Valby 19:17! 27 seconds faster than Tuohy in 2022 in far worse conditions!

19:16* could possibly be an all American this season, if she continues to run like this

I already said what her time would be, over 20 min.

Based on the limited data (results vs Ole Miss, Lipscomb, Wisconsin and Furman runners at LakeFront) a guess of about 20:00 or so at Nuttycombe seems reasonable - which might make her a contender for top 20 at Nationals. But she won that race by 24 seconds so there might be more. Not sure the more recent result reveals more.

I took that into account, comparing multiple results with Tuckwood, figuring Tuckwood hasn’t improved y-over-y too much.

Does that Lacctic site provide this type of estimate?

below are the 2023 results for her with the first column the "5000 m rating" (TiC) for lack of a better word.

16:01 19:16 10/14/23 Santa Clara Bronco Invitational 6.9 52%
15:33 19:20 9/29/23 Sean Earl Loyola Lakefront Invitational 6.2 48%
17:10 13:56 9/9/23 Waves Invitational 5.1 0%
15:59 15:59 5/24/23 NCAA West Preliminary Round - 5000m Track 5 0%

https://www.lacctic.com/runners/49846

From the site
TiCs can be roughly be interpreted as "5k equivalents," giving the average 5k PR of people who peform similarly. However, it is important to note that the primary component in your TiC scores is how you perform relative to your peers in cross country races, and how your peers perform relative to others. The conversion to track performances is for interpretability and not necesarily an indicator of 5k fitness. For example, an excellent cross country runner may have much better TiCs than track times.

https://www.lacctic.com/about/

The data for Tuckwood indicates some improvement

https://www.lacctic.com/runners/49845

“My coach told me to trust my instincts, so I just went off my gut and got out good and stayed good, I guess,” Valby said.
She was unaware of the size of the lead she had on Tuohy. “I didn’t know where we were at, cuz there was no time on the lead cart, so I was just like, ‘You know what? I’m running blindly.’ So I was just giving my all for the team.”
With conference, regional and national meets over the coming weeks, what’s ahead for Valby as she and Tuohy will certainly be at it again in Charlottesville?
“Just to keep improving and keep our team going.”

trackandfieldnews.com

Nuttycombe XC Women — Valby & Northern Arizona Splash Ahead - Track & Field News

Sieg Lindstrom

VERONA, WISCONSIN, October 13 — Wet, slick and oftentimes slippery course conditions, engendered by a fairly steady rain that regularly... Read More

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i wonder if she is still going on cross training, or if she is able to run train this year. Remember how good she was mid season last year. The lacctic rating that put her around 14:40 or whatever. But she didn't really improve.

the thing with cross training filled workouts, is that you are always sort of in a state of taper. you just aren't going to ever be beat up the way somebody on a full running schedule is. So when you get to the end of the season, the person who tapers off of 70 miles per week on the ground, is going to make bigger gains than the person who is hopping off of an elliptical.

Valby is not difficult to root for, outside of a couple people on this sight, so i hope it's a great battle, but there are a lot of variables that none of us are aware of at this point.

I'm glad that both look healthy. Obviously, no one (at least no thoughtful person) in a million years would recommend unhealthy or inadequate fueling.

That said, there are physics involved with motion. There is a reason that NASCAR or F1 vehicles do not add extra unnecessary weight to their machines. There is a reason why horse jockeys are not 200+ lbs. There is a reason why airlines charge for suitcases, etc etc. There is a reason why racing shoes and apparel are light. There is a reason that Plus-sized runners don't qualify individually for the NCAA D1 XC national meet. Sorry, it is what it is.

I leave it to anyone reading this to come up with the obvious conclusion. Perhaps things will be shored up in the next month so that one runner isn't running with an all-natural 24/7 weight-vest, and maybe that will lead to a different result.

I dunno, but I doubt Valby has dropped cross-training, because it’s worked so well for her.

The bolded part of your thesis is making some broad general assumptions.

I think it might be a mistake to just assume development of peak running fitness will always require peak mileage, rather than splitting training volume between running and cross-training.

Something that still might be up for investigation is the effects of diet on inflammation and recovery, for a particular body type.

WTAF????

Regarding the “didn’t really improve”, remember, she picked up an injury, sometime after cross-country.

Can we conclude from that one needs the high running volume to prevent injury? Not necessarily; it depends upon whether full recovery and adaptation is occurring; otherwise, higher running volume can still increase chances of injury.

And of course, the intensity of the running volume, and that of the cross-training volume, are factors playing into recovery and adaptation.

Look at the picture in post #129. Is it not obvious to you?

I think a huge testament to the Valby training approach is the current results of the high schooler Elizabeth Leachman, who seems to follow it.

mmmm no I think hsxccoach was not talking about year-to-year improvement, but rather about the short term improvement that a high mileage runner gets when cutting down mileage and sharpening for race season. They are suggesting that KT may be faster next month while PV might not have any improvement because she is always race-ready.

Only thing obvious to me is your comment is bulls**t.

You're calling basic laws of physics bulls**t.

Obviously, Valby is continuing to improve y-o-y.

The question, then, is whether a dramatic taper improvement coming off of strictly running volume is bigger than the taper improvement coming off of training volume that is split between running and cross-training. I tried to answer that; I think it is premature to make such a conclusion, and depends upon a complex interaction of multiple factors.