you can't use improved placing at a cross country meet on a different course with different athletes than the year before as a sign of an improved track time. You even said above XC and track are different things so stop comparing them. Tuohy beat Chelengat by 30 seconds at nationals last year then beat her by 2 seconds at BU. Chmiel and Stearns both beat Olemomoi at Nationals last year and then lost to her by 10 and 15 seconds respectively at BU 2 weeks later.
Fair, I can't really argue. I find it a little hard to believe that Valby is this much an outlier in XC and could really be in *just* 15:05-15:15 shape. That make it so you could be in 15:30-15:40 shape and be getting top 10 in NCAA Cross. It's just kinda a sad state of affairs as that's 80 seconds (in a 5K) from the fitness needed to medal. Contrast that with men's where a top 10 guy at NCAA is expected to be in 13:20 shape, which is maybe 30-35 seconds off medal contention (in a 5K).
This post was edited 55 seconds after it was posted.
Does anyone know when and where the 2023 BU Season Opener section lists will appear? I'm interested in knowing who is listed to run in each event section. Thank you.
Fair, I can't really argue. I find it a little hard to believe that Valby is this much an outlier in XC and could really be in *just* 15:05-15:15 shape. That make it so you could be in 15:30-15:40 shape and be getting top 10 in NCAA Cross. It's just kinda a sad state of affairs as that's 80 seconds (in a 5K) from the fitness needed to medal. Contrast that with men's where a top 10 guy at NCAA is expected to be in 13:20 shape, which is maybe 30-35 seconds off medal contention (in a 5K).
That's not really a shock as the top of men's competition is a large tight group, while the top of women's running is shallow and spread out. Watch nxn to see this same thing at the hs level. Add to that top east African women are not running yet in the ncaa.
Valby/Tuohy are running ncaa records at the 15 min mark for 5k and the east Africans are at the 14min mark. For men the ncaa mark is a quite respectable 13:11.
Does anyone know when and where the 2023 BU Season Opener section lists will appear? I'm interested in knowing who is listed to run in each event section. Thank you.
one would think soon and on lancertiming but nothing yet
rbtrackfan --- thank you. I've been checking there and as you say the section lists have not yet been made available --- I'll keep checking that site. Thank you.
Well, I don’t think either Valby or Tuohy are currently far from 15-flat on a track (outdoors). Which, I suppose, is why some here think Tuohy should hang around in the NCAA, rather than go off somewhere to prepare for the Oly ‘24 Team.
But noooo; it’s rumored that any day we will get the news (backed by her Coach’s previous statement) that she is going, going, gone.
“Gone, gone Gone with the hogshead cask and demijohn, gone with the sugar barrel pickle barrel, milk pan, gone with the tub and the pail and the tierce.”
you can't use improved placing at a cross country meet on a different course with different athletes than the year before as a sign of an improved track time. You even said above XC and track are different things so stop comparing them. Tuohy beat Chelengat by 30 seconds at nationals last year then beat her by 2 seconds at BU. Chmiel and Stearns both beat Olemomoi at Nationals last year and then lost to her by 10 and 15 seconds respectively at BU 2 weeks later.
Fair, I can't really argue. I find it a little hard to believe that Valby is this much an outlier in XC and could really be in *just* 15:05-15:15 shape. That make it so you could be in 15:30-15:40 shape and be getting top 10 in NCAA Cross. It's just kinda a sad state of affairs as that's 80 seconds (in a 5K) from the fitness needed to medal. Contrast that with men's where a top 10 guy at NCAA is expected to be in 13:20 shape, which is maybe 30-35 seconds off medal contention (in a 5K).
To be clear, i do think Valby is in better shape than 15:15 certainly. I wouldn't be surprised if she broke 15 in an all out well-paced effort tomorrow if thats what they were going for.
Im just saying you can't do the whole "She beat a runner with this PB by X seconds means she's in this shape" as XC doesn't translate like that to Track other than knowing the runner very fit right now. Even though its only 2 weeks after nationals, running on an indoor 200m track is a far different affair tactically, even in a time trial.
Lemngole did put 6-12 seconds on most of them (Markezich 3 and Tuohy 5) in the last K so it is worth questioning if a conservative race plan affected the margin. But even if we call it pretty all-out, let's say she's 20-25 seconds ahead of that group. If she's in a pretty conservative 14:55 shape that is allowing for a decent step back (and not a lightning-fast road race), we're presuming 15:10-15:18 fitness (I am shrinking the margin for the shorter race) for the likes of Maatoug, Ramsden, Jepkirui. Doesn't seem crazy at all to me. And Valby has a gap to Lemngole that was pretty big at NCAAs despite a side-stitch that might've cost her a few seconds.
I think the NCAA top women have underachieved at 5,000 as far as time. That's probably going to continue with the pacing being set like this. Tuohy was unfortunately under the weather last year, and then she ran her fast times at the mile and 3K.
Sub 15:15 is still pretty fast by NCAA standards. Sisson set her 15:12 indoor 5k record in 2015. Many runners in the NCAA set their PRs at this meet and the record has not gone down yet, so I don't see an avalanche of runners beating it tomorrow.
Maatoug et al maybe 15:18-15:25. Still a big PR.
What can Markezich do over 5k? I would say around 15:12-15:22. MAYBE 15:10.
I am guessing Valby is in upper 14:50's - 15:05 range. But like others I would not be totally shocked if she runs faster this season.
Lemnegole ran 14:40, but I don't think she displayed 14:40 fitness this season per se. We may see some fast times from her on the track through. She closed comparably to Tuohy last year, but 2022 XC Tuohy was likely as fast or faster. Touhy also ran 15 seconds faster last year at Piane and a similar time at Panorama (19:08) closing about the same (3:02) in a non NCAA final race.
The other big caveat is that some runners (like Kelsey Chmiel) perform wildly better at XC versus track and vice versa. So, we won't really know until they race.
Fair! To the person who said the women aren’t tightly bunched or it’s shallow. The following women can run under 14:15: Hassan, Gidey, Tsegay, Chebet, Kipyegon, Taye. There’s a large cluster between 14:15-14:30. I wasn’t arguing they are gonna run super-fast tomorrow, I don’t think that is the intent. Just that the standard has to get higher. Another thought I had is the idiotic(sexist?) 6K championship distance holds back some of the progress. Why run big mileage in college if the marquee athletes run a 19-minute race, and very few run the 10,000 outdoors as there is more incentive to double in DMR and focus on 5,000/Steeple? I suspect a lot of the men push their mileage to meet the demand of a 10K race.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
I listened to the podcast and both wejo and rojo (especially wejo) think sub-15 is still possible for Valby even with the slower pacing, if she is in sub 15 shape. Just blast the last k or so.
Cranny could certainly do it, but you would have to close pretty hard
Obviously Cranny could not have done that when she was a collegiate.
I thought interesting Rojo’s speculation that a reason the coaches don’t want to see a sub15 (did he say 14:40’s?) is because if someone like Valby did that, a shoe company would pony up a big contract, removing them from the collegiate ranks. That take is probably a bit of hyperbole, but I dunno.
I’d be a bit shocked if she can currently run in the 14:40’s.
I listened to the podcast and both wejo and rojo (especially wejo) think sub-15 is still possible for Valby even with the slower pacing, if she is in sub 15 shape. Just blast the last k or so.
Cranny could certainly do it, but you would have to close pretty hard
my 2 cents is 12:10 + 2:50 = 15:00 and I have to be convinced she could close that in 2:50
Obviously Cranny could not have done that when she was a collegiate.
I thought interesting Rojo’s speculation that a reason the coaches don’t want to see a sub15 (did he say 14:40’s?) is because if someone like Valby did that, a shoe company would pony up a big contract, removing them from the collegiate ranks. That take is probably a bit of hyperbole, but I dunno.
I’d be a bit shocked if she can currently run in the 14:40’s.
Well yes... I am talking about pro Cranny not college Cranny.
I’d be a bit shocked if she can currently run in the 14:40’s.
If she actually is currently even capable of a 14:55, then the idea of going all-in to train for the OlyTrials 5k over the next six months might make sense, for her best interests…
I’d be a bit shocked if she can currently run in the 14:40’s.
If she actually is currently even capable of a 14:55, then the idea of going all-in to train for the OlyTrials 5k over the next six months might make sense, for her best interests…
But she’s going to listen to her coaches, and her agent(?) is probably aligned, somewhat, with the big stakeholders in the sport.
If she actually is currently even capable of a 14:55, then the idea of going all-in to train for the OlyTrials 5k over the next six months might make sense, for her best interests…
But she’s going to listen to her coaches, and her agent(?) is probably aligned, somewhat, with the big stakeholders in the sport.
As an outside observer, I wonder if there might still be the possibility of some growth in sponsorship activity, based on what ON is doing with L&L
But she’s going to listen to her coaches, and her agent(?) is probably aligned, somewhat, with the big stakeholders in the sport.
As an outside observer, I wonder if there might still be the possibility of some growth in sponsorship activity, based on what ON is doing with L&L
Besides performance the other thing they're looking for is marketability. L&L have that with their videos. Even before this deal they were touting different products for runners. Not that many have that marketability. Valby has performance, and let's face it, looks, so she is a possibility.
As an outside observer, I wonder if there might still be the possibility of some growth in sponsorship activity, based on what ON is doing with L&L
Besides performance the other thing they're looking for is marketability. L&L have that with their videos. Even before this deal they were touting different products for runners. Not that many have that marketability. Valby has performance, and let's face it, looks, so she is a possibility.
She is very very unique, in that regard And like I just said on the L&L thread, apparel dwarfs the running shoe market.
I don’t know how long Valby’s window lasts, but there is an old saying, “strike while the iron is hot.”
Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win a LetsRun t-shirt.Help us build the best running shoe review site for a chance to win one of 10 LetsRun t-shirts.