman Stanford Amy Bunnage - strictly on reputation
6 Stanford Sophia Kennedy NC State Angelina Napoleon Clemson Silvia Jelego
9 Arkansas Paityn Noe - strictly on reputation Arkansas Sydney Thorvaldson - ditto
14 NC State Hannah Gapes - I hope that was a bad race and not a recurring of the injury Oregon Silan Ayyildiz Notre Dame Mary Bonner Dalton Oregon Juliet Cherubet Florida Judy Chepkoech - some judgement where to put the FL runners based on a Sep result
19 Iowa State Mercyline Kirwa New Mexico Marion Jepngetich West Virginia Joy Naukot Florida Hilda Olemomoi
23 Michigan State Rachel Forsyth - strictly on last year Northern Arizona Karrie Baloga - absence giving me pause NC State Bethany Michalak Notre Dame Amaya Aramini Florida Desma Chepkoech Florida Tia Wilson
29 Alabama Brenda Tuwei - unknown this might be too low North Carolina Vera Sjoberg Oklahoma State Isca Chelangat Penn State Florence Caron Villanova Sadie Sigfstead
34 Notre Dame Siona Chisholm - I think she needs to learn to race better (smarter) Alabama Cynthia Jemutai Georgetown Melissa Riggins Iowa State Maelle Porcher New Mexico Mercy Kirarei Northern Arizona Agnes McTighe Northern Arizona Hayley Burns Oregon Anika Thompson Utah Erin Vringer Washington Mia Cochran Iowa State Betty Kipkore Arkansas Josephine Mwaura
Where do you put Washington State's Rosemary Longisa and Zenah Cheptoo?
Until I think WSU will qualify as a team, I don't care. But if I had to guess Longisa would be in the group with Chamberlain and Cheptoo maybe 50-60. Looks iffy to me at this point but maybe they can
This is a start, but obviously greatly incomplete in order to try and assign scores to the top 4 teams (which you previously attempted), because it has no info out at least to the top 5. You know the back-end of the line-up is where the make-or-break happens, so please extend your analysis out to at least the #5’s.
do you want me to list all 200 or so runners I have force ranked? Admittedly outside of the top teams there is less focus on those >75.
How can one assign absolute scores without comparing out at least to a team’s top 5 runners, across the field? I was able to effectively do that, by using last year’s Natty’s results as the ‘Rosetta stone’ that makes sense of what a runner’s TiC means in the bigger picture (aka, a full field comparison).
This will be tough to read, but here are the top teams 1-5 spread, 3-5 spread, 1-3 spread, and 1-7 places for team scoring. I am probably being generous with FL 1-5 spread.
do you want me to list all 200 or so runners I have force ranked? Admittedly outside of the top teams there is less focus on those >75.
How can one assign absolute scores without comparing out at least to a team’s top 5 runners, across the field? I was able to effectively do that, by using last year’s Natty’s results as the ‘Rosetta stone’ that makes sense of what a runner’s TiC means in the bigger picture (aka, a full field comparison).
I did just that I just did not post the entire list
This will be tough to read, but here are the top teams 1-5 spread, 3-5 spread, 1-3 spread, and 1-7 places for team scoring. I am probably being generous with FL 1-5 spread.
Good to see that even after taking different paths of analysis, you are nonetheless in agreement with me that NC State is the favorite going into the postseason.👍
This will be tough to read, but here are the top teams 1-5 spread, 3-5 spread, 1-3 spread, and 1-7 places for team scoring. I am probably being generous with FL 1-5 spread.
And there’s a whole lot of over-emphasis lately in this thread on a single race.
To me this “feels” like the odds of winning right now:
31% BYU (quality and replaceable depth from 5-7)
30% NC State (as noted emphatically above by fans, may have the best chance of winning if everyone on every team races to potential)
29% Oregon - lame they’ve raced so little
10% Florida
Now with a better understanding of LACCTIC, and the use of that tool in my simulations, my “feels” like the odds of winning right now:
40% NC State (With their outstanding Freshman #5 and Sophomore #4 on upswings, and their Junior #2/3, Napoleon, having a stellar season debut, Henes’ job now is to just keep them healthy for Natty’s)
30% BYU (Their #1 had a stellar debut and their #2, Chamberlain, is on a strong upswing. There is great depth in their backend, but their expected #3 has been a no-show, and without her, it’s a forgone conclusion.)
25% Oregon - “lame they’ve raced so little”
5% Florida - no showing yet of a credible 5th and no depth on the backend.
This will be tough to read, but here are the top teams 1-5 spread, 3-5 spread, 1-3 spread, and 1-7 places for team scoring. I am probably being generous with FL 1-5 spread.
When you assign placements to runners, you are, in effect, mentally doing what LACCTiC tries to do in a less subjective manner.
somewhat but when possible I rely on actual runner vs runner results or runner vs common opponent result. Some judgement (be it good or bad) used for example I did not (yet) assume Michalak is solid at the very high level she showed on Friday as it was to me a big unexpected jump. So she may seem to some ranked a little low. Napoleon on the other hand I expected to be very good and she was. I suspect Engelhardt may have another possibly higher level which if achieved would be huge. She still has all of 2 college XC races so far. To me, Hutchins is a big unknown as so far she has not had a great performance in the Championship, whether due to not running (injury) or several worse than expected results (like many of her teammates in 2023). But perhaps she is due. OR is another guess assuming they all can return to the best form demonstrated in the past. Similar for a number of other top runners who so far this season have not shown historical form.
I suspect Michalak went back home over the summer, put her head down, and built a big base training at over 7000ft altitude. She had a stellar debut at the Adidas XC Challenge, and Coach Henes has been continuing to sharpen the point from there.
When you assign placements to runners, you are, in effect, mentally doing what LACCTiC tries to do in a less subjective manner.
somewhat but when possible I rely on actual runner vs runner results or runner vs common opponent result. Some judgement (be it good or bad) used for example I did not (yet) assume Michalak is solid at the very high level she showed on Friday as it was to me a big unexpected jump. So she may seem to some ranked a little low. Napoleon on the other hand I expected to be very good and she was. I suspect Engelhardt may have another possibly higher level which if achieved would be huge. She still has all of 2 college XC races so far. To me, Hutchins is a big unknown as so far she has not had a great performance in the Championship, whether due to not running (injury) or several worse than expected results (like many of her teammates in 2023). But perhaps she is due. OR is another guess assuming they all can return to the best form demonstrated in the past. Similar for a number of other top runners who so far this season have not shown historical form.
And let’s not forget Englehardt took down Claudia Lane’s Woodward Park record. But the brutal CA high-school qualifications and courses like Mt. Sac evidently took their toll. Hopefully the injury bugaboo is behind her. Her and Napoleon could roll on the Natty’s course if it’s not torn up and muddy.
Where do you put Washington State's Rosemary Longisa and Zenah Cheptoo?
Until I think WSU will qualify as a team, I don't care. But if I had to guess Longisa would be in the group with Chamberlain and Cheptoo maybe 50-60. Looks iffy to me at this point but maybe they can
They are #4 in the west region but #27 in the coach’s poll, so there is a chance they can enter the nationals as an at large team. The mountain region is brutal. Feeling bad for Colorado and NAU.