ya to the below post. as a betting man you need to know who is good at one off fantastic performances, and who does not recover well for multiple races. i am not in the game enough to know the field and their tendancies.
rupp i think could have metaled in the 5k if not for trying to double.
asafa powel lost a meter with each round
fernando mamede the sprinter that set 10k wr he could not run heats, no surprise if you think
laros, no clue on that, he managed the finals last year well,
with epo, you don't have this problem..
certainly handicapping you want to consider who is freshest.
Alright, I'll suck it up. Almgren said to Swedish TV that this is the first time he's doing the 5/10 double and that it was more difficult to handle than he expected
Hocker, Mehary, Gressier, Kimeli look strong, while Fisher and Young were very good indoors and in July. Depends on the type of race who wins, but these things have gone around 13:10 almost every time for a long time with a 54 close. That suits Hocker, and Mehary is almost guaranteed to medal. The third could be any of the remaining four. I give it to Gressier, because he has shown the best form at the end of the season when it counts.
Good analysis. I'm thinking it will go out slow, suiting Hocker, but that the last mile will be crazy fast (4:00), making it more difficult for Hocker to use his formidable kick last lap. If it's a 13:20/13:40 type race (possible) I think Hocker has the best chance, but he's not a guarantee for the win ....most of the finalists have a chance to create a big upset. Making predictions is notoriously difficult, especially in this era with so many quality athletes.
What about Jakob in all of this? Will he medal? Unlikely on current form.....but not impossible.....
You do realize everybody who qualified closed in sub 4 the last mile.This is why Fisher is hesitant to even make a move with 4 laps to go because it’s simply not going to shake the field. He’s more likely to blow up than medal which is why he sits and kicks.
Nobody is talking about Mehary, but I’d say he’s the current favorite
I could be wrong but it feels like Mehary’s good enough to be leading with 150 left, but doesn’t have the kick to win.
You are probably right more often than not, but I think Mehary may be good enough that he might have just enough separation with 200m to go that it won’t matter. He maybe does have a bit of Rhonex Kipruto in him, but I do think he has a bit more sprint that Rhonex, and he is capable of running from the front if necessary. I wouldn’t bet on Mehary winning, but he is my pick.
1.Hocker: looked horrifically comfortable in the heat, despite its being much faster than the other one, will run on pure hate. Assuming he's in shape tomorrow (big if), he should have the best kick for anything above 13:10. Would still be a great threat in the range of 13:00-13:10. Not sure how he holds up in sub-13, but overall wouldn't be surprised to see him shock the world once again since Paris.
2.Gressier: looked comically comfortable in the heat, has a great kick and is seemingly in great shape. Will he pull off the double golds since Mo in Rio? We must wait see and see.
3.Mills: looked solid, the PBs (3:28, 12;46) suggest he would be a factor, be it fast or slow, While hardware is lacking. he did look solid in the heat, maybe a dark horse?
That said, it's pretty much an open race, so 99.9999999% I would be wrong. lol
Edit: Ah, originally I had Young for Bronze, but he looked terrible in the heat, though look could be deceiving, like Laros looked the best in the semi, but we know what happened in the final.
For the 1500m, while he didn't have optimal pacing in that 3:37, he's still paced the whole way, so I think he could've run about 3 secs faster. 5 secs seems to be a stretch for me.
For the 5k, I concede he may be better than 13:10, but not sure about 13:00, definitely not 12:55. He's already laboring, while that was not an all-out effort, but should be 90%+. With even pacing and better weather I would have him at somewhere between 13:00-13:10 right now.
12:53.6 pace for his final 4k, 56.78 last lap. Definitely in ~12:55 shape.
For the 1500m, while he didn't have optimal pacing in that 3:37, he's still paced the whole way, so I think he could've run about 3 secs faster. 5 secs seems to be a stretch for me.
For the 5k, I concede he may be better than 13:10, but not sure about 13:00, definitely not 12:55. He's already laboring, while that was not an all-out effort, but should be 90%+. With even pacing and better weather I would have him at somewhere between 13:00-13:10 right now.
12:53.6 pace for his final 4k, 56.78 last lap. Definitely in ~12:55 shape.
like the steeplechase, 10K and 1500 the race will be slow, probably very slow. We will all act surprised by this, like we do every year.
Fisher, Mehary, and Young have no chance in a 13:20 race. Look for randos we barely know to make the podium... people who can close in 51.
My pick for gold is Isaac Kimeli of Belgium. I like how he looked in that European race where he blew away Grant Fisher in the rain. I'm picking Hocker for second based on his performance at the U.S. trials and Gressier for third because he has demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher, Mehary, Almgren, and Young.
I don't remember which other Ethiopians are in the race, but I doubt any of them can close in 51.
Others:
Laros is a 800/1500 guy. I don't think he will hold up well in this heat/humidity after running three 1500s and one 5000. Also I think he may have peaked a month ago.
Jakob may make the final but he doesn't have the fitness to medal.
like the steeplechase, 10K and 1500 the race will be slow, probably very slow. We will all act surprised by this, like we do every year.
Fisher, Mehary, and Young have no chance in a 13:20 race. Look for randos we barely know to make the podium... people who can close in 51.
My pick for gold is Isaac Kimeli of Belgium. I like how he looked in that European race where he blew away Grant Fisher in the rain. I'm picking Hocker for second based on his performance at the U.S. trials and Gressier for third because he has demonstrated the ability to outkick Fisher, Mehary, Almgren, and Young.
I don't remember which other Ethiopians are in the race, but I doubt any of them can close in 51.
Others:
Laros is a 800/1500 guy. I don't think he will hold up well in this heat/humidity after running three 1500s and one 5000. Also I think he may have peaked a month ago.
Jakob may make the final but he doesn't have the fitness to medal.
Not bad.
For the flack you got for your picks 3/3 medalists is solid 🔥
How many of them have a faster last lap? I think that may be a more relevant metric but maybe I'm wrong and someone takes it out hard. Nevertheless I like Cole's chances because his 7:23 show pretty good strength.
Depends on the pace. In a 13:40 race? Not many. In a 13:10 race? Probably most of them.
Hocker’s 12:57 two weeks after that 7:23 shows he falls off after 3k. He has good strength for a 1500m runner, but 12:57 isn’t getting the job done in a strength test against legitimate 5000m specialists.