Wise Old Man wrote:
Very good analysis. I’m thinking he will have even more of a cushion this year and so a little more room for error. Yes, if he goes out way too fast without pacers, it won’t matter, but if he misses the perfect race by a little, he’ll still be too far ahead to be caught at the end even if the others are closing, or they will even have less left at the end to pass him if they stuck with him throughout.
Full disclosure - I like Jakob, I like that he fronts up and goes for it every time and I picked him to win in Paris because after Eugene and Budapest and the form he showed going in, I was confident he could get it right.
But respectfully, and this is just my opinion, I don't see where this extra cushion is coming from. Because even if we are assuming he is still improving and increasing his career potential at 1500 (and remember, as much as we hate to concede this sometimes, at one point he won't be improving it) - so are every one of his major rivals. We all know the results from the weekend - Nuguse, Hocker, Hobbs all looked great and look like they are also. Kerr no idea but at 27 it's doubtful he's really improving much more over the 1500m at this point in his career anyway.
So even if we assume he's improved and so have his rivals, his issue remains the same just in a slightly different context. The degree of difficulty is the same, the "buffer" is no different.
I still believe in it. I don't think it's impossible. I would like to see him win in Tokyo because it would be a great story and I like great stories. It's just a monumental task but it's the way it should be anyway for the title of the best 1500m in the world.