Can anyone at BYU or any other team for that matter beat the top 2 individuals at Gans Creek yesterday? .
At the start of the season it would be a bit hard to imagine a relatively unknown 25(?) yr-old would take down Doris Lemngole this year. That would be kind of kind of like a relatively unknown Daniel Komen arriving on the scene and tearing up the track. 😆
They also have several other elite freshman who are very talented. They will sort #5 out and when that happens it is hard to envision anyone beating this team.
well the LAACTiC data for the race is out and the FL top 4 were rated at 15:36-15:45. Impressive.
But
At Nationals last year OR had 4 15:36-15:47 who are still on their team
NC St had 15:30, 15:33 and since then 3 have improved to the point where they ran low 15:40s on the track (and Napoleon is probably faster than the 15:40 she ran)
BYU had Chamberlain last year at 15:46 and she ran 15:2x on the track I think, and they should have Jane H and Jenna H ahead of her
NAU had McTigue and Burns at 15:46, 15:47 and they should have Baloga ahead of them and they have depth as well.
So I will remain patient before awarding anyone the trophy quite yet.
You might be right. Using last year’s data points may not be most accurate since the times could be impacted by weather and surface conditions. Comparable performance against others could be more telling, assuming they are applying the same effort during the race. Sophia Kennedy’s 2025 outdoor 5k TiC is 15:09, and her 2024 Gans Creek TiC is 16:00 even.
They also have several other elite freshman who are very talented. They will sort #5 out and when that happens it is hard to envision anyone beating this team.
well the LAACTiC data for the race is out and the FL top 4 were rated at 15:36-15:45. Impressive.
But
At Nationals last year OR had 4 15:36-15:47 who are still on their team
NC St had 15:30, 15:33 and since then 3 have improved to the point where they ran low 15:40s on the track (and Napoleon is probably faster than the 15:40 she ran)
BYU had Chamberlain last year at 15:46 and she ran 15:2x on the track I think, and they should have Jane H and Jenna H ahead of her
NAU had McTigue and Burns at 15:46, 15:47 and they should have Baloga ahead of them and they have depth as well.
So I will remain patient before awarding anyone the trophy quite yet.
Agree with everything you said. No awards yet. That said, that was awfully impressive so early on.
You obviously don’t know who their potential 5th at Natty’s will be. Try looking up Isobelle Jones.
How about Bethan Morley (4:11, 9:13, bronze medalist World xc relay) but hasn’t done anything notable at Florida.
She is there, and she was their 6th runner yesterday. In my continuously updating assessment, with the caveat that we have only seen most of Florida and little of the other top teams. 1) I can see FL maybe getting the top 4 into the top 30ish team scorers but where will the 5th be? 25 seconds back of 30th last year was about 75th. 2) I can still see OR and BYU with 4 almost equalling that (1-4 total that is) and maybe a slightly stronger 5th. Remember Thompson had a long summer track season. 3) NC St probably has best top 2, maybe also top 3 and a lot of quality depth at 4-7. 4) NM will probably not show their true strength until late in the season but of these teams probably the lowest stick and also a very strong #2.
This post was edited 3 minutes after it was posted.
You obviously don’t know who their potential 5th at Natty’s will be. Try looking up Isobelle Jones.
How about Bethan Morley (4:11, 9:13, bronze medalist World xc relay) but hasn’t done anything notable at Florida.
The soon-to-be 24 yr-old was 77th at Gans Creek.
Florida desperately needs a 5th.
Jones ran a 15:52 5k on the roads this past spring, and a 16:25 ParkRun in 2024. Can 18yr-old Isobelle develop aerobically for the 6k distance in time for Natty’s?
Calling it now, Florida’s podium fortunes this season pivot on Jones; as Jones goes, so goes Florida. 😎
How about Bethan Morley (4:11, 9:13, bronze medalist World xc relay) but hasn’t done anything notable at Florida.
The soon-to-be 24 yr-old was 77th at Gans Creek.
Florida desperately needs a 5th.
Jones ran a 15:52 5k on the roads this past spring, and a 16:25 ParkRun in 2024. Can 18yr-old Isobelle develop aerobically for the 6k distance in time for Natty’s?
Calling it now, Florida’s podium fortunes this season pivot on Jones; as Jones goes, so goes Florida. 😎
Caroline Wells took down Parker Valby’s 3200m high-school record. This could be her last notable stand to step up.
Jones ran a 15:52 5k on the roads this past spring, and a 16:25 ParkRun in 2024. Can 18yr-old Isobelle develop aerobically for the 6k distance in time for Natty’s?
Calling it now, Florida’s podium fortunes this season pivot on Jones; as Jones goes, so goes Florida. 😎
Caroline Wells took down Parker Valby’s 3200m high-school record. This could be her last notable stand to step up.
Olemomoi faded over the last k at Gans Creek. That shouldn’t happen for one of their top 3.
Florida also feature Claire Stegall who was a truly elite high school runner that may or may not be in the mix for the 5th spot. If this spot gets figured out, then it will be very difficult to beat this team with greater low stick scoring than BYU, NC State or others. One thing to not overlook is the incredibly parity on Notre Dame's team though 7. Not sure any team has so many runners so close to one another and the potential to score so closely.
Don’t forget about Kidus Misigna. I’d replace Marco Langon with him, as according to Langon’s strava, he is preparing for March. (If he redshirts XC, he’ll be SR-4 for all three seasons next year). If I had to make a list of the top 10 American NCAA-XC finishers this Fall based on last year’s XC performances and this year’s Indoor/Outdoor performances, these would be who I’d choose (in no particular order)
Gary Martin, Virginia SR-4 Rocky Hansen, Wake Forest JR-3 Riley Hough, Michigan State JR-3 Kidus Misigna, Ole Miss JR-3(?) Dylan Throop, Notre Dame SR-4 Ethan Coleman, Notre Dame JR-3 Jacob White, Wyoming SR-4 Myles Hogan, Princeton SR-4 Justin Watchel, Virginia SR-4 Sam Lawler, Syracuse SR-4
Individuals like Ryan Schoppe, Oklahoma State SR-4, JoJo Jourdon, Wake Forest SO-2 and many of the other Americans in the Top 50 range have a good chance of breaking up the list as well. Although I am not a supporter of the influx in foreign talent in the NCAA, nobody can deny that it is the biggest reason why everyone has become so much faster; those who want to truly be the best will rise to the occasion. Graham Blanks was able to do so and he went from great to World Class in a little over a year. Nico Young, Parker Wolfe, Dylan Schubert… all exceptional talents before 2023 who were then pushed even harder, mainly by individuals a majority of us don’t know the actual age of.
I cannot speak for the women’s side, but the men’s side is going to be an absolute bloodbath this year. Watching the Gans Creek replays from free YouTube channels (I cannot be bothered to buy SEC+) and the Cowboy Jamboree showcased how many different strategies there are to running a good race and winning it. I’ll laugh if Evans Kurui decides to push another blistering pace at a non-home meet; but the athletes behind him are always going to wonder if it will last. Or when at the Cowboy Jamboree when the field made a crazy pace push at I think 4K? There are so many different variables, especially at Nationals.
Just getting to Nationals, especially as a top American individual, will be brutal (good luck in the Midwest region). Everyone is out for blood this year. The East Africans are proving to themselves, back home, and to possibly the people who are against them that they can and will win. It just comes down to the American athletes to make their mark as well: the talent is most definitely there.
I’m missing a few people, like the top Oregon runner Aiden Smith JR-3 and Izaiah Steury, Notre Dame JR-3 but they haven’t ran or ran well enough for me to consider them in contention YET
Can you be more specific who you are referring to? For example, using an altitude converter on the only result for Ogwaka I could find gives a 4:05 1500m and a 15:22 equivalent. But what if she is more suited to distance versus mid-distance?
Like Valby, for example, where a calculator “equivalent” on her collegiate 1500m time gives an under-prediction of her 5000m and 10000m times.
Update: after watching a short clip of Mary Nyaboke OGWOKA…she looks to me like she should be able to run well any distance she wants.
If she is to stay in college through LA ‘28, the collegiate battles with Hedengren could be epic.
It’s somewhat fascinating…so many questions, like “Why Tennessee?” If she is to run for Kenya in future WC’s and the Olympics, does anyone think her development would be better suited training at altitude somewhere?
Lemngole got an NIL with ON. Does Ogwoka go with Adidas?
“Nike and UT began negotiations for extending the deal in late 2024. But that exclusive negotiating window ended March 30, which opened the possibility for other companies to work a deal with Tennessee. Adidas came through with a 10-year deal that Nike did not counter.”
Ogwoka probably has the potential to dethrone Kipyegon by LA’28.