We learned some from the four XC races with major contenders this week. OSU is going to be dominant again. East African runners, esp. Kenyans, will dominate the top ten (10 out of the top 13 runners (Birnbaum 14th) at the meet where OSU had Musau run 22:56 and Schoppe was fifth on the team). Oregon does not look like a national contender, at least not with their first guy, Birnbaum, 14th and others way back. NAU ran about a minute faster at the Dave Murray Invite than last year, with about five guys under 23:40 and three ahead of Brodey Hasty's winning time last year, and it was a young team that they sent out there (Grotenhuis and Prosser tempoed 5k in 14:13 and dropped, while Colin Sahlman, Kang Nyoak, and a few other top guys didn't run; Aaron Sahlman is finally healthy but probably won't race until outdoors). Colorado does not look like a podium team, maybe not top ten. Hansen looks very good. Stanford is a lot deeper and performed very well but probably benefited from a relatively weak field. So, that's a fair amount.
Winning time 19:55.7. NOBODY is touching Parker's 19:17.2 for a long time. Weather was bad last year, too. Puts into perspective how great that performance was.
Valby could have run much faster last year in better conditions.
Thus, her 19:17.2 CR is readily achievable by someone with equal or better talent who races the Zimmer course on a good day.
Enter Pamela Kosgei, much-hyped sister of ex-marathon WR holder Bridget Kosgei.
Pamela just ran 19:50 on OK State's much-more-difficult Greiner Family course -- in her collegiate debut.
She & NM teammates are entered in the Pre--Nats meet on October 19th.
Given decent weather & firm footing, Valby's record may last exactly 1 year.
We learned some from the four XC races with major contenders this week. OSU is going to be dominant again. East African runners, esp. Kenyans, will dominate the top ten (10 out of the top 13 runners (Birnbaum 14th) at the meet where OSU had Musau run 22:56 and Schoppe was fifth on the team) . . .Stanford is a lot deeper and performed very well but probably benefited from a relatively weak field. So, that's a fair amount.
Yes to all above.
Will add, observed OK State, BYU, AR -- and now Stanford -- have separated themselves as the top-4 podium teams.
NAU will likely show itself to be a podium-contending team in a few weeks at Pre Nationals. However, until then, have to put them in the next group including IO State, NM, OR, Wake Forest. Then North Carolina & WA.
Quick perusal of schedules shows OK State, BYU, OR, North Carolina all missing from Pre Nats.
However, NAU & Stanford will have their chance to prove their worth as podium contenders when they face off against AR. Also competing will be IO State, NM, Wake Forest, and WA.
Interesting subplot will be the individual battles between heralded 2nd-year runners Rocky Hansen & Hunter Jones/WF, Tyrone Gorze/WA, Kole Mathison/CO, Devan Kipyego/IO State, Noah Jenkins/SUU, and L&L/Stanford.
Winning time 19:55.7. NOBODY is touching Parker's 19:17.2 for a long time. Weather was bad last year, too. Puts into perspective how great that performance was.
Valby could have run much faster last year in better conditions.
Thus, her 19:17.2 CR is readily achievable by someone with equal or better talent who races the Zimmer course on a good day.
Enter Pamela Kosgei, much-hyped sister of ex-marathon WR holder Bridget Kosgei.
Pamela just ran 19:50 on OK State's much-more-difficult Greiner Family course -- in her collegiate debut.
She & NM teammates are entered in the Pre--Nats meet on October 19th.
Given decent weather & firm footing, Valby's record may last exactly 1 year.
At 2022 Natty’s, the dated Valby model ran that OK State course about 20 seconds faster than Kosgei just did, but in the freezing cold, running less-than-optimum tangents. And the Valby that set the Nutty course record was an upgraded, faster model. Thus, I doubt Valby’s Nutty record goes down this season.
Valby could have run much faster last year in better conditions.
Thus, her 19:17.2 CR is readily achievable by someone with equal or better talent who races the Zimmer course on a good day.
Enter Pamela Kosgei, much-hyped sister of ex-marathon WR holder Bridget Kosgei.
Pamela just ran 19:50 on OK State's much-more-difficult Greiner Family course -- in her collegiate debut.
She & NM teammates are entered in the Pre--Nats meet on October 19th.
Given decent weather & firm footing, Valby's record may last exactly 1 year.
At 2022 Natty’s, the dated Valby model ran that OK State course about 20 seconds faster than Kosgei just did, but in the freezing cold, running less-than-optimum tangents. And the Valby that set the Nutty course record was an upgraded, faster model. Thus, I doubt Valby’s Nutty record goes down this season.
I would not dismiss the chance if the weather is good. Besides Kosgei there will be several other very fast 5000m runners at PreNats - Hilda and Halladay-Lowry. Throw in the Clemson and W VA runners for good measure. The question is if someone decides to make it fast from the get go like Valby did.
btw I posted the video of the Jamboree race on that thread. Kosgei did not go out fast and did not separate from the last of the runners until the climb at about 2500 m. It looked to me she was 20 seconds slower to that point than Valby was in 2022. So she match Valby and Tuohy's speed the rest of the way with no competition.
I would not dismiss the chance if the weather is good. Besides Kosgei there will be several other very fast 5000m runners at PreNats - Hilda and Halladay-Lowry. Throw in the Clemson and W VA runners for good measure. The question is if someone decides to make it fast from the get go like Valby did.
btw I posted the video of the Jamboree race on that thread. Kosgei did not go out fast and did not separate from the last of the runners until the climb at about 2500 m. It looked to me she was 20 seconds slower to that point than Valby was in 2022. So she match Valby and Tuohy's speed the rest of the way with no competition.
Noticed that as well.
Appeared she just realized, "I can run faster than that," then took off.
Agree with poster above that it's unlikely Valby's Zimmer CR record will be broken at Pre Nats given how fast it is regardless of conditions. Kosgei & Lemngole may have the talent but not the motivation to be chasing records at that meet.
However, simply disagree with the "Nobody is touching . . . " comment. That is an absurd "I can predict the future" statement. No, you cannot. Not given the quality of new college runners coming up from the high school ranks as well as coming over from Africa and elsewhere.
If you want a Valby record to drool over, my choice would be her 18:55.2 NCAA Champs win last year @ Panorama Farms. She ran faster at other meets, but that is likely the first sub-19 by a college woman on a legit 6k course.
Wasn't so long ago, only a handful of elite women would run sub-20 at any time on any course during the season.
Since the Zimmer & Panorama courses appear to be about the same in difficulty; i.e., pretty fast, sub-19 is probably what Parker could have run at Nuttycombe last year if the conditions were ideal.