And yet, when Neguse lost on the line the other day, I was criticised for saying he'd never win anything major due to not having big-match mentality...
Lots of people have been saying it was a dumb idea for Yared to lead from the front and there's no way that was going to work.
It seems like we're applying some hindsight bias here, especially since this exact tactic actually worked at the Trials last year. There are differences around the margins - being a second quicker last year, worse conditions today, but overall it was the same strategy, and had worked in the past.
Biggest difference today is just that the top of the field was better/deeper
Did Yared not watch Jakob at Paris last year??? Same strategy, same result (except one place further back). Times have changed and you can’t just run away from the field anymore.
Why didn't he just run a 3:27? is he stupid?
It didn't work for Jakob so he probably figured that wouldn't work.
Lots of people have been saying it was a dumb idea for Yared to lead from the front and there's no way that was going to work.
It seems like we're applying some hindsight bias here, especially since this exact tactic actually worked at the Trials last year. There are differences around the margins - being a second quicker last year, worse conditions today, but overall it was the same strategy, and had worked in the past.
Biggest difference today is just that the top of the field was better/deeper
it's not hindsight. people knew going in that the top of the field was better/deeper today.
And yet, when Neguse lost on the line the other day, I was criticised for saying he'd never win anything major due to not having big-match mentality...
I’d still criticize that take. He’s won NCAAs, USAs, Diamond Leagues, basically everything except Worlds or the Olympics. He didn’t “only win the bronze” in Paris or place 5th today due to lacking “big match mentality.” Winning a global gold, for one, is just really hard to do and the chance comes around once a year.
PK keeps on doping. Has dropped seven seconds in his PR in one year at 28. USA!!!!
That’s the same improvement Hocker made last year… proven recipe !
I’m as skeptical about outlier performances as anyone but Cole ran 3:31.40 at the Tokyo Olympics at 21 years old, was injured in 2022, ran 3:30.70 in 2023 at 23 years old, and then ran 3:27.65 in the race of his life at the Olympics last year. So it was less than 4 full seconds of improvement over 3 years, if we’re looking at the facts.
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I watched Strand and Martin throughout today. After attending ACC and NCAA indoors I became convinced Strand was a special talent and Martin a more workmanlike version who needs everything to unfold correctly for him.
Martin was sitting in 6th and Strand in 5th today, during the midsection of the race. Once Strand had settled into 5th I was fairly certain he would qualify. He can screw up the tactics occasionally, like the bizarre decision to race like Krissy Gear at NCAA outdoor finals. But 5th on the rail was perfect, especially since the pace was fast enough and not a men's version of Hiltz leading throughout at 4:04.
Extremely risky for Yared Nuguse to lead all the way with Ethan Strand in the race. That was my thought process throughout. I concede I wasn't thinking about Koech at all. Until today I don't think the three Olympians from last year were factoring Strand nearly enough.
When he's placed himself in proper position he's like a somewhat older somewhat lesser version of Niels Laros.
Only saw your comment because it was replied to because to be honest you like to pick fights but don't really have the knowledge to be doing so. But I'll make an exception this one time.
First of all, Strand has nothing to do with it. This is about comparing Nuguse's workload across his pro seasons and not him to anyone else. Last time I checked, Strand has been a pro for all of 2 months? Nuguse has been a pro for 3 years and those 3 years has undoubtedly contained a lot more training and training at a high intensity which has yielded the results they have (multiple sub 3.30's, a 3.43 mile, a 3.27 1500m, DL wins, world indoor records).
Secondly lets look at the 14 races of Strand this outdoor season because we know what Nuguses were - all extremely high quality races against world and Olympic champions, every single race. Every GST race involved the top 3 from Tokyo, throw in the mix the 800m silver medalist and reigning World Champ in Marco Arop, plus Wanyonyi in Kingston and then the world class field as always at Prefontaine. Not one race where he was by far the dominant guy and could just maybe coast along for 2/3 of a race, work on his final lap finish etc - every race at maximum focus and effort (and include his indoors with that too). When I look at Strand I see 13/14 races in the college ranks and not all of them NCAA final level. We really comparing racing Olympic and World champions in pro races to the ACC outdoors or the Duke Twilight? A number of his races are even NCAA prelim level races.
So how do I "explain" Strand? 1) Has been a pro about 36 months less than Yared 2) Has had nowhere near the same level of competition day in day out as Yared 3) Isn't Yared Nuguse.
Try and use a little more thought and diligence. You can respond but I won't be seeing it.
Strand actually has a lot to do with it because he’s one of the runners who got a world championship team spot over Nuguse today. Strand (and J. Koech) leveling up this year is a much more relevant factor for Nuguse finishing 5th today than Nuguse running a series of 3:34-3:35 races and 800m races in the spring.
The biggest reasons for Nuguse finishing 5th today are:
The Big 3 of USA 1500m running has become a Big 5. Last year, 3:31.53 was good enough for 3rd at the U.S. championships. Nuguse ran faster than that today and got 5th.
Nuguse ran significantly harder in his semifinal this year than he did in either of his semis at the U.S. championships the past two years.
Nuguse ran a bit too hard his first 1200m in the final today, particularly in light of how hard he ran his semi. He split 56.23-58.36-55.95 today compared to 56.32-58.99-56.03 last year. Every lap was faster this year, with significantly less of a “break” on the second lap.
Nuguse’s last GST race was June 1st. He had just one race between then and the start of these championships, a span of nearly two months. I’m not buying the notion that he came into these championships tired from racing.
Meanwhile, a collegian who completed three consecutive racing seasons while juggling training with an academic course load shined today.
Re: your comment about me being someone who “likes to pick fights,” I think it’s more accurate to say you’re someone who unfairly attacks athletes on here, and I’m someone who defends athletes from unfair attacks. One recent example: you created a thread on the “curious case of Quincy Hall” in which you cast aspersions on Hall’s 400m progression, and I factually explained that he was primarily a hurdler until 2023 and had only run the 400m once outdoors from 2020-2022.
It sounds like you’ve decided to block me on here, which is a rather weak way to respond to someone who has differing opinions than you. Perhaps if you were more open to different perspectives, you might realize you’re not the know-it-all you think you are.
Yared just ran a dumb race. You can't lead from the front against those massive kickers. Losing strategy but he's still in insane shape.
I disagree. He is good enough to win the race that way - he did essentially the same thing at Pre and even though he lost to Laros he still beat Hocker by a second and ran under 3.46.0.
I think the issue today was his shape. His tank was getting dangerously close to empty after what, 3 big indoor efforts, 6 Grand Slam races and Prefontaine. An unnecessary 3.32 in the heats put him right in the danger zone and he just looked drained today. He didn't look relaxed at all after 800m (looked strained) and looked even worse after 1200.
Nuguse outdoor races before trials last 3 seasons:
No Hocker ran a 53 second last 400 in a 3:27 Olympic Record, when he wasn’t able to even do that in 3:31 races in the past. That’s why we call him HGHocker. Guys on the letsrun boards saying otherwise are on full doses of copium.
Goes home DEVASTATED rojo? Is that really necessary? I mean you profess to be the best coach in the history of the Ivy league, but in reality you're not even in the top 500 coaches in the country. No one ever said that you went home DEVASTATED do they?
Rojo, you need to re-evaluate what you're trying to accomplish. There are only so many bridges you can burn. Just some constructive criticism to counter your destructive impulses. You can do better.
Is this your first day at LetsRun.com? Are you aware of what a sub-culture is?
That's a term that is common on the website and I'm most certainly not going to apologize for using it it.
1) It's factually correct. You don't think they aren't devastated, right now? Check out the QOD on the homepage.
2) One of the reasons our sport struggles for popularity is no one thinks about the fans. LetsRun is the home of running fans. I think about the fans - and try to entertain them - on a daily basis. In actuality, "Goes home devastated" really was the ONLY title was going to use when the race was over.It absolutely had to be used. There were others who started threads also using the devastated title. I just merged them into this one.
I can't believe you wrote "there are only so many bridges I can burn" like I did something wrong. I honestly don't really care what Kessler or Nuguse think of it. This is a world-famous fan forum. If they don't like, they don't have to read it.
Kessler is a big boy. He was guaranteed MILLIONS of dollars out of HS. In the real world, fans - remember the word is short for fanatic - can say whatever the hell they want. I don't like it when people are needlessly mean. I can't stand one talk radio host her in Baltimore who is always critical. And I can't stand a lot of people on Orioles twitter as they are ridiculously negative and don't understand our market situation. But I wasn't being mean - just factual.
3) You are an absolute moron if you don't think I (thanks to John Kellogg so call us co-coaches as without him I'm nothing) was one of the top 500 coaches in the country
But I'll be happy to admit I went home devastated from meets all the time. Every October for 10 years in a row when the conference xc meet was held.
But EVERYTHING John Kellogg believed has been proven to be correct over the last 25 years. 1) High/low training is the way to go and 2) Distance running is tempo/threshold work.
Is your training repeatable? ANd are you at altitude? Those are the two things he believed in and now the whole world agrees and look at the times.