Nothing against Wolfe's performance, but I don't get comments like this. If he was in 12:55 shape, why didn't he run that? Your time is your time. You're not in 12:55 shape until you actually run 12:55.
Becaues yesterday's race was run in 81 degree temps.
He ran 13:13 in December off of xc training, then didn't do any time trials during the season. I actually think that's fine. The odds of a 20-year-old making the 5000 team were remote if you were coach Milt planning out the season in December.
The reality is if he starting worrying about times/Olympics instead of just getting ready to be in supreme shape in June, he may not have finished 3rd in the Trials or won NCAAs.
That being said, if he doesn't go to Paris, it will because they had that abomination of a race at Wake Forest back on April 19. In that race, Wolfe CRUSHED the collegiate competition winning in 13:27 (2nd was 13:36) but that was the same meet where Cole Hocker was the only finisher in the pro 5000. I talked to John Hayes - the Wake Forest director - about why there were two separate races and he said they couldn't let the college kids race in Hocker's section as the college coaches feared some of them might have tried to run with Hocker and blown up and not made it regionals.
If Wolfe had been in that race and just hung with Hocker and run like 13:13 (Hocker ran 13:08), he'd be in the top 45 but there was no way of knowing that at the time.
You could make an arguement that there should be conservative (I.e. like half of what the ncaa are handing out for altitude) adjustments for heat and altitude. or adjustments of a half dozen seconds for races after qualification heats. But to some extent isn’t it a bit sad that the dude ran a whole season and didn’t have a single race where he could have gone for the big PR?
Becaues yesterday's race was run in 81 degree temps.
He ran 13:13 in December off of xc training, then didn't do any time trials during the season. I actually think that's fine. The odds of a 20-year-old making the 5000 team were remote if you were coach Milt planning out the season in December.
The reality is if he starting worrying about times/Olympics instead of just getting ready to be in supreme shape in June, he may not have finished 3rd in the Trials or won NCAAs.
That being said, if he doesn't go to Paris, it will because they had that abomination of a race at Wake Forest back on April 19. In that race, Wolfe CRUSHED the collegiate competition winning in 13:27 (2nd was 13:36) but that was the same meet where Cole Hocker was the only finisher in the pro 5000. I talked to John Hayes - the Wake Forest director - about why there were two separate races and he said they couldn't let the college kids race in Hocker's section as the college coaches feared some of them might have tried to run with Hocker and blown up and not made it regionals.
If Wolfe had been in that race and just hung with Hocker and run like 13:13 (Hocker ran 13:08), he'd be in the top 45 but there was no way of knowing that at the time.
You could make an arguement that there should be conservative (I.e. like half of what the ncaa are handing out for altitude) adjustments for heat and altitude. or adjustments of a half dozen seconds for races after qualification heats. But to some extent isn’t it a bit sad that the dude ran a whole season and didn’t have a single race where he could have gone for the big PR?
Somewhat agree. But. He was in the same race as Graham Blanks when he broke the ncaa record and achieved the standard.
To summarize, he needs four scratches. These guys below are already projected to come out of the rankings.
Wildschutt (10,000 only)
Beamish (Steeple only)
Young (DNS trials 5,000)
Teare (12th trials 5,000)
So that's four spots Parker moves up - to me it looks more likely than not Parker goes, right? I've seen several people ask but still have not seen an answer as to when selections are finalized. Does anyone know?
This is what I suggested earlier in the thread only to get only downvotes. But it seems plausible to me. If Young and Teare don't count, I'd like to know why. Why wouldn't the US scratch anyone above who they want (have selected) to go?
Incorrect.
He's the equivalent of #46. You don't remove both Young and Teare as you have to put Nur on the team. So take one of them off and he's #45. He needs 3 scratches.
1) Wilschutt 10k only
That is the only one that I'm certain of.
2) Beamish - Yes he wants to do the steeple but I'm not ruling out him entering the 5000 as well. There is no honest effort rule. He can enter both (in case he gets tripped in the steeple) and then scratch the 5000 if he makes the Steeple final. I mean he may realize he's got no shot in the 5000 so not bother. If he gets tripped in the steeple, he may just be fine with saying that's it. I've asked Jon to ask Ritz if he plans on entering the 5000.
Broken body? He ran 13:02 in December, got a stress reaction in his femoral shaft due to al leg length discrepancy that is aggravated by running on the indoor track and missed a few weeks, and is in great shape in July. It's not really that shocking, is it?
Ever heard of cross training? Parker Valby and Grant Fisher can teach you about it. I mean Fisher went from bombing the Trials last year due to a stress reaction to running a 7:25 AR a few months later.
Jakob missed weeks/months of training this winter as well and is similarly back in shape.
Blanks said he was "off his feet for a couple of months" in his post race interview. And at 6:30 he goes in depth: 6 weeks of no running then 2-3 weeks in the AlterG treadmill before easing back into real running. It wasn't nothing.
I didn't say it was nothing. I just thought the guy was insulting him by saying he had a broken body .Gibby told me he's been running for 11 weeks. Huge talent, great personality.
Once Wolfe broke into third I knew he would remain there. The sustained finish is his strength. That's been blatantly obvious following him all year and dating to last season.
It's sick as a Canes fan who follows the ACC closely. The two biggest what ifs of trials are Markezich failing on the final water jump of the steeplechase and Wolfe not managing a race somewhere to move high enough in the rankings. It was never a question of ability.
At least USC got many through, including most of the borderline situations like TT Terry and Anna Cockrell. That's my long ago alma mater.
The other one is if Matsatsa doesn’t block Cohens path to the bell at 400m, how does he end up? I feel like top 3 was still a stretch but he lost some valuable momentum and a step or two. Maybe he finishes more around Koech.
reading all this back and forth about Wolfe and Blanks all I can think is how it was right there for the taking for Cooper Teare. He's seriously gotta be crushed he couldn't run a 13:10.
he ran a 12:54 in May, literally a month later runs almost 50 seconds slower. heat or not, he'll be having nightmares about this for the next 4 years.
That really was shocking, as was Hocker being a complete nonfactor (though not as big a deal obviously since he’d already made the team). There was a lot of weirdness in that race when you think about it.
From grahams interview “But if they go in my favor, I’m going to take that spot. I think I can represent the United States really well. I’ll go out there and hurt for all of us.”.
From grahams interview “But if they go in my favor, I’m going to take that spot. I think I can represent the United States really well. I’ll go out there and hurt for all of us.”.
damn.
Whatever happens, this two guys give me hope for America. Pure class
You could make an arguement that there should be conservative (I.e. like half of what the ncaa are handing out for altitude) adjustments for heat and altitude. or adjustments of a half dozen seconds for races after qualification heats. But to some extent isn’t it a bit sad that the dude ran a whole season and didn’t have a single race where he could have gone for the big PR?
Somewhat agree. But. He was in the same race as Graham Blanks when he broke the ncaa record and achieved the standard.
Correct, and he ran 13:13, but World Athletics doens't give him any credit for that. If that race was in his Road to Paris ranking, he'd easily be in the top 42. But you are only allowed to use one indoor race for your 5k ranking.
It seems Wolfe may not know if he's eligible until all the national committees submit their entries and we see who's scratched. But how would USATF know whether to enter him in the 5k if they don't know whether he'll get in? Are they allowed to enter him provisionally, with Blanks as a back up? Or could we lose out on our third spot if they guess wrong?
It seems Wolfe may not know if he's eligible until all the national committees submit their entries and we see who's scratched. But how would USATF know whether to enter him in the 5k if they don't know whether he'll get in? Are they allowed to enter him provisionally, with Blanks as a back up? Or could we lose out on our third spot if they guess wrong?
Unless something crazy happens, I think it’s Blanks.
2) Beamish - Yes he wants to do the steeple but I'm not ruling out him entering the 5000 as well. There is no honest effort rule. He can enter both (in case he gets tripped in the steeple) and then scratch …
Are you sure about the Honest Effort rule for the Olympics, RoJo, because WA has that rule in their rule book:
Failure to Participate At all competitions under paragraphs 1.1, 1.2, 1.3 and 1.6 of the International Competition definition, an athlete shall be excluded from participation in all further events (including other events in which they are simultaneously participating) in the competition, including relays, in cases where: 4.4.1 final confirmation was given that the athlete would start in an event but then failed to participate; Note: A fixed time for the final confirmation of participation shall be published in advance. 4.4.2 an athlete qualified in any Qualification Round of an event for further participation in that event but then failed to participate further; 4.4.3 an athlete failed to compete honestly with bona fide effort. The relevant Referee will decide on this and the corresponding reference must be made in the official results. Note: The situation foreseen in Rule 4.4.3 of the Technical Rules will not apply to individual events within Combined Events. However, a medical certificate, provided by and based on an examination of the athlete by the Medical Delegate appointed under Rule 6 of the Competition Rules or, if no Medical Delegate has been so appointed, by a medical doctor so designated by 4 World Athletics Technical Rules (1 November 2019) Book C - C2.1 the Organisers, may be accepted as sufficient reason to accept that the athlete became unable to compete after confirmations closed or after competing in a previous round but will be able to compete in further events (except Combined Events individual events) on a subsequent day of the competition. Other justifiable reasons (e.g. factors independent of the athlete's own actions, such as problems with the official transport system) may, after confirmation, also be accepted by the Technical Delegate(s).
Somewhat agree. But. He was in the same race as Graham Blanks when he broke the ncaa record and achieved the standard.
Correct, and he ran 13:13, but World Athletics doens't give him any credit for that. If that race was in his Road to Paris ranking, he'd easily be in the top 42. But you are only allowed to use one indoor race for your 5k ranking.
His average score is now 1207 (1241, 1230, 1152) but he needed 1218 to tie Uruguay's Santiage Catrofe for the last spot
Looks like Blanks makes the team
If those points are right it means he is 46th, with 42 in. Since 3 of those first 42 sots are American, he could replace one of them if ranked high enough. This means he needs 3 scratches from countries who don't have another athlete ranked high enough to replace their scratch. Not super likely, but certainly possible. In otherwords, its a wait and seee.
I get the WA ranking/Oly qualifying system (as much as anyone does/can) but what happened to the eye test?
- Faster last lap than Nur and Fisher (ONE OF THESE GUYS IS THE MF AMERICAN RECORD HOLDER)
- Beat the brakes off of Nico Young and Graham Blanks on multiple occasions this year
- Has a solid body of racing all season
- Finished the race on empty
Is he a medal threat? Absolutely not. Very few Americans are at distance races outside of Fisher and Nur. Does that mean that he should be left off the team? No. He beat people when it counted both at NCAAs and now the OT. If that doesn't buy his case, I don't know what can. It would be a stain on the US Trials process to take Blanks.
I get the WA ranking/Oly qualifying system (as much as anyone does/can) but what happened to the eye test?
- Faster last lap than Nur and Fisher (ONE OF THESE GUYS IS THE MF AMERICAN RECORD HOLDER)
- Beat the brakes off of Nico Young and Graham Blanks on multiple occasions this year
- Has a solid body of racing all season
- Finished the race on empty
Is he a medal threat? Absolutely not. Very few Americans are at distance races outside of Fisher and Nur. Does that mean that he should be left off the team? No. He beat people when it counted both at NCAAs and now the OT. If that doesn't buy his case, I don't know what can. It would be a stain on the US Trials process to take Blanks.
Great post. Agree wholeheartedly. And if it came down to it, Wolfe should go instead of Blanks and Blanks should be ok with it.
I get the WA ranking/Oly qualifying system (as much as anyone does/can) but what happened to the eye test?
- Faster last lap than Nur and Fisher (ONE OF THESE GUYS IS THE MF AMERICAN RECORD HOLDER)
- Beat the brakes off of Nico Young and Graham Blanks on multiple occasions this year
- Has a solid body of racing all season
- Finished the race on empty
Is he a medal threat? Absolutely not. Very few Americans are at distance races outside of Fisher and Nur. Does that mean that he should be left off the team? No. He beat people when it counted both at NCAAs and now the OT. If that doesn't buy his case, I don't know what can. It would be a stain on the US Trials process to take Blanks.
The same qualifying process applies to all. Everyone knows the rules. Blanks has the standard. He achieved in a race that included Wolfe. This is why the standard is important. It’s not a judgement call on who is in better shape. if he doesn’t have the the World ranking or standard you cant send him.
I get the WA ranking/Oly qualifying system (as much as anyone does/can) but what happened to the eye test?
- Faster last lap than Nur and Fisher (ONE OF THESE GUYS IS THE MF AMERICAN RECORD HOLDER)
- Beat the brakes off of Nico Young and Graham Blanks on multiple occasions this year
- Has a solid body of racing all season
- Finished the race on empty
Is he a medal threat? Absolutely not. Very few Americans are at distance races outside of Fisher and Nur. Does that mean that he should be left off the team? No. He beat people when it counted both at NCAAs and now the OT. If that doesn't buy his case, I don't know what can. It would be a stain on the US Trials process to take Blanks.
The same qualifying process applies to all. Everyone knows the rules. Blanks has the standard. He achieved in a race that included Wolfe. This is why the standard is important. It’s not a judgement call on who is in better shape. if he doesn’t have the the World ranking or standard you cant send him.
But he achieved the standard in an indoor race, which the WA ranking system doesn’t think too highly of since they’ll only allow one indoor race to count. It’s a very arbitrary system cobbling together points from various races including xc. Parker Wolfe beat Blanks in the race that mattered. So, if enough people in front of Wolfe drop (they may not), then it should be up to the US who gets sent, and Blanks should be ok, more than ok, with the choice to send the guy who beat him at the trials. Both of these guys are capable of the qualifying time outdoors in the right race and conditions.
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