The great thing about XC is you can speculate all you want about a course but if you are not there you have no real idea. Rocky’s 4 of Rocky’s top 5 girls did not PR - nor did Rocky’s top runner. So maybe it’s a different story :-)
Well, next Thursday is a fast course (and also a tad short). If Rocky replicates the result, I'll be a believer. Rocky raced 45 non-freshmen boys at the Jerome meet. 36 of them ran all-time bests. 80% of their boys is a ridiculous number and defies logic.
I know Jeff is very, very good at developing talent (maybe the best in the state), but this is also the first time they don't look absolutely loaded for the future at the first meet. Last year at Caldwell, they had 15:22, 16:25, 16:29, 16:29, 16:35, 17:00, and 17:37 returning. This year, they have 15:40, 16:18, 17:15, 17:22, 17:26, 17:31, and 17:34 returning. 16:33 vs. 17:01 for top 7. 2022 saw 15:57, 16:12, 16:18, 16:46, 17:04, 17:30, and 17:40 returning, and that was with no Heemeyer running (16:46 average). If Heemeyer wins it in the same time as Stockett, they would have averaged 16:27 for returners.
Maybe Caldwell will look totally different than what I expect, but first meet to first meet, it's interesting to see.
Max's strava shows 8:44 for 2 miles. 400 splits of 63, 64, 64, 64, 63, 63, 65, 64, 63, 61. Even if you push all of them up a second to account for decimals, he ran sub 8:40 through 3200 and closed in 2:06. Averaged 4:17.2.
lol. CDA gonna stomp everyone, even without Rietze. They very well might go 3 in the top 5 scorers and 4 in the top 10. If Rietze is back for state, they might score under 30.
Max's strava shows 8:44 for 2 miles. 400 splits of 63, 64, 64, 64, 63, 63, 65, 64, 63, 61. Even if you push all of them up a second to account for decimals, he ran sub 8:40 through 3200 and closed in 2:06. Averaged 4:17.2.
lol. CDA gonna stomp everyone, even without Rietze. They very well might go 3 in the top 5 scorers and 4 in the top 10. If Rietze is back for state, they might score under 30.
If the Strava data is true, CDA is going to win NXR and it's going to be most dominant than last year.
Bigs things ahead for this CDA squad: a top 5 at NXN is not out of the question.
big if true. Not sure I’m willing to believe that he shattered the state record in a 4k time trial split. Strava wigs out sometimes but clearly he’s in decent shape.
Good depth pieces but probably don't move the needle for their varsity this fall. I've heard that Michael Majors is going to do both sports, so he won't be available for at least the Jerome meet, Tiger/Grizz, Bob Firman, and Gary Ward as he has soccer games those days. That leaves Vallivue, the tri-meet between Rocky, Meridian, and Owyhee, and possibly Districts provided Rocky doesn't make the district tournament in soccer.
Who are the top incoming freshmen boys and girls? Any other kids moving to Idaho or transferring between schools that might change things?
Eva Rivera and Nadia Kouskov will be huge for Timberline this fall. So will Ruthie Sullivan at Capital.
Ken Uechi (17:31, 5th in the Jerome JV race) and Jonah Bennion (17:57, 9th in the Jerome JV race) are the top 2 freshmen for Rocky.
Majors did run in the Jerome meet. He was #4 in the frosh-soph class for Rocky.
Why did Caldwell bump back a week? It ends up running into the same weekend as Farragut so Capital and Meridian are up there. It could have been a really good girls meet with Rocky, Capital, Timberline, Eagle, Owyhee and Paisley Taylor and Raelee Richardson. Capital vs Rocky vs Timberline would have been nice to see.
Boys should give a lot of clarification about the valley with Rocky, Timberline, Mountain View, Eagle, Centennial and Owyhee all racing.
Why did Caldwell bump back a week? It ends up running into the same weekend as Farragut so Capital and Meridian are up there. It could have been a really good girls meet with Rocky, Capital, Timberline, Eagle, Owyhee and Paisley Taylor and Raelee Richardson. Capital vs Rocky vs Timberline would have been nice to see.
Boys should give a lot of clarification about the valley with Rocky, Timberline, Mountain View, Eagle, Centennial and Owyhee all racing.
It looks like Boise and Eagle have a dual meet on Saturday. I doubt Eagle actually races at Caldwell.
Boise's first larger meet is the Vallivue Scramble. That meet has Boise, Capital, Eagle, Meridian, Mountain View, Owyhee, Rocky, and Timberline. Missing only Borah, Caldwell, Centennial, Kuna, Nampa and Ridgevue from the district meet.
Side note- Nampa girls don't have a complete team. Not sure how that impacts qualification on the girls side.
Bill Meylan has been doing more and more Idaho speed ratings since covid. I imagine it's likely that we will see both Caldwell and Farragut speed ratings to help put things in perspective.
Based off of what the teams had going into the season, Rocky has exceeded expectations and could challenge CDA if they are weaker than expected or in the same ballpark as expected.
Of course the CDA time trial results look REALLY good, but obviously some of those times are a little questionable at the moment. CDA could easily be the best team in the NW and it might not even be close.
This week and it's speed ratings will help a lot in fleshing out the general consensus.
I'm also really interested to see if Timberline (even without Ihmels) can get close to Boise (even with their transfer).
Bill Meylan has been doing more and more Idaho speed ratings since covid. I imagine it's likely that we will see both Caldwell and Farragut speed ratings to help put things in perspective.
Based off of what the teams had going into the season, Rocky has exceeded expectations and could challenge CDA if they are weaker than expected or in the same ballpark as expected.
Of course the CDA time trial results look REALLY good, but obviously some of those times are a little questionable at the moment. CDA could easily be the best team in the NW and it might not even be close.
This week and it's speed ratings will help a lot in fleshing out the general consensus.
I'm also really interested to see if Timberline (even without Ihmels) can get close to Boise (even with their transfer).
Timberline boys vs Boise boys? Timberline was getting beat badly through 4 runners by a team that had doubts if they were even in the top half of the district this year. Granted, that team seems to be better than most would have guessed but I doubt Timberline has closed the gap on Boise.
That 7th spot for Rocky is going to probably shift a lot i am assuming Maxim Beeler is injured since he hasn't ran anything this track season I'm not sure if he will do XC
2022 all over again, when there was a discussion on who would be Newbury Park’s 7th man 😀😀😀
No Drew Donahue for Centennial, Cody Lucas in JV, Mountain View running a complete team, no Eagle varsity, Timberline running Eva Rivera but no Lily Simmonds.
No Drew Donahue for Centennial, Cody Lucas in JV, Mountain View running a complete team, no Eagle varsity, Timberline running Eva Rivera but no Lily Simmonds.
this weekend will be interesting for sure- CDA kids, Stadtlander, + some East Spokane kids in the mix at Farragut and some good team battles at Caldwell. Not sure if anyone realistically will be able to run with/challenge Lucas but maybe Carter Burdick will throw down? Lucas must be doing a workout if he’s listed in the JV race- not sure what’s up there.
Disappointing that Boise won’t be there. Are they nervous to do any big races until kids have more fitness?
this weekend will be interesting for sure- CDA kids, Stadtlander, + some East Spokane kids in the mix at Farragut and some good team battles at Caldwell. Not sure if anyone realistically will be able to run with/challenge Lucas but maybe Carter Burdick will throw down? Lucas must be doing a workout if he’s listed in the JV race- not sure what’s up there.
Disappointing that Boise won’t be there. Are they nervous to do any big races until kids have more fitness?
I would trust that Aaron Olswanger knows what he’s doing and that Boise isn’t ducking competition. When was the last time Boise did Caldwell with a full squad? Seems like they just don’t like the meet.
this weekend will be interesting for sure- CDA kids, Stadtlander, + some East Spokane kids in the mix at Farragut and some good team battles at Caldwell. Not sure if anyone realistically will be able to run with/challenge Lucas but maybe Carter Burdick will throw down? Lucas must be doing a workout if he’s listed in the JV race- not sure what’s up there.
Disappointing that Boise won’t be there. Are they nervous to do any big races until kids have more fitness?
Boise also has a large invite in Portland and squares off against Rocky and every relevant boys team at the Vallivue Scramble. But maybe they should have gone and dominated Jerome, Wood River and Kimberley and they would get your respect. My guess is they beat down Eagle and they look a lot stronger than Timberline in the process, who will get second or a close third to Mt View.
I don’t think Boise has ever been registered for this meet this summer and fall. That’s better than dropping an Utah meet and the 509 meet off your schedule late in the summer or right before the meet.