What is the best race strategy for Valby in 5000 final?

2k 'warmup' and then just blast 3k. She isn't going to drop ESP or Cranny, but can Schweizer hold up? We'll see. She doesn't have to out run the bear, just Schweizer.

Time doesn't matter tonight. Valby isn't the fastest kicker and doesn't have a ton of experience, but she's good at holding a hard pace from a long way out. If I'm her coach, I'm not complicating things for her today or even putting her in a position to over think things. I'm just telling her to go out there and get herself in a good position towards the front in the second lap. Then just go by feel, if she's in the lead early, just run smooth and easy for the first 2-3k, it can be fast but she shouldn't strain. Then when she feels ready, maybe 2k out make a move to string out the field and run for home. Don't worry about where you finish or who's doing what, just hope the field breaks apart enough that you end up in the top 3. Other's will get desperate and may make moves they can't sustain, if she employs this tactic, it is her best shot at making the team and running within herself in a manner she's familiar with. She can't control how good others are right now, but she can force them to beat her at her best.

We know Valby is currently in 14:50 shape or better on a good day. If she runs her race and has a good day (regardless of time since this is a race not a time trial), she's got a good shot at top 3 and anyone who beats her will have to also be at or near the top of their game as well. Only 6 women in this field have lifetime bests faster than Valby ran in the last month and only 3 of them are more than 10 seconds faster.

Schweizer and Cranny aren’t running anything near their PRs tonight. They aren’t in that type of shape currently.

With that strategy, Valby would be run down during the last part of the race.Theoretically, she should run the pace that she thinks will put enough of a gap on Schweizer to hold her off, and nothing faster than that.

Again, some of you are projecting strategies that people with slower PRs don’t do. I don’t recall anyone ever attempting such a feat in a championship race, and Valby is not going to push the pace, with the intention of running a PR.

I think Donaghu, Smith, Morgan, Andrews and possibly others will try to cover any move Valby makes. They know their best chance of making the team is being in a place to make a move in the last lap or two as carnage happens.

I think after the semis, everyone in the field realize that both ESP and Cranny are in their sub 4:20 mile shape right now (yeah Elise only ran 4:02 at Pre, but was she fresh and peaked?) and their best shot is just try to be in a place to make a move in the last lap and hope they have the best move.

Why is everyone dunking on Karissa? Saying no way Valby can beat Cranny or ESP, but Karissa is fair game? She may not be in PR shape, but she doesn’t need to be because her PR is 30 seconds faster than everyone except Cranny, ESP and Andrews. She also has a ton of championship racing experience and has probably tapered since the 5k two weeks ago.

I don’t know that it is dunking on Karissa to say that she doesn’t look to be in the same class as ESP and Cranny right now, and I don’t think it’s dunking on Kessler to say he doesn’t look to be in the same class as Hocker and Nuguse.

I agree. Valby's best chance is to stay on the outside and go right to the front like she did last Friday, not letting anyone slow her down, and run her best pace from then on to the finish like she did in the NCAA Championship Final.

As long as she runs her best pace, the only one I feel who'd have a chance to finish ahead of her would be ESP, but any lag in the pace would give more chance to the others.

By far, her best chance of making the team is in the 10000m. Since when, do runners become desperate in a race? “Only” 6 runners have faster PRs, you say. There is also a chance that other runners will have a career race tonight.

Current fitness? Andrews looked like she was ready to puke a lung after the ridiculously slow race. Struggled I. The last lap. She’s not in the same level of fitness as at least 6-8 others in the mix.

I see I’m being smoked 11-1 in voting for my post, but you Valby fans are in for a rude awakening, tonight.

Either go for sub-14:50 and a top three with everything she has.

Or...

Conserve and put all eggs in the 10,000 basket where she is more likely to grab a top three.

Valby is fun to watch because she doesn't conserve. She'll probably go balls to the wall tonight, especially given the favorable weather conditions.

Push the pace and make it an honest race. Then hope that only 2 runners pass her on the last lap.

She actually has a very good shot to qualify in the 10000m. The normal logic would be to conserve energy, but that presumes Valby actually gets tired, evidence of which has been conspicuously absent for the past year. If she actually has a fatigued race, I will reassess.

Like Ayana here:

Using the strategy of 'sit and kick' is not 'honest'? It's a RACE. If EPSP and others have more speed, there is nothing dishonest about using it to win the race. Honest race, my arse.

She knows that she needs the standard and will probably run a time trial effort to hit the standard. Odds are that only 3-4 other runners will be able to meet or beat that pace. If she tucks in with the pack and lets the race be slow and tactical, she will have to kick hard with a pack of 7-8 runners and won't even have the standard if she makes the team. So, it seems pretty obvious that she has to run for the trials standard and then see who else is around the last two laps. Also, I think ESP, Karissa, Josette and Cranny are more than happy to run a fast race and be clear of the pack early on. If Valby doesn't go out fast, one of the other four will.